In 2019 I was asked whether lithium prices in the next price surge would ever reach the highs of 2016.
My response was this time it would be more aggressive. Instead of the late 20s, prices in China would exceed $40,000/t
There are a few reasons…
This time there are more buyers than in 2016.
There are still not enough sellers: miners, refiners.
Demand for lithium is outstripping the rate supply is growing by double.
The wall of EV demand for lithium continued to build, esp 2026 and beyond.
Right now the lithium industry is responding in real time, in many ways, and isn’t addressing a massive demand issue that we face towards the latter end of the decade.
For this massive investment would be needed or DLE breakthroughs to help close the supply demand gap.
Lithium carbonate price today in China is $28k tonne high end, mid point $24k
This is the top end of what we experienced 4/5 years ago and there’s a long way to go before this price surge runs out of steam … i dont feel we are even half way thru yet
These comments are my feelings but our world class team at @benchmarkmin collect lithium price data to strict methodologies every month
Our forecasting division reevaluates EV supply chain each quarter.
<thread> My third testimony to the US Senate, June 2020: key points
China is building the equivalent of one battery megafactory a week, the United States one every four months.
In that time, we have witnessed a global battery arms race and watched the world’s number of supersized battery plants – known as battery megafactories or gigafactories – go from 17 to 142 [now 167]
Lithium ion batteries are a core platform technology for the 21st century.
They allow our energy to be stored on a widespread basis in electric vehicles and energy storage systems, and they spark the demand for the critical raw materials and chemicals.
[@benchmarkmin thread] Pertinent points on Tesla’s plan for produce lithium, the first auto maker to do so....
New lithium hydroxide facility expect to be co-located next to Terafactory in Austin
Tesla will build the USA’s first battery materials hub which in addition to lithium is expected to include cathode and nickel chemical production feeding into 4680 battery cell production
To add some context: we think Tesla will *not* get into mining, especially lithium. When @elonmusk mentions high nickel, he will be referring to the precursor to the cathode step not digging it out of the ground. Watch for more news on lithium of a similar ilk.
Investors in nickel and lithium have been short sighted. The 2025 wall of demand has just got bigger. This is the warning shot but it will still require new mines and operators that won’t be Tesla.
@elonmusk will also know that it’s an order of magnitude harder to scale battery ready lithium than to build a super sized battery cell plant. #Gigafactory#Terafactory