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Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
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30 Sep, 14 tweets, 3 min read
THREAD ON MANDATE DEADLINES THIS WEEK: Today, September 30th, was a major vaccine mandate deadline for a lot of institutions. The numbers are good. A few quick takeaways from my work about what was good, what could get better, and what to expect. 1/
1. FDA approval of Pfizer in August changed everything. It provided cover to push for mandates as it took away any slightly rational reason to oppose vaccines. It launched the tidal wave. It came (too) late in the pandemic. 1/

2. The polling about potential for walkouts was horrible and let MAGA/FOX etc manipulate it. Generally if you ask someone would they like to do what they are doing, they will say yes. The better polling was to ask the unvaccinated what would move them. 2/
That polling consistently showed that the unvaccinated would move if denied something they valued. They were fickle, flakey, nervous, maybe didn't feel the need. They were mostly not anti-vaxxers. So we work with that. We needed to listen to them. 3/

3. Media portrayal of what was going to happen was inexcusable at first; the story seems to have shifted. Headlines never had denominators. Panic is good copy. I get that. But it really was inaccurate. There was never any crisis. The numbers were always heading towards success.4/
4. On substance, it is simplistic to say these were mandate deadline policies. Of those that have worked, the deadline was just part of an overall strategy: a long runway to give people time; medical and health information sessions; easy access; paid time off if ill. 5/
But the final piece of that strategy was contingency planning. Cooly, wisely, these institutions began to think through what actually would happen and make plans. Treat the unvaccinated as replaceable. "You want to leave? No problem." 6/
These were often made public. Some companies, like United, saw huge upticks in applications for hiring actually; the employment market, and the company's employees, are demanding vaccination. 7/
In other words, employers or institutional heads did not blink. They called the bluff. It can come off as harsh, but only if you solely consider the unvaccinated's feelings. The vaccinated, much more in number, have equities too. 8/
5. Unions lied about the numbers.That is all. Many public safety and other unions were on the wrong side of this, missing an opportunity to help employees gain rights in a post-Covid world. They didn't, for that matter, represent their membership well b/c most were vaccinated. 9/
6. I still think public health messaging is too "nice" (is that a criticism?). I get that professional needs suggest that they don't want to come on as heavies, but many big voices in the field were late to come out strong and even provide cover. 10/
7. What's next? We'll still learn. Mandates came online as Delta variant began to scare a lot of folks. Causation is difficult, but we do know that employer based mandates showed huge upswings in vaccinations. 11/

There will be a lot more mandates now. More and more and more. AT&T just announced. Airlines should too. As the Delta deaths go down, and mandates go up, it is really a hopeful moment. Take the win. Do not blink. 12/12
7.

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More from @juliettekayyem

Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
30 Aug
For people worried about #HurricaneIda and family and friends there, much like having early judgments about the scope of an evacuation after a war is lost, it is hard to assess a storm in real time. It just is. 1/
Systems go out, but generators go on, systems reconnect. Bridges sway. Barges come unmoored. It is bad, but extent of bad can’t be assessed yet. The only thing that matters is human life. Many couldn’t evacuate. 2/
There were 50 levee failures in Katrina, some of them took a lot of time to identify. Do they hold this time? How many? And if they don’t, once winds pass, can more people be evacuated (Katrina deaths were mostly drownings after storm passed). 3/
Read 7 tweets
Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
24 Aug
Biden sticks to 8/31 but with caveat. Today Burns meets Taliban. Evacuations scale. Taliban says 8/31 again to assert control b/c to concede it would be bad for them. Doesn’t mention Burns. Biden repeats deadline, but states huge caveat, the best for both sides. 1/
Put the other way, if Biden announced extension, the likely result is more danger for troops who will be seen as under no requirement to leave by elements of uncontrolled Taliban and ISIS. The mission, not the date, matters. And which decision protects mission today? 2/
ironically by not extending, we’ve actually bought more time because we haven’t changed a thing. Another day. More planes. Keep moving. It is not our country. The victor has a say. Extend the reckoning. Yes, everything bad. This could be the less bad option? 3/
Read 5 tweets
Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
18 Aug
As the 9/11 anniversary approaches and we focus on terrorism from Afghanistan, it is an easy talking point (and clickbait) to simply say we are back to where we started or at risk the same as 9/11. Our exit does change our capacity against terror. That is obvious. But 1/
it is not simply a dynamic that the risk has increased so therefore we are doomed. So passive. 6 variables to consider, all dynamic. Certitude is unhelpful: a)Taliban capacity and motivation to keep Al Qaeda in check; b)Al Qaeda's real capacity to train and launch attacks; 2/
c)Taliban competition with ISISK; d)Pakistan, Russia and China influence on Taliban to control terror; e)international focus and non military ("over the horizon") tactics for counterterror efforts since 2001; f)homeland defense capacity since 2001. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
15 Aug
What does Afghanistan's fall mean for US counterterrorism efforts, original purpose of our involvement? Lots of takes, filled with certainty, but the answer is not clear yet. As someone whose lane is homeland security, these are questions that might be helpful. Questions only. 1/
#1: Does this increase, decrease, or neither our efforts against transnational terror threats? Bin Laden gone, we destroyed AQD, and related groups have not been able to set up shop in another failed state. This will go to whether the Taliban is the same as it was in 2001. 2/
#2: What (covert) capabilities do we still have to prevent, mitigate, disrupt terrorism from Afghanistan? There are sources of terror around the world where US doesn’t have combat troops on the ground. We need to retain over the horizon counter-terrorism abilities. How? 3/
Read 7 tweets
Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
13 Aug
Skydiver Bill Booth and Booth's Rule #2 can tell us a lot about this careless phase of the pandemic. Stick with this. Like in diving, surfing or other high risk sports, as equipment became safer, the fatality rate remained exactly the same. There was simply a risk offset. 1/
“The safer skydiving gear becomes, the more chances skydivers will take, in order to keep the fatality rate constant," Booth noted. Parachutes are safer, but also faster, with high performing canopies pushing divers who become too confident because of these safety features. 2/
What was worse, the careless behavior was harming the safer divers and surfers: more fatal crashes, more collisions, more drownings as the safe riders tried to avoid the offsetting ones. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Juliette Kayyem Profile picture
27 Jul
I too am at wits end, but the takeaway from the CDC today isn't about masking. It is the science. Delta is infecting a small proportion of people who are fully vaccinated, allowing them then to transmit more easily than the original or alpha strains. We are spreaders.
I just advise based on the science. Not a doctor. But this line in guidance stands out as driving change: "However, preliminary evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people who do become infected with the Delta variant can be infectious and can spread the virus to others."
This is much stronger than what where it links to, the May "no mask" guidance, pre-Delta. It means in areas where Delta reigns and goes unchecked, the vaccinated are actually transmitting more easily than when the vaccines first were tested. An endless loop.
Read 4 tweets

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