Thread by @drgregkelly

Some clarity post Vic #COVID19 news today

Next few mths NSW/Vic won't see big change of restrictions due to health system overwhelm

REAL CHOICE is after that, do we aim for:

"Let it rip (vaccine edition)" aka #COVIDeveryone, or

"Maximal suppression" aka #COVIDelimination?

Degree of freedom that NSW gov has in next few mths very limited as the health system is already SEVERELY strained - of course gov knows this

We're in lockdown for the next few mths, aside from some minor relaxations like picnics, small weddings, etc to enhance tolerability

There'll be tension in the next few months, protests, "debate" about whether lockdowns work etc. IGNORE IT ALL FOR SANITY'S sake. The government has limited choices & they know it

Once vaccine rates MUCH HIGHER later in year choice is possible. Health system won't collapse w removal of mitigations

BUT abandonment of measures w hi vaccine rates "let it rip -vaccine edition" aka #COVIDeveryone still results in sizeable burden of disease, look at UK & others

UK still having 100-150 deaths per day, substantial proportion of ICU beds dedicated to #COVID19, lots of ppl in hospital, unknown but probably large burden of #longCOVID

Many places that have done this are trying to climb down & reintroduce some mitigation measures

The other choice is maximal suppression, aka #COVIDelimination

Recognises that COVID will get in, perhaps even circulate at low levels but multipronged approach keeps it as LOW AS POSSIBLE. We do this with lots of other diseases - like measles

Side note that management flu is what ppl constantly refer to when referencing "let it rip -vaccine edition" aka #COVIDeveryone

Ignores 2 truths:
- COVID much worse than flu & causes far more deaths
- Flu almost ENTIRELY DISAPPEARS with COVID mitigation. 2 birds, 1 stone

Our challenge in NSW/Vic for next few months is to grit our teeth, ignore the noise & to put in place NOW what we need to do to be able to choose #COVIDelimination in a few months

Vaccination, ventilation, vaccinesplus (test, trace, isolate, quarantine)

Explained very elegantly from a viral evolution perspective here

https://twitter.com/ariskatzourakis/status/1359863858609999877