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13 Sep, 8 tweets, 2 min read
Homeschool Update: Year 2

Last year, we pulled our kids from NY public schools at the last minute, because we would not accept only 2d/wk of in-person teaching and would not accept our kids to be forcibly masked.

We thought for sure we'd be able to return this year, but...

As CoV2 numbers dropped seasonally (Jan-May) along with rising vax rates, we felt confident we'd see normal conditions (no masks, quarantine, distancing, etc.).

I asked their preferences:
-Twins chose to continue homeschool
-High-schooler chose to return but only if no masks

Over the summer, things got crazy with Cuomo's scandal. He and NYS DOH did not announce new school guidance while school districts scrambled to respond to angry parents.

Eventually, DOH quietly emailed Superintendents stating they could make masks optional for summer school.

Our District had been under intense pressure from me and a core group of parents, so they quickly conformed to the mask optional allowance.

Things went well, and we thought there was a good chance for Fall school, so I gave Notice of Intent for the HS child to return.

Not long after, sunbelt numbers started rising, and Cuomo resigned. The Lt. Gov quickly showed she intended to force universal masking during interviews.

Then, upon taking office, she did exactly that.

Our District flipped back to masks required right away.

We quickly changed our Notice of Intent and withdrew the 3rd child. We also then signed up for an in-person co-op where our kids basically have normal "school" with tutors, other kids, fun events, performances, live lab (science), and even debate + logic (critical thinking).

We're now in the 2nd week, and it's already a big relief. The kids don't think about CoV2 or anything besides learning and meeting new classmates.

No masks, no vax requirement, and a focus on true learning + critical thought while the rest of NY treats kids like plague rats.

I know this is not feasible nor the best choice for everyone, but I wanted to give my experience as a newbie.

Yes, it does eat up a lot of my time, but I surprisingly enjoy it. I'm fully involved and helping the kids learn in different ways.

It's rewarding and worth trying.


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More from @Hold2LLC

7 Jul
NY School Masking - Master Thread: Summer/Fall 2021

Gov Cuomo and NYS DOH left school districts confused when removing the State of Emergency without clarifying school mask rules.

This thread shows School Districts where masks are proactively made optional:

#1 - Depew Image
#2 - Hamburg

Same wording. Note these districts are matching up summer school with summer camp guidance.

Key quote:

"...there is no material difference in risk levels or populations between our programs and summer camps." Image
#3 - Tonawanda

Same text again.

Notable logic:
- Cuomo lifted the state of emergency
- NYSDOH, NYSED, and CDC guidance documents only covered the '20-'21 school year, which ended
- Legal counsel agreed with the logic
- Will re-evaluate if NYS issues new guidance Image
Read 8 tweets
3 Jul
Well, it looks like this is the end. We thought it was over when CTP stopped, but then @TheLawyerCraig and his merry band of data volunteers kept us going for 4 more months.

In commemoration, we will post our final chart set.

First, Reported Cases & Hospitalization Census

Same chart w/Hope-Simpson overlay.

- Summer stimulus visible again like last year, though 2 weeks later
- Cases bottomed on 6/18 and have risen since but much less than 2020
- Hosp Census followed trend this past week by hitting its inflection point and turning up slightly

Reported Cases vs. Test Positivity

As is typically the case, Pos% inflected first with Reported Cases following shortly after.

Though turning up like 2020, the Pos% rate increase is much shallower and much lower overall.

Read 6 tweets
26 Jun
US CoV2 Update: 6/26/21

Cases w/inflection points labeled. Summer stimulus with upward pressure has arrived.

As expected, amplitude is minimal.

Spring Peak:
- 2020: 4/13
- 2021: 4/12

June Trough:
- 2020: 6/10
- 2021: 6/18

Summer Peak:
- 2020: 7/23
- 2021: TBD

Hospitalization Census w/inflection points labeled.

Summer stimulus showing the same as Cases but with slight lag.

Amplitude increase should be minimal.

Spring Peak:
- 2020: 4/21
- 2021: 4/21

June Trough:
- 2020: 6/20
- 2021: 6/25-28?

Summer Peak:
- 2020: 7/27
- 2021: TBD
Reported Deaths w/inflection points labeled.

This pattern is much less aligned than Cases/Hosps.

That April 2020 spike appears abnormal beyond just the effects of CoV2 itself.

Notice how much closer the current numbers are.

Probably will see another July 4 reporting trough.
Read 4 tweets
12 Jun
***Master NY BOE Unmask🧵***

I've created this to gather all the NY BOE letters being sent to Gov Cuomo and Legislature.

It started with Hauppauge, a Long Island district that was open 5d/wk ALL YEAR. Yes, even in NY. They set the pace.

This is Science. This is Leadership. ImageImage
Then Massapequa jumped in the ring for tag team support while adding their own #RationalGround verbiage:

"We respectfully request that you either provide the data and science that supports the universal masking of our children, or you lift the mask mandates for schools."

🔥🔥🔥 Image
Next, the floodgates opened.

A scorcher from William Floyd.

"...masks are causing anxiety and mental anguish, along with physical issues such as nosebleeds and trouble breathing..."

How many times have you heard, "what's the harm?" or "well my kid doesn't mind wearing one"? Image
Read 25 tweets
29 May
Lowest 10 States - COVID Mortality Year-Over-Year

This is Reported Death Per Million shown Year-over-Year for the 10 states with the lowest COVID mortality.
Oregon and Washington by themselves on the same scale.

Note that 1/M/Day is very low.
These charts show Hospitalization Census Per Million for 2 groups:

Chart 1) The 5 states with the highest COVID Mortality

Chart 2) The 5 states with the lowest COVID Mortality

Same scale.

Bottom 5 are higher than last year but overall extremely low. Peak barely above 100/M.
Read 5 tweets
9 May
US States CoV2 2020 vs. 2021: 5/9/21

Let's peek at some states compared to last year and current trends relative to NPIs.

Starting with AZ:
- Both Reported Deaths and Date of Death >50% lower
- Hosp Census 20% lower
- Positivity 36% lower despite Case Detection 84% higher
- Reported Deaths a little higher than last year but much lower than when all restrictions were removed
- Date of Death identical to last year as of 4/25
- Did not report Hosp Census until 7/10/20, but you can see the difference. Dropping quickly after a brief Spring stimulus
- Hosp Census higher than last year but down 56% since the Neanderthal comment and trending down
- Reported Deaths down 80% since the Neanderthal comment and trending down. Slightly higher than last year but converging
Read 4 tweets

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