Thread by @james_acton32

If it's true that the US and the UK are going to help Australia to acquire nuclear submarine technology, they are making a significant mistake.

It will create serious proliferation risk down the line. (1/n)

afr.com/politics/feder…

I'm NOT particularly concerned that Australia will acquire nuclear weapons. I AM concerned that other states will use this precedent to exploit a serious potential loophole in the global nonproliferation regime. (2/n)

Because non-nuclear weapon states are not prohibited by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty from acquiring nuclear-powered submarines, IAEA safeguards permit them to remove nuclear material from safeguards for "non-proscribed military activity." (3/n)

iaea.org/sites/default/…

This is a *huge* loophole that could easily be exploited to enable proliferation. Fortunately, it's never been tested. Non-nuclear weapon states have started programs to develop nuclear powered submarines, but for one reason or another, they have never come to fruition. (4/n)

Brazil is a classic example, which @tkassenova discussed in her excellent Carnegie volume. (5/n)

carnegieendowment.org/2014/03/12/bra…

If the US and UK help Australia acquire nuclear submarines, will they say no to, for example, South Korea, whose nonproliferation credentials are less than perfect (sorry) and which has stronger potential incentives to proliferate? (6/n)

And what about Brazil? Or Saudi Arabia? Or Iran? They could all invoke Australia as a precedent too. (7/n)

Right now--and this is the key point--Russia and China might well oppose any of those states invoking the exemption and levy some serious behind-the-scenes pressure to prevent it. (8/n)

But, if Australia exploits the exception, they'll become much less inclined to levy such pressure because it'll be perpetuating a very real double standard. (9/n)

I'm not an expert in submarine technology and won't try and analyze whether nuclear-powered attack submarines are the most cost-effective way for Australia to meet its (very real) defense needs. (10/n)

But, I find it very hard to believe that the benefits outweigh the risks, given the very real damage to the nonproliferation regime of Australia's acquiring nuclear-powered submarines. (11/11)