Surprised that the campaign hasn't yet featured more debate about the 8 bilateral fed/prov/terr deals for early learning and childcare, 50 years in the making.
WAY more than an affordability issue. Critical to equity, economic recovery, and future economic potential. #Elxn44
Some key facts about the Care Economy (paid activity in health/social assistance plus education sectors):
12.6% of GDP , and 21.3% of all jobs in June 2021, up from 12.3% of GDP and 20.4% of all jobs in February 2020, before the pandemic hit.
Nothing rivals its scale #Elxn44
In the past year, unfilled vacancies shot up 53% in hospitals, and 49% in nursing and residential care facilities. Almost 100,000 healthcare sector jobs went unfilled by Q2 2021 (in a workforce of over 2.5 million people). #CareEconomyDataRoom #Elxn44
Healthcare professionals have a comparatively old demographic profile.
In 2020, over a third (34.5%) of registered nurses were aged 50 or older and 39% of doctors are 55 or older.
It takes 10 years to train a doctor; 4 years to train a nurse.
Ask the people who want to represent you in Parliament:
What's their plan to ensure we have the qualified care we need when we need it?
What's the time frame for doing this? #CareEconomyDataRoom #Elxn44
The # of hospital beds per 1,000 people fell from 4.4 to 2.2, 1997-2020 in Canada. (Finland:3.6; France:5.9; Germany:8)
Wait lists are long for long term care and licensed early learning and child care.
What's their plan to improve the Care Economy? #CareEconomyDataRoom #Elxn44
In 2020, only about half of Canada’s 2.3 million preschoolers (aged 0-5) received care from someone other than their parents. (This share was 75% in Quebec.) Only a quarter of our youngest children are in in a licenced/regulated care facility. #CareEconomyDataRoom #Elxn44
That means roughly 26% of our youngest neighbours (preschoolers, aged 0-5) spend an unlicensed, unregulated paid care setting when they are not with their parents. Is that good enough for you? #CareEconomyDataRoom #Elxn44
Of the $7B in public funding spent in 2020 on regulated child care, 43% went to for-profit providers across Canada. For-profit facilities provide most of the paid childcare in QC (53%) YK (54%), NS (56%), NB (67%) and NL (70%). #CareEconomyDataRoom #Elxn44
For-profit long-term care facilities account for only 29% of long-term care Canada-wide. But 57% of providers are for-profit in Ontario, 44% in Nova Scotia, and 37% in B.C. #CareEconomyDataRoom #Elxn44
Ask your candidates:
What is your position on the delivery of care through for-profit services in the Care Economy?
Should public dollars pay for profits? If so, in what instances? #CareEconomyDataRoom #Elxn44
From registered nurses to personal care workers, only 40% of staff in have full-time work in the long-term sector of care in Ontario. Over 1 in 10 are casual/on-call employees. Turnover is higher for part-timers and casuals, the majority of workers. #CareEconomyDataRoom #Elxn44
Health care workers account for almost 20% of all COVID-19 infections in Canada, a rate that is double the global health care worker infection rate (10%). #CareEconomyDataRoom #Elxn44
Ask your candidates:
Do you think that every job should be a good job in a sector that is essential for the functioning of everything else in the economy?
If so, how would you guarantee that? #CareEconomyDataRoom #Elxn44
Without enough paid care, women are more likely than men to pick up the unpaid care.
More women (64%) were responsible for homeschooling children due to school closures during the pandemic than men (19%). #CareEconomyDataRoom #Elxn44
There is not enough paid care in the Care Economy. More women (274,100) than men (163,320) have received Canada’s Recovery Caregiving Benefit so far.
February 2020-July 2021: men saw 362,000 more paid jobs, but 68,000 fewer women now have paid jobs #CareEconomyDataRoom #Elxn44
Ask your candidates what they think the role of the government should be to ensure a full recovery - which includes women participating at least at the rates they were before the pandemic, if you want things to get "back to normal" economically. #CareEconomyDataRoom #Elxn44
No recovery without a shecovery.
No shecovery without childcare.
Every party is offering more funding for the Care Economy. What is our money buying?
Ask them if their party's plan is tied to national standards of care that are enforceable.
What is their view of enforceable standards of care?
Precis of what the Conservative childcare plan would pay out, and to whom by @AtkinsonCentre
Would reach 60% of families that file taxes with childcare expenses.
Average benefit: $1,300 (a year)
<300 families would get the max $6K tax credit.
(!)
It appears to be modelled on the Ontario Tax Credit.
FAO says that costs $475M in 2021-22, $460 on average ongoing. fao-on.org/en/Blog/Public…
Ontario has 38% of the kids, so nationally approximately $1.2B a year.
The Liberals promised $30B over 5.
This would be ~$6B over 5.
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The FAO also makes clear that most of that $6B would be going to better off families: 2/3rds to top half of families ($63.7K or more), and only 3% to families in the bottom quarter ($21,4K or less)
Mistake in first tweet: the <300 families getting full $6K is for Ontario.
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3.5M households with kids (1+ parent), + plenty of HHds deferring having kids because of costs, + grandparents who help. Big voting bloc.
Est'd 2.4M households in core housing need.
It's assumed that there are more votes for housing than for childcare, but the numbers are not far off.
The pandemic saw big drop off in women's labour force participation for women 55+ (chunk of whom are grandmas, trying to help out their kids because there. is. no. childcare.)
Too many people are freaking out that they can't have the life they thought they'd be living by now not just because they can't buy a house, or rental costs are pushing them out of the places they want to live, but because they can't form a family or support it if they have one.
@AbigailBimman Up to $6K for *families* with incomes under $30K
Also you can work while on maternity leave without getting whacked up to $1K a month, $250 a week! Yay?
More paragraphs on how you'll get time off if your child dies or you suffer a stillbirth/miscarriage than info on childcare.
@AbigailBimman Note: if Ontario (largest labour market) had signed a deal with the feds, the pledge to drop parent costs by 50% in 18 mths, $10/day average in 5 yrs would mean parents would save much more $.
For infant care in Toronto ($1685/mth) difference at 50% is $4k/yr more with Lib plan!
@AbigailBimman The two biggest voting blocs, ON and QC would be worse off. 1. QC doesn't have a cost problem, so the refundable tax credit, even for the poorest families, wouldn't offer much "cash for care" help. It has a "not enough good care" problem, but this platform doesn't address need.
Unemployment is 5.4% in the U.S.
could fall to 4% by year’s end.
#HumbleFed’s @neelkashkari has seriously thoughtful answers to main Q:
What definition of full employment is relevant in the early 21st century for monopol?
One (of many) interesting issues: official UR (unemployment rate) is an average of many average unemployment rates of different demographic groups. One way to be sure labour market slack is falling is by seeing falling inequality between, say, Black and "official" UR.
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UR isn't the only/best indicator of labour market slack.
(Jesse Jackson, I think, used to say "There was full employment under slavery too.")
Quality of work is important.
So are LF participation rates. (UR drops if more people drop out of the labour force. #shecession)
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Soon after, @anima_tk invited me to have a deeper dive with her on the 4-day work week, a trendy policy idea emerging from pandemic pressures.
I don't think so. Here's why. And what I think will *have* to happen re shorter work time. #FutureOfWorkerstheglobeandmail.com/podcasts/the-d…
But the reason I'm writing this thread is that staycation has permitted the time to listen to/read some weird and wonderful ideas (and play in the garden, which provides a type of surprise/joy I don't get from anything else 👇🏽).
Have been crunching numbers on the relative size of the #CareEconomy in Canada, re paid work and contribution to GDP.
First, definition: health services (includes eldercare, home care, long-term care, social assistance) and education services (from childcare through PSE).
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Why include education services? Because it develops the potential of our youngest citizens, labour market entrants, and those with jobs or displaced from jobs.
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Pre-pandemic (2019) the Care Economy's % of GDP: 12.3% [health 7%, educ 5.3%]. Was 12.25% in 2020.
cf
Real estate: 12.7% (13.7% in 2020)
Manufacturing: 10% (9.5% in 2020)
Construction: 7.2% (7.3%)
Finance/Insurance: 6.9% (7.6%)
Oil and Gas: 5.6% (5.6%)
Retail: 5% (5.2%)
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