Thread by @SeaSkipper

As #Taliban takes over #Afghanistan, US Military is in spotlight for their failure to win the ‘forever war’. A #thread to contrast the Political-Military Strategy of US in Iraq n Afghanistan. A study of 2 Wars, 2 Presidents (Bush n Obama) and 2 Generals (Petraeus n McChrystal)1/n

"War is a continuation of politics by other means." Military Strategy flows from a clear political direction. Interesting to contrast the results of US intervention in Iraq n Afghanistan n how the Military achieved different results based on Political direction and backing 2/n

Iraq in 2007, when Gen Petraeus, took command, the situation was grim. Increasing violence had led to an escalation of killings of civilians in Iraq, with up to 150 deaths daily in Baghdad. Iraq was sliding out of control toward civil war and the US toward another Vietnam 3/n

Popular sentiment held that the best option was to cut US losses n disengage from a fight they were losing. Gen Casey, the outgoing commander, had supported a gradual drawdown of U.S. forces and a handoff of security tasks to Iraqi forces even as the situation got worse 4/n

Yet by the time General Petraeus turned over command in September of 2008, he had achieved a turnaround in Iraq that seemed almost miraculous. He led “the surge” that achieved successes that were unimaginable 19 months before. Gen Petraeus believed there needed to be..5/n

“a surge in four areas: not just the military, but also the civilian side of the U.S. government, the Iraqi forces, and Iraqi political will”. General Petraeus had excellent rapport with President Bush. He personally briefed President Bush who approved his "surge" in Iraq 6/n

By December 2007 in Dora in southern Baghdad, one of the Al Qaeda strongholds in the city and one of the most violent areas, Iraqi deaths had dropped to one-tenth of the previous levels and attacks against U.S. troops had completely stopped 7/n

Bush met with Petraeus in Kuwait in Jan 2008 n stated to the press, “My attitude is, if (Petraeus) didn’t want to continue the drawdown, that’s fine with me, in order to make sure we succeed...If you want to slow her down, fine; it’s up to you.’ (Strong Political backing) 8/n

Petraeus may not have brought the Iraq war to its conclusion, but what he did accomplish will surely be enshrined in the annals of U.S. military history. Petraeus gave Iraq a chance to climb out of its civil war n America a chance to redeem itself for the errors it made there 9/n

The lessons from Iraq were clear, Political-Military Strategy has to be in sync. The Military Commander on Ground needs the backing of the Political leadership to succeed. Now let us shift to Afghanistan, US invaded Afghanistan in 2001 and its mission was to catch Bin Laden 10/n

The invasion was successful even though the US forces could not catch OBL in Tora Bora as they were not allowed by US Govt to block his escape by deploying in Pakistan’s tribal areas. An opportunity missed due lack of political support and clearance to operate in Pakistan 11/n

In 2009, Obama announced “We have a clear and focused goal: to disrupt, dismantle and defeat Al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan.” He ordered another 21,000 troops to Kabul and fired Gen. David McKiernan and replaced him Gen. Stanley McChrystal 12/n

McChrystal was a Special Forces Officer n an Iraq War hero where he was credited with killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq. The Gen first met Obama a week after he took office. McChrystal thought Obama looked “uncomfortable n intimidated”. (bad start) 13/n

The General conducted his review and its conclusion was dire: If we didn’t send another 40,000 troops – we were in danger of “mission failure.” The review got leaked to Press. The White House was furious. McChrystal, they felt, was trying to bully Obama to sent more troops 14/n

Some Politicians felt that McChrystal should be fired for insubordination for disclosing information that he should have said only in private to the President of the United States. Somehow McChrystal not only survived this episode but Obama gave him 30,000 additional troops 15/n

McChrystal once dismissed the counterterrorism strategy being advocated by Vice President Biden as “shortsighted,” saying it would lead to a state of “Chaos-istan.” This earned him a smackdown from the Obama. Message to McChrystal was clear: STFU n keep a lower profile. 16/n

More trouble followed, an article "The Runaway General", reported that McChrystal n his staff mocked civilian government officials, including Joe Biden, NSA Jones, US Ambassador to Afghanistan and Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke. 17/n

To control the damage, McChrystal called Vice-President Biden to apologize n issued a written apology. However, Obama summoned McChrystal from Afghanistan to White House. During meeting with Obama, McChrystal tendered his resignation, which the President accepted. 18/n

After McChrystal’s dismissal, the US Military lost its voice in Afghanistan and the military was essentially doing a holding mission waiting for it to be recalled back. The contrast in Iraq and Afghanistan highlights the importance of sync between political and military...19/n

..strategy and good communication between the political leadership and the military. We in India have our experience in 1962 war with China n IPKF intervention in Sri Lanka when the political-military strategy was not in sync and failed to achieve desired national aims 20/n

Post Script: Gen Petraeus went on to become CIA Director and is a top 4 General in US History. Gen McChrystal in 2016 rejected Trump’s offer to be his running mate. In May 2017, Netflix released the film War Machine in which Brad Pitt played McChrystal n/n