Kids #COVID19 sit rep from England🧵
I've seen some completely incorrect comments about the current situation with kids cases and hospitalisations in England, so let's clear up where we're at!
1. Cases in children started falling well before schools closed for summer
1/
I've seen some completely incorrect comments about the current situation with kids cases and hospitalisations in England, so let's clear up where we're at!
1. Cases in children started falling well before schools closed for summer
1/
Cases acquired in the last week of school would not become symptomatic and get tested until the following week
Any changes in trends due to schools closing should show up the week AFTER schools closed, not the week before (obviously)
2/
Any changes in trends due to schools closing should show up the week AFTER schools closed, not the week before (obviously)
2/
2. Cases are not falling in children due to summer holidays
Cases are actually relatively flat (or rising) in most age groups, although there was a small uplift in young adults before others
Possibly a new rise coming in older teens secondary to a large surfing festival 🏄
3/
Cases are actually relatively flat (or rising) in most age groups, although there was a small uplift in young adults before others
Possibly a new rise coming in older teens secondary to a large surfing festival 🏄
3/
3. Trends in cases are matched in hospitalisations
These dropped and are now flat at relatively high levels compared to previous waves, but comparable to or lower than we commonly see for other respiratory viruses in children
Ratio of cases to hospitalisations around 200:1
4/
These dropped and are now flat at relatively high levels compared to previous waves, but comparable to or lower than we commonly see for other respiratory viruses in children
Ratio of cases to hospitalisations around 200:1
4/
Note this is all hospital admissions who test positive for SARS-CoV-2, whether admitted for #COVID19 or not
Unlike adults, incidental positives have a huge impact on kids data
Up to 40% in California
hosppeds.aappublications.org/content/hosppe…
33% in London last Autumn
thelancet.com/journals/lanch…
5/
Unlike adults, incidental positives have a huge impact on kids data
Up to 40% in California
hosppeds.aappublications.org/content/hosppe…
33% in London last Autumn
thelancet.com/journals/lanch…
5/
What does this mean on the ground?
In some areas we are seeing more children in hospital with #COVID19 than in previous waves, but these numbers are dwarfed by what we're experiencing with RSV and other resp viruses
We're exceptionally busy, but not with #COVID19
6/
In some areas we are seeing more children in hospital with #COVID19 than in previous waves, but these numbers are dwarfed by what we're experiencing with RSV and other resp viruses
We're exceptionally busy, but not with #COVID19
6/
4. No sign yet of a rise in cases of PIMS-TS/MIS-C
This was expected in the last few weeks, roughly 1month after the peak in cases
It may still appear, but as of yet no sign of an increase, which is most welcome news
We don't know why...
7/
This was expected in the last few weeks, roughly 1month after the peak in cases
It may still appear, but as of yet no sign of an increase, which is most welcome news
We don't know why...
7/
Summary:
-No evidence schools closing had a meaningful impact on kids cases relative to other factors
-Cases currently flat at high levels
-Hospitalisations flat and high, but not compared to other resp viruses in kids
-No increase in MIS-C yet, despite being overdue
8/end
-No evidence schools closing had a meaningful impact on kids cases relative to other factors
-Cases currently flat at high levels
-Hospitalisations flat and high, but not compared to other resp viruses in kids
-No increase in MIS-C yet, despite being overdue
8/end
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