.@IHME_UW projects that daily infections will begin increasing in late August, and daily deaths corrected for under-reporting, will drop below 250 by mid-August, but then begin to increase slowly. 1/8 Image
Despite increasing vaccination and declining seasonality, five states have increasing transmission, based on hospitalization data. 2/8 Image
Given over one third of the population has been previously infected with COVID-19, vaccination with two doses is nearing 55% of adults, and seasonality is declining, the increases in transmission in these states is surprising. 3/8
It is likely this increased transmission can be traced to B.1.617.2 or P.1 spread, although it could be just increased interaction in these states. 4/8
Given CDC guidance to not test asymptomatic vaccinated individuals, hospitalization data are likely the best metric currently to track transmission. 5/8
Mask use continues to decline rapidly and mobility is nearly back to pre-COVID-19 baseline levels. 6/8 Image
Given that vaccination will likely run up against the limit of demand by early July, we expect there will be enough individuals who are susceptible to B.1.617.2 or P.1 infection to drive a late fall/winter surge which will slowly begin by late September. 7/8 Image
The most important strategy for the US in the next weeks will be to target the individuals who are unconvinced to get vaccinated. If B.1.617.2 drives more substantial increases in some states, as seen in Scotland, other measures to reduce transmission should be considered. 8/8 Image

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More from @AliHMokdad

12 Jun
#COVID19 surge in the African Region continues to worsen – reported daily cases increased by 25% this week, from 7,100 per day on average to 8,900 per day. Daily deaths increased to 500 per day, compared to 470 last week. 1/6 Image
Winter in southern Africa and the circulation of escape variants (B.1.351 and B.1.617) coupled with the slow pace of vaccination will continue to drive spikes in cases and deaths. 2/6 Image
Sustained increases in reported cases in South Africa as well as sharp rises in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, Namibia, Uganda, and Zambia are of particular concern. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
24 Apr
Global #COVID19 infections at this point have likely exceeded 15 million a day, marking the worst phase of the pandemic by a factor of three or more. 1/6 Image
The global daily reported #COVID19 cases in the last week increased to 726,300 per day on average compared to 641,000 the week before. This is a 13% increase over the last week. 2/6
covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=to…
The global daily COVID19 deaths in the last week increased to 14,400 per day on average compared to 13,200 the week before, a 9% increase. 3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
11 Apr
Globally, reported #COVID19 cases decreased to 512,000 per day on average compared to 532,800 the week before while reported daily deaths increased to 12,200 per day on average compared to 11,100 the week before. Large surges are seen in Iran, Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh. 1/5 ImageImage
in Bangladesh, daily reported cases in the last week increased to 5,200 per day on average compared to 3,000 the week before. Daily deaths in the last week increased to 110 per day on average compared to 67 the week before. 2/5 ImageImage
In Pakistan, daily reported cases in the last week increased to about 4,700 per day on average compared to about 3,700 the week before. Daily deaths in the last week increased to about 84 per day on average compared to about 61 the week before. 3/5 ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
3 Apr
There are five distinct #COVID19 trends globally. 1) In Brazil and some neighboring countries, a P1-driven surge is unfolding with potentially huge impacts on health systems and deaths. 1/10
2) B.1.1.7 surge is unfolding in the northern states of the US and Canada. The rapid increases in cases seen in Michigan may be a marker of what may unfold in other parts of the US and Canada. 2/10
3) Cases and deaths are increasing in Europe despite extensive social distancing mandates, slowly increasing vaccination rates, and reduced mobility. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
2 Apr
تزداد حالات ووفيات #كوفيد١٩ اليومية في الدول العربية. ومع ذالك لا تزال الحركة مرتفعة واستخدام الكمامة منخفض جدًا. هذه التصرفات والانتشار السريع لتحور B.1.1.7 هي أسباب هذه الزيادة. 1/4
covid19.healthdata.org/global
يجب أن تكون التجربة الاوروبية بمثابة تحذير من المخاطر التي ينطوي عليها B.1.1.7.أوروبا فرضت اغلاقات اكثر من الدول العربية ولديها معدلات تطعيم أعلى من المنطقة ، لكنها شهدت زيادات كبيرة في الحالات اليومية وزيادات أبطأ في الوفيات اليومية. 2/4
يتطلب مسار الوباء في المنطقة تدابير وقائية أقوى ويعتمد على الاستجابة السلوكية من حيث الثقة في اللقاح واستخدام الكمامة وتجنب المواقف التي تشكل خطرًا كبيرًا لانتشار الوباء. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
11 Dec 20
.@IHME_UW new projections of #COVID19 cumulative deaths in the US by April 1 have been reduced to 502,000. This welcomed decline is due to 2 factors. 1/8
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
In this week’s update, the impact of vaccination is greater due to information in the Pfizer FDA filing, which shows approximately 50% protection after the first dose, and data on a larger number of doses available sooner in the US. 2/8
The epidemic in the US appears to have leveled off in many Midwestern states while continuing to increase on the West Coast and in parts of the Northeast. 3/8
Read 8 tweets

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