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Kasper Planeta Kepp Profile picture
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25 Aug, 8 tweets, 7 min read
This Danish article surprisingly argues for boosters ("3rd shot") for *full* population, due to: 1) waning antibodies 2) "looks like vaccinated people in Israel, where they vaccinated long before us, are getting sick again."

A few comments below.
1/6
 dr.dk/nyheder/viden/…
Claim 1: Antibodies are *expected* to fall after infection/vax. But t-cells/B-cells remain. Waning antibodies is *not* equivalent to waning immunity.
2/6


Claim 2: "People previously vaccinated are getting sick again." This claim is based on early reports from Israel.
However the actual data as other places: >85% VE for disease, & VE waning non-significant. Vaccines work!
3/6

Boosters for vulnerable is desirable before Winter.
But for ethical & epidemiological reasons, most experts think boosters for healthy non-risk pop is *not* warranted.

The particular expert in the article disagrees, but Ab waning & Israel data do not justify this i.m.o.

4/6
Expert statements:








Also, the article is written as if just a matter of time before all need boosters (the interviewed is part of the panel deciding). 🧐
Next time @DRNyheder conveys a scientific minority opinion on a topic with evident complexity & huge special interests, show #balance please.

6/6
Just for perspective: 99% of deaths were 50+.
The marginal extra-effect on deaths/hosp of mass-applying boosters to millions of healthy young/adults who *already* had 2 shots becomes unethical due to misplaced focus vs. other things killing people (incl. covid elsewhere).
Risk is exponential in age (99% deaths 50+) -this fact seems to still confuse some people proposing policy.

Reducing deaths & hosp this Winter by boosting old & vulnerable very important.

But those arguing for mass-boosting young/adults don't seem to understand exp functions.

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More from @KasperKepp

Kasper Planeta Kepp Profile picture
9 Sep
This tweet summarizes everything that is wrong with the US public science debate right now, seen from Europe. Season, age & other confounders greatly change results but this author ignores them to build the case that FL has failed for political reasons.

1/5
We already had data indicating that FL has tougher Summer waves peaking in Aug, but milder Winter waves (FL is in Region 4, CA in R9, TX is R6).

The author could have made the same (flawed) analysis last Summer.

Or same analysis - with opposite conclusion - last Winter.

2/5 Image
Another issue is age: It is completely standard at this point in the pandemic to correct deaths of different regions by population age, since age is the all-dominating risk factor of mortality varying 1000-fold between young & old.

3/5
Read 7 tweets
Kasper Planeta Kepp Profile picture
11 Mar
Lidt kommentarer til en historie der i øjeblikket spredes via alle større medier og debatteres heftigt på sociale medier i anledning af 1-året for Danmarks nedlukning. "Forskere: Coronanedlukninger har afværget op mod 35.000 dødsfald i Danmark"

1/16
Mange undrer sig over det store tal og den enorme effekt af nedlukning. Påstande om, at 35.000 dødsfald er blevet undgået ved nedlukning gentages ivrigt. Nedenfor f.eks. Ekstrabladet:
ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/samfun…

2/16
Udregningen er ikke udgivet og desværre ikke beskrevet. Meget tyder på, at man blot har brugt den simple formel for tilfældig infektion: HIT = 1-1/R0.

HIT = andel af befolkning der smittes til flokimmunitet
R0 = virus' basale reproduktionstal.

quantamagazine.org/the-tricky-mat…

3/16
Read 21 tweets
Kasper Planeta Kepp Profile picture
17 Feb
I forhold til strategien fremover:
Et flertal af forskere ser ud til at mene at:
1) Sars-cov-2 bliver endemisk sæsonvirus
2) Næppe kan udryddes regionalt (zerocovid)
3) Kommer til at minde om influenza på mange måder
nature.com/articles/d4158…
Minoriten for 2 er dog ret stor. /1
Sars-cov-2 er nok ca. dobbelt så smitsom som typisk sæsoninfluenza og 10% af verden har formentlig været smittet, så påstande om at den kan udryddes i Europa hvor den har slået hårdt igennem i to bølger virker usandsynlige. /2
apnews.com/article/virus-…
Dødelighed i DK nok ca. 3-6 x sæsoninfluenza.
Når alle 70+ vaccineres måske 80% ned (effektivitet 90%) ->tæt på influenza.
covid19.ssi.dk/overvagningsda…
+vi vaccinerer mere🙂
+mindre mutagen end influenza

Minus: Stadig 2x smitsomhed, langtidseffekter og stadig evolution til gode.☹️ /3
Read 11 tweets
Kasper Planeta Kepp Profile picture
26 Jan
Argumentet for fortsat nedlukning hviler på en misfortolkning af kontakttallet af Heunicke og Kolmos.
Kontakttallet vil automatisk nærme sig 1 efter en bølge, fordi det måler ændringen i epidemien, ikke dens størrelse. 1/3

dr.dk/nyheder/politi…

Flere virker (med rette!) forvirrede over at Rt stiger mens smitten falder. For myndighederne gør intet for at forklare det. En epidemi på konstant lavt blus har Rt ca. 1. Det er den proces vi ser nu - Rt vil nærme sig 1 uanset hvad. Samme proces sås derfor også efter april. 2/3
Var det dårligt Rt steg fra 0,7 til 1 efter april? Nej! Hvis man bruger Rt vil enhver epidemi på vågeblus kræve kontrol & restriktioner fordi Rt vil fluktuere omkring 1 -som i sommers. Det vil være ødelæggende på forkert grundlag -vi skal bruge smitte, pos% og indlæggelser. 3/3
Read 4 tweets
Kasper Planeta Kepp Profile picture
26 Jan
I stedet for fuld nedlukning (men fastholdte mildere restriktioner og god social afstand) kunne vi give for 25.000 kroner ekstra omsorg til alle vore 40.000 plejehjemsboere - dvs. dem, som primært dør - hver dag!
(hvis nedlukning koster 1 milliard pr. dag).
Umiddelbart skønner jeg, fuld nedlukning redder ca. 5 liv pr. dag (om ca. 3-4 uger) i stabilt scenarie Rt=1 (mereffekt ift mildere restriktioner / allerede stor social afstand 33% = 3000 - 2000, =1000 færre smittede, IFR =0,5% = 5 færre døde, hvis PCR fanger ca. 1/3 af smitten)
Nedlukningen koster ligeså meget som Danmarks samlede frie forskning fra DFF - hver dag:
dff.dk/aktuelt/presse…
Read 7 tweets
Kasper Planeta Kepp Profile picture
15 Jan
With many empirical studies now showing more modest effects of lockdowns vs. other NPIs, voluntary behavior, and other confounders, the original model concluding large effects is increasingly criticized, incl. a comment in the journal that published it.
1) "we suggest that the model, and its conclusion that all NPIs apart from lockdown have been of low effectiveness, should be treated with caution with regard to policy-making decisions."
nature.com/articles/s4158…
2) "Such modelling efforts have deemed lockdown to account for 81% of the reduction in R0, contributing to government policies. Here, we show that these conclusions are unsupported and that policies therefore should not be based on these studies."
doi.org/10.1101/2020.0…
Read 13 tweets

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