Let's peek at some states compared to last year and current trends relative to NPIs.
Starting with AZ:
- Both Reported Deaths and Date of Death >50% lower
- Hosp Census 20% lower
- Positivity 36% lower despite Case Detection 84% higher
FL:
- Reported Deaths a little higher than last year but much lower than when all restrictions were removed
- Date of Death identical to last year as of 4/25
- Did not report Hosp Census until 7/10/20, but you can see the difference. Dropping quickly after a brief Spring stimulus
TX:
- Hosp Census higher than last year but down 56% since the Neanderthal comment and trending down
- Reported Deaths down 80% since the Neanderthal comment and trending down. Slightly higher than last year but converging
Lots of data to look at for AZ. Holiday behavior patterns both for residents (when they get tested) and gov't (when they process the results) are difficult to predict, so it's important to look closely at the details.
First, Cases.
/1
Today, 17k cases were reported, but it's important to know the difference between Report Date and Date of Specimen Collection. You see in my chart that there was a major dip in cases right when very few tests were performed on the 24th-26th despite 2 being weekdays.
/2
Those who would have tested, but didn't, showed up to get tested on the 27-29th. Due to this, we see the 2 highest single case dates on 12/28-12/29, but the 7-day-avg is still lower than the 12/23 peak currently.