Thread by @CalibreObscura

#Afghanistan: Whilst I still think that the TTP is more important than IS-K when it comes to discussion of the situation in/around Afg. in coming months, I think it's reasonable to consider what the group (may be) looking to do. A few notes of mine:

1: The Islamic State was totally aware that the Afghan Govt. was going to fall, as was everyone else except Biden and his sycophants. This is no obstacle to their operations, as the new Taliban state inherits the same structural liabilities.

2: The Taliban's "CT" abilities shouldn't be assumed to be superior to NDS & USG, and IS has been engaging in a slow burn asasssination campaign against Taliban commanders, particularly those responsible for the demolition of IS in 2019.

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1414913950253264899

3: IS operations are (obviously) ideological (Think of the continuous IEDs against the Hazaras). Regardless of whether you regard the "new Taliban" as the sudden liberals that they're presenting themselves to be, this works both ways; this is ammo for IS-K & a real opportunity.

4: IS is very likely to have benefited from recent prison breaks; tho senior IS leadership will have been wisely dealt with or kept in prison by the Taliban, it is nigh on inevitable that some fighters will have escaped. Only variable is how many & whom.

https://twitter.com/abdsayedd/status/1427362347593736199

5: Khorasan is a strategic priority for IS & despite international eye being away from them, 0 reason for Shahab al-Muhajir's strategic direction to end; IS sees Afg. as a base for expansion into Central/South Asia, in contrast to Taliban stated goals.

undocs.org/en/S/2021/486

6: I don't want to say that IS-K will launch "show stopper" mass casualty attacks in Afg. (let alone in Pak/India) any time soon; I suspect they're more focused in the next couple of mo. of keeping cells organised & integrating militants who've managed to escape custody.

7: However, in reference to 6: There is as yet 0 evidence that the complex cells that managed to launch serious operations in Kabul & Jalalabad have been intercepted or otherwise taken out of action by either former Govt. or the Taliban; so the ability remains. Time will tell.

8: It's also unclear what Assistance that the Taliban could/may receive from outside parties in combating IS-K; or what the United States' intentions are. Regardless, Western CT vis-à-vis C-IS efforts in Afgh. clearly negatively affected by the withdrawal.

That's just a few notes of mine; not an expert™ but maybe of interest to some.

Cc @Valle_Riccardo_ @abdsayedd who've been doing great work on this area

In reference to point (3):

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1427636075430825998