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29 Sep, 4 tweets, 4 min read
Estimatd #Lab21 CLP faction wash-up frm NCC/card votes: @labtowin 47% (+26%) @PeoplesMomentum/@CLPD_Labour 35% (-27%), Ind Left/Soft Left/Oth 18% (+1%) - no clear @OpenLabour vote in that. Overall Left vote down frm 70% to 49% in NCC vote. Swing 26.5% to @labtowin since last conf
Just 2 add single parl candidate election card vote leadrship lost at #lab21 looks like a 1-off outlier 2 a pretty consistnt othr set of results. Howevr if u adjustd all oth result 4 that the result wd b @labtowin 39%, @PeoplesMomentum/@CLPD_Labour 35%, Ind Left/Soft Left/Oth 26%
For comparison with #Lab21 the #Lab19 CLP vote breakdown was as follows:
Using NCC vote as a proxy 4 comparative CLP delegate share 4 2015, 2016,2017, 2018, 2019,2021 @CLPD_Labour/@PeoplesMomentum vote share was 42%, 41%, 71%, 80%, 70%, 49% whilst @labtowin was 58%, 53%, 28%, 17%, 21% 51% This provides further comparison with #Lab21

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More from @charliemansell

Charlie Mansell Profile picture
23 Sep
@AaronBastani @Keir_Starmer I can't see him beating a range of strong women candidates next time. Not even sure he will do that well in any new PLP 3rd of the vote ballot as a lot of past Tweets will come back to haunt him. Looks like a 10-20% candidate so far. Surely more hoping for a Deputy opportunity?
@AaronBastani @Keir_Starmer What every1 (esp Lord Mandelson) is not realising is opening a ballot to 2m levy payers with a likely 8% t/o (ie 160k) is in the self-organising social media age it will see up to 20k to 80k angry ex-members signing up via TUs (mainly Unite) & voting "against" candidates.
@AaronBastani @Keir_Starmer Whereas in 2020 dynamic was mainly pro-EU membs joining Party 2 vote, we can see frm the as expected poor Coyne 3rd place that there is no motivation on that side anymore & it will b replacd by a 50k+ bloc in a 160k voting section looking 2 use its vote effectively against people
Read 6 tweets
Charlie Mansell Profile picture
23 Sep
It is quite remarkable to watch over 41 years how OMOV has gone frm a demand of the Campaign for Labour Victory (CLV) which ended up in the SDP to then migrate across the Party spectrum to now a likely long-term demand of the other wing now
OMOV was in the past seen as a party reform tool by Leaderships. Now it is clearly a more insurgent policy position, but all experience shows it tends to win in the long-term as that is what a membership left or right now expects for its payment
This is significant as in 90's recruiting a large more extrinsically values instrumental big membership was seen as a good thing by Leadership. Now membership composition is much more post-materialist expressive & consequently framing of it looks to return to view in 50's & 60's
Read 4 tweets
Charlie Mansell Profile picture
14 Nov 20
@davidjrosenberg We can't say that for sure. in the last elections the "Blank and Invalid" section was separate if you see here labour.org.uk/activist-hub/g…
@davidjrosenberg In the current report the two sections are merged. labour.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
@davidjrosenberg When it comes to multiple elections, loads of voters may not vote in one or other election. 4 example young membs might choose to only vote in the YL election to support a cand they know. In 2020 by-elections 96k voted in the leadership but not in the NEC elections
Read 6 tweets
Charlie Mansell Profile picture
16 Jun 20
@LabourList @MattWrack @ForwardMmtm This poses big question of wd @Open_Selection have won at 2018 conf. Looking at CV8 there was a pretty solid 45% in favour of compromise with definite 35% which wanted OS. In effect it was down to @UnitePolitics 20% to decide. However the reasons for their vote r not covered here
@LabourList @MattWrack @ForwardMmtm @Open_Selection @UnitePolitics If @UnitePolitics had chosen to vote down CV8 in 2018 then other options wd have come into play. As they did not, perhaps they need to be asked first b4 anyone else?
@LabourList @MattWrack @ForwardMmtm @Open_Selection @UnitePolitics If people want to consider another aspect, because of 2023 boundary changes it will have been 10 YEARS (2014-2024) since 200+ CLPs without a Lab MP already allowed to practice @Open_Selection will have been allowed to have a selection meeting!
Read 7 tweets

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