This could turn out to be one of the most important advances to counter Covid. Molnupiravir, a pill for 5 days (I'll nickname "M-pack") to markedly reduce hospitalization. Await details beyond press release, including safety statnews.com/2021/10/01/mer… by @matthewherper@statnews
Molnupiravir is a broad spectrum anti-viral that achieves "lethal mutagenesis" of #SARSCoV2. Unlike remdesivir, it's a pill, it's not repurposed, had solid data from a Phase 2 trial supporting potency + safety vs Covid nature.com/articles/s4159…@nature The mechanism of action 👇
The fact that the new clinical trial was stopped by the Data and Safety Monitoring Board early because of overwhelming efficacy, deeming it unethical to proceed, would be considered a Eureka moment in the fight against Covid
A few additional points
—Entry criteria mild to moderate Covid
—8 deaths in the placebo group, 0 w/ M-pack
—Efficacy seen across multiple variants, including Delta
—I have a long history vs Merck (Vioxx) w/ a bias against this company (drug was made by Ridgeback Biotherapuetics)
Compare this with intravenous monoclonal antibodies in Phase 3 trial @NEJM this wk, a 71% reduction (4.6% vs 1.3%) hospitalization/death for outpatients w/ Covid < 7 days from symptom onset. nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
M-pack trial much higher risk patients: 14.3% in placebo group
It is outrageous that Merck is charging the government $700 per 5-pill pack of this drug. And that the US has not negotiated it down to a fair price. nytimes.com/2021/10/01/us/… by @RebeccaDRobbins
That companies continue to gouge in the midst of a pandemic is unconscionable
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Why are symptomatic post-vaccination covid infections, without hospitalization (H), important?
—they can be severe, on the brink of H
—they can result in #LongCovid
—they can transmit to others
—they were the primary endpoint of the vaccine clinical trials for efficacy
Inconvenient truth #1
The waning of vaccine effectiveness vs symptomatic infections for both Pfizer and Moderna across all age 20+ groups, presented at @CDCgov Advisory meeting last week cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/…
Inconvenient truth #2
Transmission among fully vaccinated health care workers, with some asymptomatic individuals with higher viral loads than those with symptoms papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
(not common, but it can occur)
The waning of Pfizer and Moderna vaccine protection vs *symptomatic infections* over time in all age groups, slide presented at ACIP @CDCgov meeting by Sara Oliver MD cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/…
(this was the primary endpoint for the pivotal trials to approve these vaccines)
Red=Delta (Green=pre-Delta)
It's still early into the period of waning, w/ frequency of exposures increasing over time.
Recall the UK (and other countries) decision to provide 3rd shots irrespective of vaccine to all age 50+ is at odds with FDA/CDC (Pfizer only, age 65+)
Meanwhile we have left the people who got a J&J vaccine stranded with comparatively very low antibody levels 2-6 weeks after dosing, while we've learned such levels are tied to protection cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
I think that's now ill-considered.
New reports @NEJM today support higher vaccine effectiveness (VE) of Moderna over Pfizer, with both providing strong level of protection 1. vs Symptomatic infection in health care personnel 96.3 vs 88.8% (see Table for 95% CI, slight overlap) nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
2. ~6-Month Follow-Up of Moderna pivotal trial nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
VE 98.2% vs severe disease (here VE = vaccine efficacy, with a placebo control)
Difference between protection, VE for symptomatic infections during extended follow-up of Pfizer and Moderna
Pfizer data nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
New large dataset of US Medicare (age 65+) population subgroup: 2.7 million Pfizer; 2.9 million Moderna vaccinated, w/ ~30,000 breakthrough hospitalizations, via claims 🧵main findings @Humetrixhumetrix.com/powerpoint-vac…
1. Definite waning of protection vs hospitalization for those 5-6 months out from vaccination (odd ratio 2.5X at 6 months)
2. No significant difference of waning for Pfizer vs Moderna for protection from breakthrough infections
Delta can be daunting to contain.
The situation in Singapore with over 1,000 new cases today and yesterday, 80% of total population fully vaccinated, 1 of top 3 countries in the world, is an important indicator of the challenge.
Singapore’s booster campaign for people over the age of 60 began Tuesday, 14 September
A @CellCellPress commentary yesterday entitled "Keeping Pace with the #SARSCoV2 Variants" states
"The evidence so far suggests that effectiveness against hospitalizations and symptomatic illness is highly preserved against Delta" cell.com/cell/fulltext/…
I'm calling it out. /1
For several weeks dating back to July, we have seen protection of vaccination for symptomatic infections drop down from >90% to <40% in Israel which was refuted, attributed to poor analysis, Simpson's paradox, and many other objections to @IsraelMOH reports /2
Those reports were since corroborated by others including @KPSCalResearch, @PHE_uk. Qatar and many other. But they were ignored and denied. /3