Hello #opex Friday!

Quick recap of drivers in Global Macro WTD
$SPX +0.34%
$VIX 18.69 -10.79%
$USD 92.92 +0.36%
$WTIC 72.61 +4.15%
$TNX 1.331 -0.75%
$GOLD 1757 -1.98%
$DAX 15652 +0.27%

So, overall risk assets have fared well ↗️

Let's dig into the early morning data!
After a week that saw weakness in HSI -5.87% and SSEC -2.59%, Asian equities closed ↗️ on the day

$NIKK 30500 +0.6%
$SSEC 3614 +0.2%
$TWII 12277 unch
$HSI 24882 +0.9%
$KOSPI 3141 +0.3%
$IDX 6133 +0.4%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7404 -0.75%

India ↗️
$BSE 59262 +0.2%
Europe building ↗️ on Thursday's gains

$DAX 15713 +0.4%
$FTSE 7046 +0.25%
$CAC 6683 +0.9%
$AEX 803 +0.6%
$IBEX 8624 +1.15%
$MIB 26122 +0.6%
$SMI 12066 +0.3%
$MOEX 4044 unch
🇺🇸 futures little changed ↔️ into monthly #opex

$ES 4474 unch
$NQ 15510 -0.05%
$RTY 2236 unch

$VIX 18.55 🔻
After yesterday's drubbing that saw GOLD -2.12% and COPPER -2.84%, metals are catching a bid ↗️

$GOLD 1764 +0.4% with $GVZ 15.92 🔺
$SILVER 23.087 +1.3%
$COPPER 4.35 +1.5%
$PLAT 938 +1.6%
$PALL 2034 +0.6%
$ALI 2916 +0.9%
$ZINC 3105 +1.0%
Hydrocarbons continue to pull back ↘️ after WTIC and BRENT broke out on Wednesday

$WTIC 72.27 -0.4% with $OVX 33.16 🔺
$BRENT 75.44 -0.3%
$GASO 2.1735 -0.35%
$NATGAS 75.44
Grains are trading ↔️

$WHEAT 714 +0.2%
$CORN 529 +0.2%
$SOYB 1289 -0.5%
$SUGAR 19.46 -0.3%
The USD coming in ↘️ particular vs CAD 🇨🇦 but stronger vs JPY 🇯🇵

$USD 92.778 -0.15%
$EUR 1.178 +0.13%
$GBP 1.381 +0.15%
$AUD .7319 +0.4%
$USDJPY 109.96 +0.25% 🇯🇵
$USDCHF .927 -0.1%
$USDCAD 1.264 -0.3% 🇨🇦
$USDRUB 72.582 +0.05%
UST yields drifting ↗️
10/2s to 111.7 BPS
MOVE 53.70 🔻

2Y .224
5Y .847
10Y 1.341
30Y 1.886

Global 10Ys mostly ↗️
JPN 0.044 🔻
Fasten your seat belts as we may be in for a bit of 💨 with hedgers likely to re-hedge into #FOMC next week

USD ↘️ should support your long 🇪🇺 exposure

Continuing to #BTFD in $SPYG and $URA and will re-open a position in $DBC

Have a super 💰 profitable day and a 😎 weekend!

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More from @tdarling1

19 Sep
Global Macro Review 09/19/2021

1/13

#OPEX did not disappoint.

Volatility ↗️, SPX sold ↘️, and the USD ↗️ for the 2nd week in a row, causing damage to EU and EM longs.

Let’s dig in to the damage done and opportunities ahead

(Please retweet ❤️)
2/13

After coming in early in the week, equity vol (especially VIX) accelerated into OPEX, but ended ↘️ for the week

$VIX 20.81 -0.67%
$VXN 22.27 -2.11%
$RVX 26.43 -6.57
$VXEEM 24.26 +3.03%

Chart: $VIX weekly +0.53% on a (T) duration (3-months) and finding resistance Image
3/13

True to #OPEX form $SPX closed ↘️ for the second week in a row taking $COMPQ with it while $IWM eked out small gain

$SPX 4433 -0.57% ♉️
$COMPQ 14054 -0.47% ♉️
$IWM 222.48 +0.39% (N) where N = neutral trend

Chart: $SPX -2.6% into #OPEX on volume, as it has for past 4 mos Image
Read 14 tweets
1 Aug
Global macro review

1/14

It’s a new month! 🐰 🐰

Let’s look back on July for positioning clues ahead

Notables:
$GLD ♉️
$TLT ♉️
$FXF ♉️
$CORN 🐻
$SILVER 🐻
$EEM 🐻
$DAX and $XLE teetering on 🐻
2/14

The UST curve flattened in July with 10/2s to 103.8 BPS. MOVE 61.19 +5.01%

2Y .188 -24.5%
5Y .694 -20.69%
10Y 1.226 -15.10%
30Y 1.895 -1.46%

Chart: $TNX peaked in March at 1.765% and since rolled over $TNX peaked in March at 1.765% and since rolled over
3/14

Bond ETFs ↗️ with curve flattening

$TLT +3.72%
$TIP +2.68%
$IVOL +2.52%
$IEF +1.99%
$BNDX +1.49%
$LQD +1.42%
$BND +1.17%
$HYG +-0.1%

Chart: Convertibles bucked the trend with $CWB -1.07% Convertibles bucked the trend with $CWB -1.07%
Read 16 tweets
30 Jul
Hello, Friday and the last trading day of July!

Risk assets under pressure 🟥 this morning, but with JPOW support, it's been a good week to date:

COPPER +2.8%
GOLD +1.9%
WHEAT +3.1%
WTIC +2.15%
XLE +3.15%
XME +8.0%

Let's dig into the early morning data!
Asia closed ↘️🟥

$NIKK 27284 -1.8%
$SSEC 3397 -0.4%
$TWII 17247 -0.9%
$HSI 25908 -1.3%
$KOSPI 3202 -1.25%
$IDX 6070 -0.8%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7393 -0.4%

India ↗️
$BSE 52813 +0.3% <<
Europe under pressure ↘️

$DAX 15514 -0.8%
$FTSE 7035 -0.6%
$CAC 6635 unch
$AEX 756 -0.3%
$IBEX 8741 -0.5%
$MIB 25486 -0.1%
$SMI 12071 -0.1%
$MOEX 3786 -0.5%
Read 10 tweets
29 Jul
Hello Thursday!

You avoided the 🐫 because JPOW skirted his mandate. #Inflation? 🪛 it. Let is run 🔥

You know what to do.
Short USD. Long CRB & GOLD.

Let's dig into the morning data!
Asia bounced off oversold levels ↗️

$NIKK 27784 +0.7%
$SSEC 3412 +1.5%
$TWII 17403 +1.55%
$HSI 26244 +3.25%
$KOSPI 3243 +0.2%
$IDX 6121 +0.5%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7417 +0.5%

India ↗️
$BSE 52698 +0.5%
Europe trading ↗️ with stronger Euro

$DAX 15601 +0.2%
$FTSE 7067 +0.7%
$CAC 6656 +0.7%
$AEX 753 +0.7%
$IBEX 8796 +0.7%
$MIB 25401 +0.55%
$SMI 12084 +0.1%
$MOEX 3800 +0.5%
Read 10 tweets
28 Jul
Hello hump 🐫 day!

A little bit of mean reversion with the #FOMC decision due at 2PMEST is the perfect set up for the 🐫

Let's dig into the overnight data!
Asia ↔️ but mostly ↘️

$NIKK 27582 -1.4%
$SSEC 3362 -0.6%
$TWII 17135 -0.8%
$HSI 25421 +1.45% 🇭🇰
$KOSPI 3237 +0.1%
$IDX 6089 -0.15%

Australia ↘️
7379 -0.7%

India ↘️
$BSE 52424 -0.3%
Europe ↗️ after a day that saw $AEX ↘️ -1.0%

$DAX 15557 +0.25%
$FTSE 7013 +0.25%
$CAC 6576 +0.7%
$AEX 743 +0.7%
$IBEX 8747 +0.6%
$SMI 12064 +0.35%
$MOEX 3754 +0.55%
Read 10 tweets
27 Jul
Hello, Tuesday and a similar "🟥 sky" start to the day

We all know what happened yesterday - traders #BTFD sending $BTC and $COPPER 🚀 with the $USD ↘️

Repeat today? or is ⚠️ the word in the face of the 🇨🇳🇭🇰 crash and the start to the #FOMC meeting?

Let's dig in!
🇨🇳 and 🇭🇰 under significant ↘️ pressure

$SSEC 3381 -2.5% 🇨🇳
$HSI 25061 -4.4% 🇭🇰
$NIKK 27970 +0.5%
$TWII 17270 -0.8%
$KOSPI 3233 +0.25%
$IDX 6097 -0.15%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7431 +0.5%

India ↘️
$BSE 52534 -0.6%
Europe ↔️ yesterday but ↘️ today 🟥

$DAX 15487 -0.85%
$FTSE 6966 -0.85%
$CAC 6537 -0.6%
$AEX 739 -0.8%
$IBEX 8707 -0.8%
$MIB 25092 -0.8%
$SMI 12003 -0.4%
$MOEX 3750 unch
Read 10 tweets

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