I think both #nifty and #banknifty have made short term TOP

I see 15% correction from here from trading point of view

Long term view (2 yrs) is super bullish (just to avoid confusion)

Unless some short covering comes in last hour, I will go with simple Buy PE in both indices
As said above, going home with simple ATM weekly Put buy on both the indices

expecting a good gap down tomorrow
Squared off all index positions. Will wait for day low to be broken. Then will take a call. Today short covering might not come, it's going to be sell on rise for intraday
I have bought plain vanilla ATM PUT for both #nifty and #banknifty

This week i am avoiding selling any option as when VIX is expanding, it has higher chances of loss,

Option selling is all about saving yourself from few biggest losses in a year

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Conservative Trader

Conservative Trader Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @AnandableAnand

22 Sep
Managing long term portfolio

With very little efforts you can beat any mutual fund while being buy only long term investors,

First, why many mutual funds underperform the index on a long term average

1. they have to keep cash for redemptions, which gives little returns

2. They have to pay overheads like salaries, office expenses, sales and marketing expenses which is around 5-6% of the AUM they handle

smaller the MF, higher will be such % but bigger MFs have different problem
3. When market falls rapidly, like march 2020, they see huge redemptions as everyone wants to be out before others

So literally they are forced to sell their long term holdings because of short term market shake outs
Read 22 tweets
20 Sep
China’s credit market: as crisis unfolds #Evergrande

From 2008 onwards, to match projected GDP numbers of 10%,

china made 300 cities which are loosely called ghost cities of china

Video of Al Jazeera Is from 2009,

This growth of GDP was fuelled buy Chinese PSUs and state govts taking loans to complete these projects

These loans were short tenor loans with frequent refinancing. This was done to keep a tight control over their finances and operations without letting the credit risk spread
Later majority of these corporations floated bonds which also had implicit (important word) guarantee by the CCP (party)

Most such investments in a command economy are not productive, but who cares till GDP numbers look good and outside investors are in awe.
Read 20 tweets
10 Sep
Everyone wants them to be your number one priority

But they keep you on standby, sometimes last priority

Why so? are people so mean and selfish?

No, they are not
this behaviour is part of our evolution process,

little before industrial revolution and if u go to stone age then all the more clear,

human beings were struggling for resources, food shelter etc,
plus only goal of the species is to maintain best gene pool,

that requires us to constantly look for best possible mate, and dominate the situation at all times

This is hard wired in our brain, just the way hunger for food is hard wired
Read 9 tweets
7 Sep
People dont change

No matter how much we pray and expect them to change, in a short span of time, people don't change

As we are sum of our habits,

these habits are hard wired in our brain,

to change these wiring, requires either painful integration of new habits

Or sudden change in their life situation, especially sudden loss of job or loved ones etc

If a person is lazy, very unlikely that motivational books will help him

If a person is always late to meetings, expecting him to be on time is inviting lot of heart burn

Similarly if someone is compulsive eater or prone to substance abuse, not able to focus on steady job

rather than praying for him/her to change, one should prepare for the eventuality, what ever it might entail
Read 5 tweets
31 Aug
The speed with which big Banks adapt to change in environment is commendable

Smaller banks and NBFCs either cant do that (because of regulation or lack of strategy)

#HDFCBank had a retail heavy book for last 20 yrs, now corporate book is bigger and expanding fast (53% now)

as HDFC Bank sees that, fintech riding on ponzi scheme of valuation and VC money, will eat away CASA, will eat away fee income related to retail

but regulation will not allow fintech to even look at corporate loans, so not only hedged, but double down with AT1 of USD 1 billion
#AXISBank has closed all foreign subsidiaries except UK, these subsidiaries are not easy, as in china you have to have 5 yrs of Rep office then only you can apply for a licence and once surrendered, you cant re-apply , so big shift in strategy
Read 6 tweets
31 Aug
My mood right now 😅😅😅😅
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!