1/X AUGUST 23, 2021.

PRE NY CLOSE BRIEF:.

The Bond Yield Rally Missing One Final Uptick Before Move Lower Into J Hole Event; Equity Futures May Therefore Make One Final Uptick Into Late Europe Session Tuesday

Article at Seeking Alpha:

seekingalpha.com/instablog/9103…
2/X Image
3/X Image
4/X Image
5/X There is a missing downtick in TN (uptick in the 10Yr yield cash), before yields are coming down. Image
6/X This probably explains the missing the final wave in LABU. Image
7/7 We will likely see that final uptick during Asian/Europe trade. That means if we wait for the rebound from the initial sell off after a top, we could be selling sometime during early NY session, Tuesday tomorrow.
👌 11
8/8 Tim and I believe that breach of these lines should trigger equity selling, and bond buying (yields falling). These purple support lines correspond to important support levels for ES, YM, NQ. However, we prioritize ES, YM, and RTY. NQ tends to get a lift from falling yields. Image

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More from @RobertPBalan1

1 Sep
1/X SEPTEMBER 1, 2021.

EUROPE OPEN BRIEF:

Day Of Reckoning: A Top Out In 10Yr; Yield-Equities Synch Now Taking Place, So Falling Yields Also Gets Falling Equities

Full presentation at Seeking Alpha:
seekingalpha.com/instablog/9103…
2/X Fed Balance sheet data components agree on a Sept 2/Sept 8 low data points (NY close basis).
3/X The TGA-centric 10yr yield model also point to a Sept 2/Sept low data points (NY Close basis).
Read 24 tweets
31 Aug
1/X AUGUST 31, 2021.

ASIAN SESSION BRIEF:

10Yr Yield Ready For A Decent Pullback Higher; Expect YM, RTY To Retrace Higher As Well; NQ And ES Should Respond Lower

Article at Seeking Alpha:

seekingalpha.com/instablog/9103…
2/X Tim and I expect the yield, which is just completing a five-series, to ratchet higher on a normal pullback probably circa 40 pct of the Yield decline from August 26, then resumes the downward trend. Image
3/X That should trigger a ratchet higher in YM of at least 50% of the fall from 35,456 top, then also resumes the downward trend. Image
Read 12 tweets
25 Aug
1/X Some Implications To Equities, Yields As The US Treasury (And The Fed) Navigate Through The US Debt Ceiling
Full presentation at Seeking Alpha:

seekingalpha.com/instablog/9103…
2/X It started with a post from @RM13 -- stalwart, resident options and ETF veteran at PAM:
3/X My reply:

If one reads carefully Rafa -- that's adding to the TGA at circa year end. ZH calls it tightening (but they have targeted the wrong asset class) -- it is actually adding the kind of liquidity that really matters to risk assets (e.g., equities) --
Read 18 tweets
24 Aug
1/X Crypto, China Equities, Commodities -- The Total Social Financing Connection; Previous Lower China Gov't Expenditures Exacts Its Pound Of Flesh

Full presentation at Seeking Alpha:

seekingalpha.com/instablog/9103…
2/X It's again "quaking-in-my-boots time" for the Crypto Universe. I suggest you side.step a few weeks (2 to 4 weeks) of lower prices. We buy again sometime in September (maybe the 1st weeks, but we will fine-tune that). Bossman also itching to go back to the fray.
3/X Change Rate in TSF has not meaningfully risen; commodity prices (Base Metals, Crude Oil) at risk until May 2022. China Govt Expenditures, Total Social Financing (TSF), M2 Money Supply, Brent Oil, Copper
Read 7 tweets
23 Aug
1/X Rising Bank Reserve Creation, And Upswing In Systemic Liquidity Inflows Should Launch A Seasonal Upcycle For Equities, Yields, And Gold; Downswing For The US Dollar (DXY)
Full presentation at Seeking Alpha:

seekingalpha.com/instablog/9103…
2/X This is the Big Picture for DXY and Gold (from liquidity point of view) that works for me. Sharply rising liquidity in the form of Bank Reserves boosts equities and Gold, and kills the US Dollar (DXY) via the QTM. Gold (yellow line in the chart below) is at the verge . . .
3/X . . . of a sharp take-off after the Fed's Jackson Hole confab, rising in the wake of a new equity seasonal bull phase. Image
Read 15 tweets
23 Aug
1/X AUGUST 23, 2021.

EUROPE OPEN BRIEF:.

Looking For Sign Of Weakness In Current Equity And Bond Yield Rally; Looking To Short Equity And Buy Bond Scalpers Ahead Of Jackson Hole Event

Article at Seeking Alpha:

seekingalpha.com/instablog/9103…
2/X This was our short-term schemata for the 10Yr Yield on Friday. Image
3/X So far, the bond market reality is hewing to the Yield outlook. Image
Read 10 tweets

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