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Mina Al-Lami

31 Aug, 8 tweets, 2 min read

Thread: Al-Qaeda’s “general command” has finally issued a statement congratulating Taliban on the “great victory”, seeing it as a “prelude” to Muslims successes elsewhere & end to “American-European arrogance”, hegemony. AQ branches have already issued congratulatory statements/1

AQ urges Afghans to rally around TB and trust & obey its leadership; calls on Muslims worldwide to support TB by providing needed skills and funds to help it build a state. Similar to other AQ statements, prays TB will govern by Sharia - a make or break issue for jihadists /2

AQ pays tribute TB leadership, naming its chief, “commander of the faithful” Hibatullah Akhundzada. AQ is bound to TB by a pledge of allegiance. In theory, this means AQ places itself under the orders of TB /3

AQ leader Zawahiri renewed group's pledge to TB in 2016 when Akhundzada took power. As far as we know, this pledge, unlike previous ones, wasn't publicly acknowledged by TB. This ambiguity over pledge status is at heart of uncertainty over TB's approach to jihadist agenda /4

In latest issue of its monthly mag Al Somood, (30 Aug), TB relayed slew of statements from Islamic institutions & movements that have congratulated TB, including Hamas. But it failed to note the flurry of congratulatory statements from AQ affiliates & other jihadist groups /5

This is likely in line with TB's careful and pragmatic policy in at least publicly distancing itself from hardline jihadists. AQ groups unlikely to challenge TB over this as they see a greater interest and gains to be made /6

As a side note, the latest AQ written message may fuel further speculation over the status of the group's leader, Zawahiri, who hasn't made a fresh appearance in over a year, and who was rumoured in Nov 2020 to have died of natural causes /7

My colleague Driss El Bay has recently published for BBCM a highly valuable and extensive explainer about the history of the pledge binding AQ and TB, and what we know and don't know about its current status: monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/c202ud…

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More from @Minalami

Mina Al-Lami

@Minalami

29 Oct

In the latest issue of its weekly paper al-Naba, #ISIS gloats about "the impact" of its deadly attack of 26 Oct on members of a Shia tribe (Bani Tamim) in Iraq's eastern Diyala province /1

The attack in the mixed Sunni-Shia province is clearly designed to reignite sectarian tensions in the hope of creating a Shia backlash against Sunnis that IS can then exploit /2

The attack gave rise to sectarian tensions and recriminations on the political & communal levels, and you can see it playing out online. There were reports of revenge attacks on an adjacent Sunni village. Such tensions on this scale have been largely absent in recent years /3

Read 5 tweets

Mina Al-Lami

@Minalami

8 Oct

#ISIS admits some of its members have been killed in Taliban raids on IS-linked homes/hideouts in recent days. Says 3 militants killed + wife & child of one in Taliban raid in Parwan on 1 Oct. Says 4 IS militants killed + 3 women & children in Taliban raid in Kabul on 3 Oct/1

The IS account, which came in the group's weekly paper al-Naba on 8 Oct, claims the IS members fought fiercely when Taliban raided their homes in Kabul & Parwan and that gunfights lasted hours causing deaths and injuries in Taliban ranks before the IS militants perished /2

Within the same report, al-Naba features an image of a blindfolded man whom it says is the Taliban member later beheaded by IS in Jalalabad. The pose of one of the IS militants in the image suggests it's a still from a video which might come out later /3

Read 4 tweets

Mina Al-Lami

@Minalami

20 Sep

1) #IS/#ISKP claims first attacks specifically targeting #Taliban in Afghanistan since the latter took power on 15 Aug. IS said it carried out a series of 7 IED attacks on Taliban members in the eastern city of Jalalabad on 18 and 19 Sep, allegedly "killing and wounding over 35"

2) In its claims, IS uses its typical wording to describe the Taliban, calling them an "apostate militia". IS released an image and a video of a low-profile IED blast to support its claims

3) As far as I can see, the Taliban have yet to comment on these attacks, which local media said also harmed civilians who were in the vicinity of the blasts

Read 6 tweets

Mina Al-Lami

@Minalami

11 Sep

@BBCMonitoring

Thread on 9/11 anniversary, based on @BBCMonitoring analysis. It looks at the state of jihad, particularly that of al-Qaeda, in the context of the current geopolitical developments, esp the Taliban's return to power: monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/c202vk… 👇

Jihadists are celebrating the 20th anniversary of 9/11 as a double victory. It coincides with the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan, seen as a coup for jihad, and the departure of all US troops from the country /1

Al-Qaeda has been at the forefront in congratulating the Taliban on their "historic victory", saying it foreshadows jihadist gains elsewhere. Jihadists are largely interpreting Taliban's return to power as a divine sign from Allah 2/

Read 25 tweets

Mina Al-Lami

@Minalami

20 Aug

Jealous IS snubs Taliban saying it didn’t win Afghanistan through jihad, but was given it on silver platter by US. Argues “new Taliban” is a fake Muslim group US is using to mislead Muslims & fight IS. Says IS is preparing for new phase of jihad, possibly meaning in Afghanistan/1

Also expresses doubt that Taliban will implement true Sharia law in Afghanistan /2

IS supporters, who have been making similar arguments for days now, are likely to launch a coordinated hashtag campaign online to amplify the latest IS message /3

Read 5 tweets

Mina Al-Lami

@Minalami

19 Aug

Al-Qaeda in Yemen (AQAP) congratulates the #Taliban on its 'historic victory', while ISIS supporters continue to denounce the Afghan group as a nationalist, "apostate" entity and a fake Islamic movement, with some starting to put out anti-Taliban posters 1/

In its message of 18 Aug, AQAP prayed for the success of the Taliban in establishing Sharia rule and upholding "wala and bara" - a key Salafist doctrine meaning loyalty to everything considered Islamic and disavowal of everything considered un-Islamic 2/

Jihadists will be watching to see if the Taliban imposes true Sharia rule in Afghanistan, or implements a watered down version to appease the international community. ISIS supporters think the latter will happen 3/

Read 4 tweets

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