<thread> Lithium prices.

In 2019 I was asked whether lithium prices in the next price surge would ever reach the highs of 2016.

My response was this time it would be more aggressive. Instead of the late 20s, prices in China would exceed $40,000/t

There are a few reasons…
This time there are more buyers than in 2016.

There are still not enough sellers: miners, refiners.

Demand for lithium is outstripping the rate supply is growing by double.

The wall of EV demand for lithium continued to build, esp 2026 and beyond.
Right now the lithium industry is responding in real time, in many ways, and isn’t addressing a massive demand issue that we face towards the latter end of the decade.

For this massive investment would be needed or DLE breakthroughs to help close the supply demand gap.
Lithium carbonate price today in China is $28k tonne high end, mid point $24k

This is the top end of what we experienced 4/5 years ago and there’s a long way to go before this price surge runs out of steam … i dont feel we are even half way thru yet
These comments are my feelings but our world class team at @benchmarkmin collect lithium price data to strict methodologies every month

Our forecasting division reevaluates EV supply chain each quarter.

Learn more about our Lithium prices: benchmarkminerals.com/lithium-prices/

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More from @sdmoores

5 Oct 20
<Tesla and Lithium >

5 @benchmarkmin Charts you need to know about Tesla and it’s lithium hydroxide production / spodumene plans.

1. Tesla is now official upstream of the lithium ion battery supply chain

✅ New cathode plant
✅ New Lithium Hydroxide plant
2. Lithium chemical refining is going global, not just in China

Production of lithium from spodumene has traditionally been the reserve of China.

Lithium chemical plants are now being established outside of China incl 🇦🇺 🇯🇵 🇰🇷 and now 🇺🇸 (Tesla)
3. More control over spodumene (lithium feedstock) prices

In the last lithium price surge, spodumene rose to above $900/tonne (@benchmarkmin prices).

Today it’s less than half.

Tesla will now buy spodumene directly for their own use.
Read 7 tweets
3 Oct 20
<thread> My third testimony to the US Senate, June 2020: key points

China is building the equivalent of one battery megafactory a week, the United States one every four months.
In that time, we have witnessed a global battery arms race and watched the world’s number of supersized battery plants – known as battery megafactories or gigafactories – go from 17 to 142 [now 167]
Lithium ion batteries are a core platform technology for the 21st century.

They allow our energy to be stored on a widespread basis in electric vehicles and energy storage systems, and they spark the demand for the critical raw materials and chemicals.
Read 11 tweets
1 Oct 20
[@benchmarkmin thread] Pertinent points on Tesla’s plan for produce lithium, the first auto maker to do so....
New lithium hydroxide facility expect to be co-located next to Terafactory in Austin
Tesla will build the USA’s first battery materials hub which in addition to lithium is expected to include cathode and nickel chemical production feeding into 4680 battery cell production
Read 7 tweets
30 Sep 20
Tesla LFP Model 3 (Standard Range) Made in China are rolling off Shanghai now.

LFP is naturally cobalt free anyway: balancing low cost (using iron and phosphate) with range is key here... it’s not about cobalt

Read Tesla’s strategy: benchmarkminerals.com/membership/lfp…
These LFP prismatic cells for Model 3 are the CATL deal @elonmusk was referring to on Battery Day
The long range Made in China Model 3 uses the LG Chem 2170s 811 chemistry - the other contract Elon was referring to.
Read 5 tweets
28 Sep 20
Finally ⁦@PiedmontLithium⁩ deal to supply @Tesla spodumene ore (once in production in North Carolina) is allowed to be released.

No idea why ASX delayed this.

Should give a clearer intention to Tesla’s lithium plans. More from @Benchmarkmin finance.yahoo.com/news/australia…
Note for Tesla’s followers new to lithium this is spodumene not clay
This Tesla / lithium news should also be more positive news for producers of spodumene in Australia.

Tesla’s spodumene direction means

1/ they will need to source from Australia as a min to meet 2022 deadlines

2/ for additional longer term volume to Piedmont
Read 6 tweets
27 Sep 20
To add some context: we think Tesla will *not* get into mining, especially lithium. When @elonmusk mentions high nickel, he will be referring to the precursor to the cathode step not digging it out of the ground. Watch for more news on lithium of a similar ilk.
Investors in nickel and lithium have been short sighted. The 2025 wall of demand has just got bigger. This is the warning shot but it will still require new mines and operators that won’t be Tesla.
@elonmusk will also know that it’s an order of magnitude harder to scale battery ready lithium than to build a super sized battery cell plant. #Gigafactory #Terafactory
Read 4 tweets

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