Thread by @ArmineYalnizyan

Precis of what the Conservative childcare plan would pay out, and to whom by @AtkinsonCentre
Would reach 60% of families that file taxes with childcare expenses.
Average benefit: $1,300 (a year)
<300 families would get the max $6K tax credit.
(!)

mailchi.mp/utoronto/ontar…
/2

It appears to be modelled on the Ontario Tax Credit.
FAO says that costs $475M in 2021-22, $460 on average ongoing. fao-on.org/en/Blog/Public…
Ontario has 38% of the kids, so nationally approximately $1.2B a year.
The Liberals promised $30B over 5.
This would be ~$6B over 5.
/3

The FAO also makes clear that most of that $6B would be going to better off families: 2/3rds to top half of families ($63.7K or more), and only 3% to families in the bottom quarter ($21,4K or less)
Mistake in first tweet: the <300 families getting full $6K is for Ontario.
/4

That translates to 0.1% of all recipients of the CARE tax benefit in Ontario get the maximum $6K. If that's 38% of all recipients in a Canadian version modeled on this, then roughly 788 families across Canada would get the full $6K. Not even 1K families.
/5

I hope I didn't get the math wrong, but they haven't offered much information about anything, and the comment that parents get up to $6K with their tax credit approach is a little misleading.
/6

No surprise: modest help (average $1.3K/yr) means FAO shows modest boost to job rates (6-15K more jobs in ON; that's 15-39K Canada-wide).
"on every level tax credits fail as a funding mechanism for child care."
Read the @AtkinsonCentre precis here
mailchi.mp/utoronto/ontar…
~fin