A change in definitions of vaccinated status & new raw data from @IsraelMOH demanded a refreshed approach to my #Israel's #SARS2 charts. I start with general population totals of the four available daily datasets: NEW cases, severely ill & deaths, and ACTIVE severely ill. 1/
Due to the different sizes of these categories, I had to use log charts. Daily NEW cases, severe & deaths jump around wildly depending on the day of the week, so I'll (mostly) use the standard 7-day rolling averages of both the absolute numbers & the incidence rates. 2/
It's fascinating to see how much the beginnings of this & last year's waves resemble each other. After a prolonged period of new cases below active severely ill, a sudden outbreak above that range signals the start of a huge new wave. A policy reaction is a must at THAT point. 3/
Infections lead with significant time lags on the way up, in logical order. Less so on the way down! If a wave is truly subsiding (not just some testing quirk), EVERY measure should start falling soon, though cases much more pronounced than severe hospitalizations & deaths. 4/
Looking at incidence, Israel topped out again at 100 per 100k. Confirmed infections depend on testing (which Israel does a lot), but, curiously, this level of daily cases of 1‰ (one permille, 1/1000, or 0.1%) of the total population often acts as a ceiling in this pandemic. 5/
In the worst managed outbreaks, daily cases breach this 1‰ of the population ceiling, but the wave has a hard time staying above it before exhausting itself.
Also, 1 per 100k incidence for severe & deaths often delineates how is a country handling its current #SARSCoV2 wave. 6/
If I use 7-day averages for new cases, severe & deaths, the dynamics of this pandemic are more clearly visible. It also shows how #SARS2 manages to fool everyone by falling so low to appear beaten and then exponentially exploding x1000 higher in incidence in just two months. 7/
Sometimes I'll use rolling weekly totals for new severe & deaths because daily zeros mess up calculations & plots. It this chart, it's even better visible how low the numbers fell, just as the current outbreak was, in fact, beginning. #SARSCoV2 is playing mind games with us! 8/
Also, look at how weekly totals of new severe mirror active severe when a wave is rising. But, the moment the trend breaks, NEW severe cases separate downward & start decreasing first. That is happening now in Israel. With boosters, they managed to speed up this downtrend. 9/
Finally, thanks to the first-class data & the use of logic, #Israel spotted the problem quickly, and without much waiting, implemented a booster campaign while deaths were STILL VERY LOW, at only around 10 per week. If they reacted slower, the consequences would be harsher. 10/
These are the links to my previous threads about #Israel's raw data, containing the history, sources & my methodology for calculating & plotting all these charts.
Insurance companies, esp. life insurance, seem to be the only institutions left that still give a damn about #COVID. Why? Because they can NOT afford not to. Everyone else can just pretend the pandemic is over & #SARS2 is a mild cold, but insurers can NOT! They know it's real.
Insurers will soon be the last remaining source of #COVID data, now that governments & health care public institutions are disgracefully abandoning their duties.
For the pandemic's ongoing toll, look at the latest Group Life #COVID19 Mortality Report. soa.org/programs/covid…
Here's the direct link for the August 2022 edition. soa.org/4a368a/globala…
And the impressive list of companies contributing data for this report. I don't think anyone can accuse these companies for faking #COVID deaths & the pandemic's excess deaths in general.
So, the OPPOSITE of what the "expert" virologist Jasnah (& friends) was telling me a year ago.
"Key characteristic of FATAL #COVID19 outcomes is that the immune response to the #SARSCoV2 spike protein is enriched for antibodies directed against epitopes SHARED with ENDEMIC...
beta-coronaviruses & has a lower proportion of antibodies targeting the more protective variable regions of the spike... suggesting an antibody profile in individuals with fatal outcomes consistent with an original antigenic sin type-response." insight.jci.org/articles/view/…
"Exposure to antigens shared between #SARSCov2 & related HCoVs may affect immunity & infection outcomes as a consequence of ‘original antigenic sin’ (OAS). For OAS to manifest, antigens need to be shared between primary & secondary exposures."
In a month, we got 2 studies from TWO highly respectable teams demonstrating MHC-I downregulation in cells infected with #SARSCoV2. While conclusions are the same, results differ in the exact #SARS2 mechanism of inhibition of the presentation of expressed antigen to CD8+ T-cells.
"...we found that ORF7a reduced cell surface MHC-I levels by approximately 5-FOLD. Nevertheless, in cells infected with #SARSCoV2, surface MHC-I levels were reduced even in the absence of ORF7a, suggesting additional mechanisms of MHC-I downregulation." biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
"#SARSCoV2 ORF7a physically associated with the MHC-I heavy chain and inhibited the presentation of expressed antigen to CD8+ T-cells."
Interestingly, not observed in SARS-COV-1:
"unlike #SARSCoV2, the ORF7a protein from SARS-CoV lacked MHC-I downregulating activity."
"Head-to-head comparisons of T cell, B cell & antibody responses to diverse vaccines...
We additionally compared their immune memory to natural infection for binding antibodies, neutralizing antibodies, spike-specific CD4+, CD8+ T cells & memory B cells." cell.com/cell/fulltext/…
Interesting summary of differences in humoral & cellular immune memory. But, this caught my attention; mostly disregarded as an inconvenience.
"mRNA vaccines and Ad26.COV2.S induced comparable CD8+ T cell frequencies, though ONLY DETECTABLE in 60-67% of subjects at 6 months."
E.g. his is considered waning.
"100% of mRNA-1273 recipients remained positive for spike IgG, RBD IgG & neutralizing antibodies at 6-months post-vaccination.
From peak to 6-months, GMTs of spike IgG decreased 6-fold, RBD IgG 9-fold & neutralizing antibodies decreased 7-fold."
The two of the best economic blogs I've been reading for years are written by brilliant, independent individuals: calculatedriskblog.com by Bill McBride @calculatedrisk, and bonddad.blogspot.com by the anonymous blogger called New Deal Democrat.
The recent post by NDD about #SARSCoV2 illustrates the prevalent reasoning that led to the current policy blind alley.
"A year ago I thought that between nearly universal vaccinations & an increasing percentage of the population already infected...
the virus would wane into a BACKGROUND NUISANCE BY NOW.
No more. I am now thoroughly convinced that there will be an UNENDING SERIES of VARIANTS that will create CONTINUING WAVES of new infections and, increasingly importantly, RE-infections."
Oh, how long we have waited. Finally, a step forward.
"Such repeated immune activation might be mediated by a SUPERANTIGEN motif within the #SARSCoV2 spike protein that bears resemblance to Staphylococcal enterotoxin B, TRIGGERING BROAD & NON-SPECIFIC T-CELL ACTIVATION."
"We hypothesise that the recently reported cases of severe acute hepatitis in children could be a consequence of adenovirus infection with intestinal trophism in children PREVIOUSLY INFECTED by #SARSCoV2 & carrying VIRAL RESERVOIRS...
In mice... This outcome was explained by adenovirus-induced type-1 immune skewing, which, upon subsequent Staphylococcal enterotoxin B administration, led to EXCESSIVE IFN-γ production and IFN-γ-MEDIATED APOPTOSIS of HEPATOCYTES...