The Bond Yield Rally Missing One Final Uptick Before Move Lower Into J Hole Event; Equity Futures May Therefore Make One Final Uptick Into Late Europe Session Tuesday
5/X There is a missing downtick in TN (uptick in the 10Yr yield cash), before yields are coming down.
6/X This probably explains the missing the final wave in LABU.
7/7 We will likely see that final uptick during Asian/Europe trade. That means if we wait for the rebound from the initial sell off after a top, we could be selling sometime during early NY session, Tuesday tomorrow.
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8/8 Tim and I believe that breach of these lines should trigger equity selling, and bond buying (yields falling). These purple support lines correspond to important support levels for ES, YM, NQ. However, we prioritize ES, YM, and RTY. NQ tends to get a lift from falling yields.
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2/X Tim and I expect the yield, which is just completing a five-series, to ratchet higher on a normal pullback probably circa 40 pct of the Yield decline from August 26, then resumes the downward trend.
3/X That should trigger a ratchet higher in YM of at least 50% of the fall from 35,456 top, then also resumes the downward trend.
2/X It started with a post from @RM13 -- stalwart, resident options and ETF veteran at PAM:
3/X My reply:
If one reads carefully Rafa -- that's adding to the TGA at circa year end. ZH calls it tightening (but they have targeted the wrong asset class) -- it is actually adding the kind of liquidity that really matters to risk assets (e.g., equities) --
2/X It's again "quaking-in-my-boots time" for the Crypto Universe. I suggest you side.step a few weeks (2 to 4 weeks) of lower prices. We buy again sometime in September (maybe the 1st weeks, but we will fine-tune that). Bossman also itching to go back to the fray.
3/X Change Rate in TSF has not meaningfully risen; commodity prices (Base Metals, Crude Oil) at risk until May 2022. China Govt Expenditures, Total Social Financing (TSF), M2 Money Supply, Brent Oil, Copper
1/X Rising Bank Reserve Creation, And Upswing In Systemic Liquidity Inflows Should Launch A Seasonal Upcycle For Equities, Yields, And Gold; Downswing For The US Dollar (DXY)
Full presentation at Seeking Alpha:
2/X This is the Big Picture for DXY and Gold (from liquidity point of view) that works for me. Sharply rising liquidity in the form of Bank Reserves boosts equities and Gold, and kills the US Dollar (DXY) via the QTM. Gold (yellow line in the chart below) is at the verge . . .
3/X . . . of a sharp take-off after the Fed's Jackson Hole confab, rising in the wake of a new equity seasonal bull phase.