Thread by @ryanmauro

Here's what happens next:

1) Al-Qaeda, etc. expand in #Afghanistan. Maybe Zawahiri arrives from #Pakistan. Hopefully opens up a chance to kill him.

2) Tribal resistance against #Taliban begins, Northern Alliance 2.0 starts forming.

(continued)

3) #Taliban success is interpreted by Islamists as Allah's approval of their ideology.

Increased "homegrown" terror by those inspired by Taliban & Al-Qaeda.

3) #ISIS fights #Taliban & #AlQaeda in #Afghanistan.

ISIS accuses them of being sell-outs for limiting jihad on West and being slightly less evil towards Muslims than they would be.

4) Anti-interventionists claim #Taliban is therefore a CT partner in #Afghanistan & not responsible for pro-Taliban/AQ terror that they don't directly orchestrate.

5) Regular U.S. drone strikes, covert operations, etc. restart in Afghanistan. President maintains the war is still over because limited missions like this don't qualify as "war." Compares to actions in Somalia, Syria, Pakistan, Yemen, etc.

6) #Afghan version of Iraqi "Anbar Awakening" gains traction, which #Taliban attributes to covert aid from U.S., Abraham Accords signatories (and of course "Satanic-Zionist conspirators).

7) #Taliban responds with massacres & threats to fully unleash jihadists to attack U.S. soil if there's any covert or overt aid to Northern Alliance 2.0. or continued drone ops against AQ in #Afghanistan.

8) Combination of terrorist threats to the West, outrage at #Taliban's human rights abuses and opportunity created by Northern Alliance 2.0 compels U.S. & allies to assist tribal / ethnic resistance.

9) Repeat of opening phases of Operation Enduring Freedom in #Afghanistan with U.S.-led air support & covert ops dramatically reducing #Taliban control of the country.

10) U.S. judges that advances in technology, intelligence, and situation on the ground enable the threat from reduced #Taliban-held territories to be relatively "contained" through airstrikes and dealing with Northern Alliance 2.0.

11) The despair of the remaining #Taliban-held areas serves as a constant reminder to #Afghanistan population of what will happen if they don't resist the Islamist theocrats and teach alternative ways to interpret their faith.

Abraham Accords countries & #SaudiArabia assist.

12) U.S. declines to escalate effort to "nation-building" or massive ground campaign.

Tribal/community-based strategy in #Afghanistan embraced with $$$ incentives like foreign investment & covert payments & aid rewarding tribes based on their counter-terrorism & human rights.

13) Tribes / Local communities embrace incentives prosper and incrementally modernize.

Tribes / Local communities who embrace #Taliban fail, wonder why Allah isn't blessing them anymore & experience drone strikes & other counter-terrorism measures to contain terrorist threat.

14) Effort in #Afghanistan then becomes comparable to Somalia, Niger or Syria.

Long-trend is decreasing popular support for #Taliban, Al-Qaeda and Islamism in general, even though the West still hasn't begun fighting the ideological war like an ideological war.

15) In U.S., one side calls it "our war in #Afghanistan" & demands an end to involvement. Other side says its more nuanced and doesn't qualify as a "war."

Debate mostly based on partisan theater.

Public maintains support for limited role as a worthy cost/benefit investment.

16) Third attempt at "Justice League" movie fails.

Rated R "Batman," however, works.

SJW studios remake "Saving Private Ryan," except all characters are strong Amazons, transgenders & furries.

President #JakePaul endorses UBI but Congress says $100,000 per month is too much