Thread by @ResearchQf

1) % of $XAU stocks > their 200D MAs has been 0% 10D in a row (went to 3% for 2D after this tweet). $GDX $GDXJ

So 10D MA of % of XAU stocks > 200D MA is also 0%.

Here are the days since '02 when this first occurred ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities

https://twitter.com/ResearchQf/status/1439997787056320512

2) (or came very very close).

9/17/18 (0% 10D MA)
8/5/15 (1%)
11/10/14 (0%)
3/5/13 (0%)
5/16/12 (0%)
10/29/08 (0%)
5/24/05 (2%)
5/18/04 (0%)

Every date not far from a major IT or LT low with that BIG exception in '13 (see posts about '13 last 6M).

10D stayed at 0% in '13 ...

3) for 5M and XAU fell 36% more before an IT low.

Besides '13 the low was usually a few days before these dates.

Different info in 10D charts. Fidelity is lost. E.g. Mar '20 doesn't show as selloff was so sharp.

Doesn't hurt GDXJ up > 1% while GLD down > 0.4% today. That's ...

4) happened twice since volatility last spring (used to be more common). The 2 days were 8/12/20 and 10/29/20, which led to ST bounces.

So maybe a ST tailwind + strong LT tailwind?

For the 20th time, this isn't 2013. Even more to discuss regarding '13 but another time.

5) Worth mentioning that cost of $GLD puts vs calls 20D MA is highest in years right now (and higher than in early Apr and Jul after bigger $gold selloffs).

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GDX #Commodities

https://twitter.com/ResearchQf/status/1443228771075575813

6) E.g. in early Apr.

A single indicator is never perfect. Just risk/reward but adds to the IT/LT lean.

https://twitter.com/ResearchQf/status/1379176473496522754

7) $GDXJ up > 0.5% but $GLD down > 0.5% (slightly different conditions vs 3).

Occurred just once since volatility last spring! 11/27/20. I remember the day.

Again more common before Apr '20. ST/IT risk/reward was positive. Btw risk/reward = ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities

8) risk/reward. Not certainty.

Cost of GLD puts vs calls 20D MA hit another multi-Y high today. Again higher than early Apr/Jul despite a shallower gold correction.

Yes NFP tomorrow can cause noise but these ST tailwinds and stronger LT tailwinds from 1) etc might be lasting.