Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #nifty

Most recents (24)

In every market cycle, value investors don't make money during the blow out phase.

When markets correct thereafter, value investors lose some money.

Then, when do value investors make money? What gives them higher returns?
#investing #valueinvesting
Most followers actually don't know the answers. In fact, many possibly even question if value investors actually make decent money. They expect returns to always show up in a linear, visible mode.

But where value investors focus upon, this can never happen. #investing #nifty 2/7
When you keenly follow a value investor without understanding his mindset, timeline & investment style , what happens?
It could lead to your own behaviour & weakness impacting far more than merit of the borrowed ideas.His strengths are not going to work for you. 3/7 #investing
Read 7 tweets
#Option #Greeks Simplified

#Options are definitely more complicated than equity or futures.

Their prices don’t just go up and down.

They also fluctuate based on things like #time, #implied #volatility and #underlying stock movements.
#Options #Greeks Are Simply Mathematical Shortforms

Most of you would remember from school that mathematical formulas sometimes were #Greek letters like Pi and #Delta. The same is true for options.

Don’t let them overwhelm you or scare you.
They’re simply #mathematical words to explain some very basic principles.

#Greeks Describe the Behavior of #Individual #Options

Each #greek can help predict how it will behave under different circumstances and how options prices would change.
Read 22 tweets
India MPC - Initial thoughts
1. No cut was a surprise. I had gone in with 35!
2. Looks like the RBI listened to the market which has been saying that further cuts will not help revive growth.
3. Clearly RBI is satisfied with transmission - 137 in call money and 218 in CPs! /1
India MPC - Initial thoughts

4. Inflation per RBI seems a much greater risk than the market sees it. H2 revision from 3.5-3.7 to 4.7-5.1 is massive!
5. Growth revised down from 6.1 to 5 but there is belief that whatever the govt is doing to revive growth is /will work /2
India MPC - Initial thoughts

Bonds have expectedly sold off more than 10 bps. Expect 10 yr to settle around 6.50%. Rupee seems unchanged at 71.57 and Nifty is holding above 12k.
Read 4 tweets
I will try to post charts and analysis one day before the trading day from here on, as I am getting requests on the same.

Price closed above 11970 in #NIFTY which is a very good sign for bulls,
If the price accepts above this level tomorrow, I am expecting a good up move.
However, the 11990-12010 zone is very crucial for buyers tomorrow.

If price fails to trade above this zone comfortably, price is expected to trade within bracket 11890-12010.

Crucial levels for #NIFTY
11900,11940,11970 & 12010
The decisiveness of buyers is quite strong in #BANKNIFTY compared to #NIFTY and the trend is very clear here.
Price acceptance above 31315 is a necessity to get further upmove.

Crucial levels for #BANKNIFTY
30950,31150 & 31315

respect the RISK!

Read 3 tweets
Friends, sharing a trading strategy which I have started trading live from Friday... in addition to my existing strategies (long-term EMA, short-term MAST)... have allocated a separate sum of 1 Cr for this strategy...the trading plan/ rules of this new strategy are as below (1/n)
(a) Every day, buy 4 lots of #nifty FUT
(b) At mkt opening every day, keep the buy order at 1 point below yesterday's close
(c) In case the order doesn't get executed till 3:25pm, convert into a market order and buy at mkt price (2/n)
(d) As soon as your daily buy order is executed, sell next month's OTM CE (same 4 lot qty) which should be minimum 600 points away from current #nifty FUT buying price
(e) So basically, every day you buy 4 lots of FUT and sell 4 lots of OTM CE (next month...600 points away) (3/n)
Read 12 tweets

It Is An Auspicious Time For Investment, But Last Two Diwali's have Not been very Good for Many Portfolio's

How Are We Poised To Fare Between Current & Next Diwali?

A Short Thread On Our Expectations-
#Nifty & #BankNifty in Overbought Zone With Potential Of Price Or Time Correction Till Q1-2020

We Had tweeted Abt How BNF Corrections Run Five Qtr & Expected till Jun20

These Indices Are Not Budging & Sell Signal here Doesn't Mean Price Correction, Can Be time Correction
#CNX500 is in Same Boat As Nifty & BankNifty Mainly Due To Weights of HDBK & RIL
Read 7 tweets
For all you brainy chaps who are buying Bharti Airtel in the hope of an end to the price war, please do remember that you are buying the company at its PEAK Market Cap #Nifty
Oh! did I mention that the current PEAK market cap of Bharti Airtel already factors in an end of price competition with Jio (as if it ended today) BUT has the competition ended? And, what's the Jio management repeatedly saying? #Nifty #BigShort?
Final nail in the coffin on why Bharti is the #BigShort. Not only is its peak market cap already factoring an end of competition without any sign of it. It has also been selling assets so one needs to look at proportional EBITDA. Peak market cap for FY13 EBITDA in FY21. 😂#Nifty
Read 7 tweets
Just Amused With Queries On Such #Simple 1-2-3 Pattern, So Giving Few Current Examples In #Thread To Make It Even More Clear! Stocks Which We Traded & Tracking

In This Pattern #StockSelection & #TimeBalance Is The Key!

Buy Strongest Stock, Sell Weakest

Scroll For Examples👇

Stock Is In Daily Uptrend, Corrected For 3-4 Days, Then Made 1-2-3 Pattern with Entry at 61.75

In Few Hours 5% Movement, Thats 60k Per Lot , Traded This 🙂
#VOLTAS on 30M

Stock is SuperStrong & Correcting Since Few Days, Then Made 1-2-3 Pattern & Blasted

Cool 15K Per Lot & Traded
Read 9 tweets
Thread on Basics of Futures and Options
Trying to explain in easy terms and using examples of indian stock market


#fno #nifty #bnf

Futures or Options or any other Derivative product for that matter is just a contract

Unlike buying a share in cash market you are not entitled to any dividends,bonus,right shares or voting rights.

Derivatives are just a contract between two person

As the name suggests a derivative derives its value from its underlying. So in case of a future contract. Its value will be dependent on the the price of underlying. So if underlying increases so will the futures and vice versa.

Read 14 tweets
Nifty Monthly Chart since Inception 1996-2019
Nifty's Last 21 months Jan18-Sept19 have been like being at the Tip of an Iceberg.
What's happening at this Tip on PriceFlow ?
#Nifty Monthly Chart since 2013
If Indicators matter, what does ADX have to say?
#Nifty Monthly Chart since 2013
If Indicators matter, what does Bollinger have to say?
Read 8 tweets
(1/n) •Domestic company corp tax cut from 30% to 22 % percent if
they don't avail any exemptions or incentives from FY20
• Effective tax for these companies rate 25.17 percent inclusive of all
surcharge and cesses. Applicable for current fiscal
(2/n) *listed companies which have announced buyback of shares prior to July 5 will not be charged with super rich tax
*All the measures announced will give relief of 1.45 lakh crores annually
(3/n) *Roll back of enhanced surcharge introduced in Budget on capital gain arising from sale of equity shares in a company liable for STT .
* super-rich tax will not to apply on capital gains from sale of any security including derivatives for FPIs.
Read 15 tweets
Few points to ponder on Longer TF
- Rising Trendline since 2008 currently placed roughly around 9000 (Long TF)
- Rising Trendline since Dec. 2016 from 6825 have been breached on monthly basis and currently placed above 11300. so close above it is needed

- breached 7 MEMA and tested 20 MEMA ( also middle BB)
What happend once 20 MEMA was breached ??
Only 3 instances of corrections
- Since 2003 in 2008 (Crash)
- 2011-12-13 (Minor)
- 2015 (deep)
* MEMA = Monthly EMA


- Since 2003 only once 54 MEMA have been breached that was in 2008 crash
- in 2011 & 2016 took support at 54 MEMA and reversed
- currently 54 MEMA is placed at 9765
Read 15 tweets
1/ I see lot Of Comments That Nifty Is Just 7-8% off From ATH & There Is Lot More To Come On #Nifty & #BearMarket Has Just Started

Nifty Was Made Free Float MCap Based Index Sometime In 2009, Since Then It Has Become LopSided Index. IMO It Doesn't Reflect Mkt Realities
2/ Taking Nifty Returns From Dec17 Till Aug19 It's +3.8%
If You Take Nifty 50 Constituents, Median Return In Same Period is -14% & Average Return -7%

Better Parameter Is Too Take Median Returns of All NSE Stocks

It's Currently At -48%, Was -54% In 2001 & -72% In 2008 Bear Mkt
3/ Taking 2001 & 2008 As Benchmark Which Were Worst Bear Markets, We Have Already Traversed 70-80% Of Bear Market

In My Opinion This Bear Mkt Won't End with 40-50% Correction On Nifty As people Are Talking

We Are At Fag End Of Bear Mkt IMO

Time Shall Answer Lot Of Questions!!
Read 3 tweets
FIIs have been selling for the last 2 days, despite the govt's relief policies. US-China trade war is a bigger factor for global investments incl. India...Case in point: on Mon after a gap-up Nifty went down in the neg territory, recovering only after positive news on US-China
Almost everybody knew FPI surcharge will be rolled back it was evident. Do you think FPIs were waiting for formal announcement by the govt. Auto sector has been lobbying for cut in GST, the measures announced don't seem to be enough.
For the NBFCs and rather struggling NBFCs a separate fund acting as lender of last resort needed to be created, this also did not come by. The govt. revenue target don't seem achievable, a higher fiscal deficit now seems a given...
Read 6 tweets
Data points under consideration:
1. PCR

If found useful "RT"
Please don't take it as long term view I am just anticipating a bounce over here

a. According to the data plotted above it being observed that PCR is constantly under falling zone it was getting stuck towards the zone of 1.3 - 1.0 and it fell below 1 today ~0.8 which means OI of CALLS>OI of PUTS
b. Seeing the IV data of NIFTY its being observed that when PCR is constantly falling, IV is setting the higher tones which very conclusive to say that "SHORT COVERING" on PUTS is bringing more pain to INDEX and if this SHORT COVERING continues INDEX will fall further down
Read 8 tweets
#TRADING HTF pivots vs price behaviour; Usually HTF pivots, monthly upper pivots acts as a resistance and monthly lower pivots acts as a support; if any of these breaks, there exists a prospective rally; it was observed in #BANKNIFTY AND #NIFTY today ....
....Price was hovering around Monthly upper pivot region for almost 2.5 hours before it broke out convincingly and subsequently a rally followed. Shows the significance and power of pivots and more particularly HTF pivots. The blue zone is the Monthly CPR (Central Pivot range).
Another eg of the significance of HTF pivots.... In this case the illustration is its resistance power.... Note price tries to break the Blue upper boundary and fails and drops all the way down....
Read 3 tweets
is market fairly valued or not?
understanding few basic concepts
The earnings that we generally expect to grow by 14-15% every year, assuming the real growth of GDP to be 8% and inflation to be 6%.
In the last 4-5 yrs the GDP growth has disappointed. (1/n)
That does not mean we believe the growth rate expected in future should be lowered, we still believe based on RBI and govt comments that India is a country where to employ the large number of people that join the workforce every year, we need 8% real GDP growth and (2/n)
Read 21 tweets
Today there was -ve news in IT sector. Nifty opened gap down and BN opened gap up.
Everyone would have thought about index managment.
I thought as IT is -ve, if Nifty has to hold, BN will move up. But, exactly opposite happend after open...
....IT made DL and recovered, while, BN fell sharply. Nifty was hovering near opening level.
By 9:30 AM, BN broke lows of June 19th and 18th to make new swing lows. Nifty, NF and BNF didn't break lows of June 19th. Nifty had broken June 18th's low on June 19th...
...So the current scenario was both #Banknifty and #Nifty had broken lows of June 18th.
Now along with this there was huge increase in premiums of future. In the opening minutes NF wasn't falling and only spot was falling. Also today was ex-dividend date of #Hdfcbank...
Read 18 tweets

Before i share this setup, let me tell you this is not a easy setup to trade without deep understanding.

So let's discuss the setup and what does it mean!!

Rules For Sell

1. New 20 period high should have been made today.

2. Previous 20 period high should have been made minimum 3/4 days before.

3. Close above previous 20 day high or not is optional.

How to implement?

1. Once we get new 20 period high stock, on same day/ next day we place sell stoploss order few ticks below previous 20 period high.

2. Stoploss : few tick above Latest high

3. Target : 1:5 R:R achievable (trail stop after 1:2 R:R)

Read 27 tweets

Read 9 tweets
#Nifty low-IV strategy - I will call it "Krauncha Vyuha" Crane-shaped strategy.

lf stays between 10900-11400 then ThetaDecay max profit at 11111 for 31k.

If goes above 11400 then minimum loss

if goes below 10900 - exponential profit.

Vega High+ve, Theta & Delta slight -ve.
For educational purpose here is the Greekvalue #Nifty
#nifty #nifty50 booked partial profit on downside from options strategy, (exited 2lot of 11100 CE sold) now position looks like below. If nifty tries to touch 11k again, will do the same Crane Shape by selling 11100 CE
Read 3 tweets
#Chapter2 : Trend Trading .

Traders first priority is to take a trade basis the trend. Trend in simple terms means, following the direction of the Market.

Which also means, being with the forces who create the direction, who drive the prices, who move the market, SmartMoney.
What is Smart Money ?

Traders Small or Big who buy or sell in large quantities and have the money power to play with prices by buying or selling at important price points.

They decide if the Price is Undervalued for a Buying Opportunity or Over Valued for Selling Opportunity.
As the Buying or Selling happens in Bulk, their Profitability depends on How far they can push the price, so that they can cover whole of their orders with out loosing much.

They have the power to hold positions and keep rolling it over for Years or Decades if they decide to do.
Read 73 tweets
#Nifty F Hypo. Open right below prev day's established value. Acceptance above 10680 is the key for upside. Below 10680 may rotate to fill prev days minus development
If I have to simplify Market Profile w/o any lingo then I'd say forget value area, just remember thick TPO clusters (above 10680) and single or double TPOs (below 10680).
Forget market profile day types just remember b-shape,p-shape and D-shape
If price accepts near the lower end of the thick TPO cluster then mostly it travels pass through the entire cluster to test cluster high. This observation is valid on any time frame- single day TPO cluster, 3-10 days composite TPO cluster. (On daily TF you call it 80% rule).
Read 7 tweets

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