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Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
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7 Oct, 7 tweets, 3 min read
Waiting to hear back from @healthgovau media about Commonwealth hotspots expiring last night for 38 LGAs in VIC

Seems they're going to let the hotspots lapse in VIC, NSW, ACT

Here's a look at the very diff circumstances in each state

#covid19aus #covidvic #covid19nsw
1. VIC

Current hotspot declaration: 5 Aug - 7 Oct
Cases: 1,322 daily in Metro (7-day avg)
Vax: 55.6% 2 dose

*Shading = days covered by Commonwealth hotspots declaration
2. NSW

Current hotspot declaration: 26 Jun - 11 Oct
Cases: 584 daily in Greater Sydney (7-day avg)
Vax: 70.3% 2 doses
3. ACT

Current hotspot declaration: 12 Aug- 15 Oct
Cases: 37 daily (7-day avg)
Vax: 69.9% 2 doses
I also looked at total length of time each LGA has been designated a hotspot (since Dec 2020)

1. Northern Beaches, NSW - 133 days
2. Various NSW Metro - 110 days
3. Other NSW Metro - 107 days
4. Various VIC Metro - 94 days
5. Various regional NSW- 82 days
Details here: covid19data.com.au/commonwealth-h…
Update: VIC's hotspot status extended by a week
health.gov.au/news/hotspot-f…

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Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
7 Oct
🧭 NSW LGA dataset updated today after yday was skipped

NSW as 3 different outbreaks - I've made a change to this summary based on feedback (ty @k_eagar)

Central Coast / Illawarra Shoalhaven moved from Greater Sydney to regional NSW. This means ...

#covid19nsw #covid19aus
The perspective on growth in Greater Syd changes - growth in last 2 weeks has slowed nearly as much as it has in SW/W

🧭 SW/W: +259 = 5782 (-48%)🥳
🧭 Rest of Greater Syd: +87 = 2158 (-45%)🥳
🧭 Regional NSW: +183 = 3073 (+74%)🤨

*+Cases today = 14-day sum (14-day change %)
🧭Regional NSW is the exception, so details on that first -

📍 Central Coast: +20 = 428 (+29%)🤨

📍 Illawarra Shoalhaven: +55=993 (+49%)🤨
Kiama: +0 = 6 (-73%)
Shellharbour: +5 = 167 (-9%)
Shoalhaven: +9 = 116 (142%)
Wollongong: +41 = 704 (70%)
Read 19 tweets
Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
6 Oct
🧭VIC LGA monster wrap 🤖

Cases in last 14 days V. previous 14 days

1. North / West Metro: +94% (but growth slowing)
2. Rest of Metro: +344% (growth stable)
3. Regional VIC: +489% (growth speeding up)

covid19data.com.au/victoria-lgas-…
#CovidVic #covid19vic #COVID19Aus
1/14. Chart: Hume Image
Region summary -

📍 Inner North / West: +194=2481 (82%)
📍 Outer North / West: +655=8067 (99%)
📍 Inner Melbourne: +85=945 (234%)
📍 Rest of Inner Metro : +145=1184 (329%)
📍 Rest of Outer Metro Melbourne: +256=2140 (432%)

[+Cases today=Cases last 14 days (14-day change %)]
2/
📍 Barwon South West: +10=129 (396%)
📍 Grampians: +20=85 (158%)
📍 Gippsland: +13=123 (2360%)
📍 Hume: +27=224 (600%)
📍 Loddon Mallee: +10=75 (0%)

3/
Read 14 tweets
Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
28 Sep
NSW LGA monster wrap 👻

NSW as 3 different outbreaks - How do cases in the last 14 days compare with previous 14 days?

1. Southwest/Western Sydney: -34%
2. Rest of Greater Sydney: +14%
3. Regional NSW: +48%

LGA details below 👇

#covid19nsw #covid19aus
1. SW/W ...

📍 Western Sydney: +189=3826 (-39%) 🥳

Blacktown: +56 = 1450 (-26%)
Cumberland: +64 = 1389 (-51%)
Parramatta: +22 = 377 (-38%)
Penrith: +47 = 610 (-30%)

*How to read the data: +Cases today = Last 14 days (14-day change %)
📍 Southwest Sydney: +244=5184 (-29%) 🥳

Camden: +8 = 287 (10%)
Campbelltown: +45 = 607 (-1%)
Canterbury-Bankstown: +101 = 2184 (-39%)
Fairfield: +34 = 776 (-30%)
Liverpool: +56 = 1330 (-25%)
Read 18 tweets
Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
27 Sep
Re: Testing positivity rates in NSW / VIC / ACT

Testing in NSW is falling - but so is the positivity rate

3 weeks ago, NSW was testing ~130,000 ppl/day. Positivity reached 1.1%

Today, NSW testing just under 120,000 / day.* Positivity: 0.83%

#covid19aus #covid19nsw #COVID19Vic Image
*I calculate the positivity rate by:
% = 7-day avg tests / 7-day avg cases

I think this smoothed rate is slightly more reliable than a daily rate

It shows the trend and eliminates factors like daily volatility, weekend effect, possibly mismatched numerators/denominators
The downside of this smoothed rate is it can be slow to show what's happening

But IMO, that's more of a concern when the positivity rate is rising, rather than falling

Here, the grey line shows the positivity rate in ACT (now 0.7%) Image
Read 7 tweets
Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
26 Sep
NSW LGA monster wrap👻

NSW as 3 different outbreaks: How do cases in the last 14 days compare with previous 14 days?

1. SW/W: -29% (daily cases shrinking)
2. Rest of Greater Syd: +25% (daily cases growing)
3. Regional NSW: +24% (daily cases growing)

#covid19nsw #covid19aus
Where daily cases are growing, is growth getting faster or slower?

Rest of Greater Sydney: Slower

14-day % change over the last week ...
+101%
+94%
+81%
+70%
+59%
+47%
+36%
+25%
Regional NSW: Faster

14-day % change over the last week ...
+2%
-3%
+2%
+2%
+4%
+14%
+18%
+24%
Read 17 tweets
Juliette O'Brien Profile picture
25 Sep
🔵 VIC LGA monster 👻 wrap

Looking at VIC as 3 different outbreaks -

North/West: +679=6497 (🔺164%)
Rest of metro: +121=1090 (🔺237%)
Regional VIC: +29=163 (🔺87%)

Data key:
+ Cases today = 14-day sum (14-day change %)

covid19data.com.au/victoria-lgas-…

#covid19vic #covid19aus
📍 North/West

Brimbank: +56=354 (105%) 👀
Darebin: +29=241 (39%)
Hobsons Bay: +11=195 (-11%) 👍
Hume: +337=2839 (40%) 👀
Maribyrnong: +2=48 (29%)
Melton: +44=300 (75%)
Moonee Valley: +18=187 (43%)
Moreland: +49=762 (-12%) 👍
Whittlesea: +74=783 (54%)
Wyndham: +32=580 (16%)
📍 Rest of Metro

Banyule:+12=126 (150%) 👀
Bayside:+4=22 (114%)
Boroondara:+4=20 (200%)
Casey:+27=208 (93%) 👀
Cardinia:+6=93 (265%)
Frankston:+7=24 (600%)
Glen Eira:+0=45 (50%)
Greater Dandenong:+10=101 (35%)
Kingston:+4=39 (357%)
Knox:+4=37 (417%)
Latrobe:+3=4 (200%)
Read 7 tweets

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