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9 May, 4 tweets, 4 min read
US States CoV2 2020 vs. 2021: 5/9/21

Let's peek at some states compared to last year and current trends relative to NPIs.

Starting with AZ:
- Both Reported Deaths and Date of Death >50% lower
- Hosp Census 20% lower
- Positivity 36% lower despite Case Detection 84% higher
- Reported Deaths a little higher than last year but much lower than when all restrictions were removed
- Date of Death identical to last year as of 4/25
- Did not report Hosp Census until 7/10/20, but you can see the difference. Dropping quickly after a brief Spring stimulus
- Hosp Census higher than last year but down 56% since the Neanderthal comment and trending down
- Reported Deaths down 80% since the Neanderthal comment and trending down. Slightly higher than last year but converging
Last charts here show combined Hosps/M for 2 combos:


What do you glean from this? The consilience is remarkable to me.

NPIs - No NPIs?

Masks - No Mask Mandates?

Schools 90-100% open in-person - Schools mostly not open in-person?

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More from @Hold2LLC

1 May
CoV2 2020 vs. 2021: AL/GA/MS/TN/TX


Not sure what to think.
Read 5 tweets
24 Apr
Thread on "Consilience" (tm @EthicalSkeptic)

I hope Dr. Jacobs will engage and discuss with us in good faith.

My intent is to explain how we analyze patterns and look for consilience before predicting or calling peaks.

It's important to know what to expect, right?

This started with my tweet on 4/12 claiming MI/NY/NJ had peaked and that Hosps would peak next...likely the following week.

I didn't post that based on hopes and guesses. It was based on known data/patterns:
- Historical evidence
- Leading indicators


Historical Evidence:

- Hope-Simpson N. Temperate pattern
- April 2020 pattern

Instead of assuming US states dropped in unison at the same time last Spring due to NPIs, we consider natural forces to be predominant.

Read 8 tweets
12 Apr
Taking this one step further, you HAVE to watch this review of the JAMA study.

As a reminder, this is a CDC study claiming over 50% of transmission is caused by asymp (Fauci).

They use a model where they ASSUME asymp is 75% as infectious as symptomatic.
Lee paper (9):
- Viral load is similar between asymp and symp
- "Viral load is not the same thing as infectiousness or transmissability"

Johansson (JAMA author) used that to claim asymp infectious is 100% as much as symptomatic (fed into the 75% model assumption).

Chaw paper (#15):
- Symptomatic was 2.7X as presymp and asymp COMBINED
- Presymp more infectious than asymp

Johansson counts this as asymp being 40-140% as infectious but that does not match the paper.

Read 5 tweets
27 Mar
Thread: Masks and NPIs.

This thread reviews information published from Oct 2019 - Dec 2020.

The point is to see what was known/believed before & after discovery of COV2.

We'll start with research on epidemic/pandemic influenza (flu) from Oct of 2019.

Aerosols vs. droplets.
/1 ImageImageImage
Seasonality? This was actually a known phenomenon?

/2 ImageImageImage
Intended impact of NPIs.

Does this look familiar? This published in October of 2019 - that's very interesting to me.

Why does this "flatten the curve" image always go to 0 with no resurgence and not have values on either axis?

Let's look at NY and FL for fun.

/3 ImageImageImage
Read 22 tweets
3 Jan
AZ COVID Update: 1/3/21


Lots of data to look at for AZ. Holiday behavior patterns both for residents (when they get tested) and gov't (when they process the results) are difficult to predict, so it's important to look closely at the details.

First, Cases.

Today, 17k cases were reported, but it's important to know the difference between Report Date and Date of Specimen Collection. You see in my chart that there was a major dip in cases right when very few tests were performed on the 24th-26th despite 2 being weekdays.

Those who would have tested, but didn't, showed up to get tested on the 27-29th. Due to this, we see the 2 highest single case dates on 12/28-12/29, but the 7-day-avg is still lower than the 12/23 peak currently.

Just like CA with every restriction imaginable.

Read 7 tweets
3 Dec 20

COVID vs. Hope-Simpson Flu Patterns: 12/3/20

We're not through a whole year yet, but patterns are emerging, and I wanted to take a closer look.

We'll start with NY/IL who both are N. Temperate but not exactly the same climate pattern.

Now FL/TX.

FL is closest to true N. Tropical.

TX is very large with varying climates. Some are almost as far north as the southern tip of IL but most pop is further south.

Like IL vs. NY, we would not expect TX to mirror FL exactly but to be much closer to FL than IL/NY.

Now all 4 together. Notice the "W" shape mixing the N Temperate with N Tropical.

Also notice the obvious high winter peak for NY/IL that drops to near-zero in summer.

Notice the lower wave pattern for FL/TX that never gets to zero. Summer peak occurs; winter peak higher?

Read 4 tweets

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