In the Gulf of Mexico, #99L's track will be set in part by its intensity.
An area-averaged sounding around the storm reveals subtle differences in low vs mid/upper-level steering.
A stronger storm wld feel SSE winds ~300mb and move more to the N resulting in landfall farther E.
An area-averaged sounding around the storm reveals subtle differences in low vs mid/upper-level steering.
A stronger storm wld feel SSE winds ~300mb and move more to the N resulting in landfall farther E.
With ocean temperatures approaching 30C, no dry air in sight and near total command of the upper-level wind field, it's honestly hard to see a scenario where #99L doesn't rapidly intensify in the Gulf.
So watch out for potential further shifts east in the forecast track.
So watch out for potential further shifts east in the forecast track.
It's always wise to have an eye on possible failure modes, so I think if #99L manages not to rapidly intensify in the Gulf, it would be due to interaction with NW Cuba disrupting its core AND #TD14 in the EPAC intensifying faster than expected so its outflow could shear 99L.
While this scenario remains possible, it's the kind of thing we'll hope for but not plan on.
Folks from E #TXwx over to #ALwx should dust off their hurricane plans today and begin thinking about what preparations might be needed if/when watches are issued tonight or tomorrow.
Folks from E #TXwx over to #ALwx should dust off their hurricane plans today and begin thinking about what preparations might be needed if/when watches are issued tonight or tomorrow.
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