Previous ONS statistics have been widely misused, and difficult to interpret due to unavailable methods
This is all put to bed now. Excellent, transparent comparisons with a suitable control group.
Importantly, it includes COVID cases which would be missed by NHS testing
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One statistic stands out
At both 4 and 12 weeks, MORE children aged 2 - 11y in the control group were experiencing symptoms than in those who tested positive for #COVID19
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Rates of continuous symptoms going on for 12w were also extremely low for kids aged 2 - 16y who had tested positive for #COVID19 (only around 1%)
This was generally low across the study (3% of COVID +ve vs 0.5% of controls)
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Even using a "catch all" term by asking people if they self diagnosed themselves with long covid, rates in children were still extremely low
Especially those with symptoms which impacted daily living (only 1% of children aged 2 - 11y
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Despite a huge amount of concern, these statistics back up what we are seeing in practice with kids
Whilst debilitating for those it does affect, #LongCovid is not a huge problem for the overwhelming majority of children who are infected with #SARSCoV2
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Hopefully soon we can move into more specific nomenclature
Children with isolated anosmia or post viral cough should not be categorised together with children who have the more typically considered "long covid" symptoms of fatigue, brain fog, breathlessness etc
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I should add - there is a zombie statistic going around that 1/7 children get long covid. This is nonsense.
It it based on a complete misunderstanding of the CLoCK study (see thread here)
Loads of people will now have heard of RSV for the first time
Here is a quick thread on the disease it causes (bronchiolitis) and why we DONT use salbutamol inhalers/nebulisers to treat it - they can even make it worse!
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Bronchiolitis does what is says on the tin
It’s infection with a virus (usually RSV, but can be others) affecting the small airways (“bronchioles”) causing inflammation (“itis”)
It causes wheezing, coughing, and difficulty breathing
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Usually it affects babies <1y of age (although in the US definitions are a bit different…) and is seasonal, coming in waves every winter
It is the most common cause of hospitalisation of children, usually for breathing support, extra oxygen, or help feeding
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I've seen some completely incorrect comments about the current situation with kids cases and hospitalisations in England, so let's clear up where we're at!
1. Cases in children started falling well before schools closed for summer
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Cases acquired in the last week of school would not become symptomatic and get tested until the following week
Any changes in trends due to schools closing should show up the week AFTER schools closed, not the week before (obviously)
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2. Cases are not falling in children due to summer holidays
Cases are actually relatively flat (or rising) in most age groups, although there was a small uplift in young adults before others
Possibly a new rise coming in older teens secondary to a large surfing festival 🏄
Something I think we’ve been very bad at separating when trying to help people understand risk during the pandemic, especially for kids, is:
1. Risk of getting covid 2. Risk of being seriously ill IF you get covid
When we talk about risk, these things are very different
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The first is a product of:
-Prevalence (how many people are infected)
-Exposure (where are you that’s likely to get you infected)
-Variant (per exposure, more by Delta than others)
-Immunity (best by vax, or else infection)
These things change over time, so risk does too
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The latter is really a product of:
-Age (risk increases exponentially)
-Comorbidities (e.g. for children, neurodisability or cardiac diseases)
-Immunity
It is not clear whether variants significantly impact this risk - they may somewhat, but it is very uncertain
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