Thread by @AliHMokdad

.@IHME_UW extended its forecast to Jan 1, 2022 and now predicts 777,000 cumulative reported #COVID19 deaths by the end of the year. 1/

.@IHME_UW predicts that the US will see a #COVID19 death toll of 423,000 in 2021. That number far surpasses the 354,000 reported #COVID19 deaths in 2020, despite vaccination campaigns and a better understanding of the virus. 2/

The Delta variant was a major factor in 2021. .@IHME_UW models suggest that the decline off the Delta peak will continue to mid-October, with daily deaths reaching below 1,000. 3/

Increasing seasonality at that point will be enough to stop the decline, and cases, hospitalizations, and deaths will increase modestly in November and December. 4/

This winter should be very substantially better than last winter in terms of deaths and somewhat better in terms of cases. 5/

The difference between cases and deaths is driven by the fact that the vaccines are more effective for preventing hospitalization and death than for preventing infection. 6/

It is possible that we will see more transmission than predicted if mitigation measures in schools (elsewhere too), including masking and social distancing are insufficient to stop a major surge in transmission in schools such as has been seen in Scotland. 7/

More evidence is emerging from post-vaccination studies in England, US, Israel, and the long-term follow-up of Pfizer and Moderna trials that vaccine-derived immunity wanes for preventing infection. 8/

This week, some evidence is also emerging that vaccine derived immunity for hospitalization and death may also wane, albeit at a slower rate. 9/

#COVID19 is mutating, this is what such viruses do. So the potential emergence of a new escape variant with increased transmissibility or immune escape is high. 10/

#COVID19 is not done with us and there is still the possibility of a more severe outcome in the winter months if we do not increase vaccination levels and be ready to dial back on relaxing our mitigation measures. end/