Well, it looks like this is the end. We thought it was over when CTP stopped, but then @TheLawyerCraig and his merry band of data volunteers kept us going for 4 more months.
In commemoration, we will post our final chart set.
- Summer stimulus visible again like last year, though 2 weeks later
- Cases bottomed on 6/18 and have risen since but much less than 2020
- Hosp Census followed trend this past week by hitting its inflection point and turning up slightly
/2
Reported Cases vs. Test Positivity
As is typically the case, Pos% inflected first with Reported Cases following shortly after.
Though turning up like 2020, the Pos% rate increase is much shallower and much lower overall.
/3
Reported Deaths vs. CFR
Here, you see our Reported Deaths aren't much lower than last year at the same time when considering the amount of community immunity we have.
Some of this is reporting lag, but we had lag last year, too. I expect this gap to expand greatly in July.
/4
The 4 Classics
Here are the 4 charts I used to do every day. Might as well give them a send-off.
/5
Bonus Charts - Estimated Infections
These are crude and not rigorous evaluations, but they were interesting to try.
1) Estimated Infections (~90M) based on Pos% X 2.4M test/day
2) Estimated Infections based on 0.38% IFR, 0.5%, and 0.62%. All shown on the same Y-axis
/END
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I've created this to gather all the NY BOE letters being sent to Gov Cuomo and Legislature.
It started with Hauppauge, a Long Island district that was open 5d/wk ALL YEAR. Yes, even in NY. They set the pace.
This is Science. This is Leadership.
Then Massapequa jumped in the ring for tag team support while adding their own #RationalGround verbiage:
"We respectfully request that you either provide the data and science that supports the universal masking of our children, or you lift the mask mandates for schools."
🔥🔥🔥
Next, the floodgates opened.
A scorcher from William Floyd.
"...masks are causing anxiety and mental anguish, along with physical issues such as nosebleeds and trouble breathing..."
How many times have you heard, "what's the harm?" or "well my kid doesn't mind wearing one"?
Let's peek at some states compared to last year and current trends relative to NPIs.
Starting with AZ:
- Both Reported Deaths and Date of Death >50% lower
- Hosp Census 20% lower
- Positivity 36% lower despite Case Detection 84% higher
FL:
- Reported Deaths a little higher than last year but much lower than when all restrictions were removed
- Date of Death identical to last year as of 4/25
- Did not report Hosp Census until 7/10/20, but you can see the difference. Dropping quickly after a brief Spring stimulus
TX:
- Hosp Census higher than last year but down 56% since the Neanderthal comment and trending down
- Reported Deaths down 80% since the Neanderthal comment and trending down. Slightly higher than last year but converging