Thread by @apsmunro

Amazing education settings outbreak data from the Delta #COVID19 outbreak in NSW 🇦🇺

Primary/Secondary schools mostly closed, so limited info to draw on (Attack rate v low, <2%)

BUT early years settings fully open with no masks!

What happened? 🧵

ncirs.org.au/covid-19-in-sc…

1/

There was secondary transmission in 16/32 settings

If the index was an adult, decent amounts of transmission - 17% AR to adults, only 8.1% to the kids

If the index was a child, minimal transmission - 1.3% to an adult, 1.8% to another child

Over 95% of contacts tested

2/

Once cases were back home, as you would expect with Delta, there was a lot of transmission

70% of all household contacts became infected

In 57% of households, everyone got infected (overdispersion in action)

3/

Take home messages:

- In early years settings, children have very low transmission risk (even with no masks) - vaccinating adults is key
- Household attack rates with Delta are very high (if someone in your house has it, assume you have it/will get it too)

4/

Forgot to mention - this household transmission data is in the setting of very low rates of adult vaccination

We can safely assume these rates would be significantly lower with vaccinated household members

5/

Great coverage in @guardian of the study and input from some of the specialists involved in Australia

Hopefully reassuring for our Aussie friends during a difficult time in their pandemic

Note how studies often don't back up early anecdotes...

6/
theguardian.com/australia-news…