Hold2 Profile picture
3 Jul, 6 tweets, 4 min read
Well, it looks like this is the end. We thought it was over when CTP stopped, but then @TheLawyerCraig and his merry band of data volunteers kept us going for 4 more months.

In commemoration, we will post our final chart set.

First, Reported Cases & Hospitalization Census

Same chart w/Hope-Simpson overlay.

- Summer stimulus visible again like last year, though 2 weeks later
- Cases bottomed on 6/18 and have risen since but much less than 2020
- Hosp Census followed trend this past week by hitting its inflection point and turning up slightly

Reported Cases vs. Test Positivity

As is typically the case, Pos% inflected first with Reported Cases following shortly after.

Though turning up like 2020, the Pos% rate increase is much shallower and much lower overall.

Reported Deaths vs. CFR

Here, you see our Reported Deaths aren't much lower than last year at the same time when considering the amount of community immunity we have.

Some of this is reporting lag, but we had lag last year, too. I expect this gap to expand greatly in July.

The 4 Classics

Here are the 4 charts I used to do every day. Might as well give them a send-off.

Bonus Charts - Estimated Infections

These are crude and not rigorous evaluations, but they were interesting to try.

1) Estimated Infections (~90M) based on Pos% X 2.4M test/day

2) Estimated Infections based on 0.38% IFR, 0.5%, and 0.62%. All shown on the same Y-axis


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More from @Hold2LLC

26 Jun
US CoV2 Update: 6/26/21

Cases w/inflection points labeled. Summer stimulus with upward pressure has arrived.

As expected, amplitude is minimal.

Spring Peak:
- 2020: 4/13
- 2021: 4/12

June Trough:
- 2020: 6/10
- 2021: 6/18

Summer Peak:
- 2020: 7/23
- 2021: TBD

Hospitalization Census w/inflection points labeled.

Summer stimulus showing the same as Cases but with slight lag.

Amplitude increase should be minimal.

Spring Peak:
- 2020: 4/21
- 2021: 4/21

June Trough:
- 2020: 6/20
- 2021: 6/25-28?

Summer Peak:
- 2020: 7/27
- 2021: TBD
Reported Deaths w/inflection points labeled.

This pattern is much less aligned than Cases/Hosps.

That April 2020 spike appears abnormal beyond just the effects of CoV2 itself.

Notice how much closer the current numbers are.

Probably will see another July 4 reporting trough.
Read 4 tweets
12 Jun
***Master NY BOE Unmask🧵***

I've created this to gather all the NY BOE letters being sent to Gov Cuomo and Legislature.

It started with Hauppauge, a Long Island district that was open 5d/wk ALL YEAR. Yes, even in NY. They set the pace.

This is Science. This is Leadership. ImageImage
Then Massapequa jumped in the ring for tag team support while adding their own #RationalGround verbiage:

"We respectfully request that you either provide the data and science that supports the universal masking of our children, or you lift the mask mandates for schools."

🔥🔥🔥 Image
Next, the floodgates opened.

A scorcher from William Floyd.

"...masks are causing anxiety and mental anguish, along with physical issues such as nosebleeds and trouble breathing..."

How many times have you heard, "what's the harm?" or "well my kid doesn't mind wearing one"? Image
Read 25 tweets
29 May
Lowest 10 States - COVID Mortality Year-Over-Year

This is Reported Death Per Million shown Year-over-Year for the 10 states with the lowest COVID mortality.
Oregon and Washington by themselves on the same scale.

Note that 1/M/Day is very low.
These charts show Hospitalization Census Per Million for 2 groups:

Chart 1) The 5 states with the highest COVID Mortality

Chart 2) The 5 states with the lowest COVID Mortality

Same scale.

Bottom 5 are higher than last year but overall extremely low. Peak barely above 100/M.
Read 5 tweets
9 May
US States CoV2 2020 vs. 2021: 5/9/21

Let's peek at some states compared to last year and current trends relative to NPIs.

Starting with AZ:
- Both Reported Deaths and Date of Death >50% lower
- Hosp Census 20% lower
- Positivity 36% lower despite Case Detection 84% higher
- Reported Deaths a little higher than last year but much lower than when all restrictions were removed
- Date of Death identical to last year as of 4/25
- Did not report Hosp Census until 7/10/20, but you can see the difference. Dropping quickly after a brief Spring stimulus
- Hosp Census higher than last year but down 56% since the Neanderthal comment and trending down
- Reported Deaths down 80% since the Neanderthal comment and trending down. Slightly higher than last year but converging
Read 4 tweets
1 May
CoV2 2020 vs. 2021: AL/GA/MS/TN/TX


Not sure what to think.
Read 5 tweets
24 Apr
Thread on "Consilience" (tm @EthicalSkeptic)

I hope Dr. Jacobs will engage and discuss with us in good faith.

My intent is to explain how we analyze patterns and look for consilience before predicting or calling peaks.

It's important to know what to expect, right?

This started with my tweet on 4/12 claiming MI/NY/NJ had peaked and that Hosps would peak next...likely the following week.

I didn't post that based on hopes and guesses. It was based on known data/patterns:
- Historical evidence
- Leading indicators


Historical Evidence:

- Hope-Simpson N. Temperate pattern
- April 2020 pattern

Instead of assuming US states dropped in unison at the same time last Spring due to NPIs, we consider natural forces to be predominant.

Read 8 tweets

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