Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #covid19vic

Most recents (24)

🧭 VIC LGA Monster wrap 👻(New!)

📍 1. VIC as 3 outbreaks - overview

📈 14-day change
North / West Melb: +215%
Rest of Metro: +247%
Regional: +31%

🤧 Cases (Today = Last 14 days)
North / West Melb: +606=5,946
Rest of Metro: +114=905
Regional: +19=126

#covid19vic #covid19aus
📍 2. North / West Melbourne - LGAs

📈 14-day change

Brimbank: 88%
Casey: 98%
Darebin: 20%
Hobsons Bay: -16%
Hume: 38%
Maribyrnong: 9%
Melton: 35%
Moonee Valley: 9%
Moreland: -14%
Whittlesea: 56%
Wyndham: 44%
🤧 Cases (+Net today = Last 14 days)

Brimbank: +45=294
Casey: +22=164
Darebin: +22=216
Hobsons Bay: +11=199
Hume: +260=2525 👈
Maribyrnong: +5=46
Melton: +29=249
Moonee Valley: +20=155
Moreland: +68=810
Whittlesea: +74=713
Wyndham: +50=575
Read 12 tweets
🧭Late-night NSW LGA monster wrap is back!👻

This one is proper late ... by 2 weeks!

To the loyal monster wrappers, pls forgive me 😭

It desperately needed improvements and automations (it was really manual)

Here's how it's improved ...

#covid19aus #COVID19Vic #COVID19nsw
1. I now think of NSW and VIC as 3 separate outbreaks each, so the wrap is built around that breakdown:

- High-growth regions / corridors
- Rest of metro
- Regional

Note, this means some of the 'LGAs of concern' have been separated into diff regions (e.g. Burwood > inner west)
2. 14-day change now included (%). I.e. the last 14 days compared with the previous (yes, small numbers might mean big % changes but still useful. Also, 0 cases in previous 14 days mean % change isn't possible. In this situation, there is a 👇 to see new cases below)
Read 26 tweets
The model from @TonyBlakely_PI of the Population Interventions Unit, released yesterday, comes to some surprising conclusions, for example that Stage 4 lockdowns would continue to be necessary even if 95% 16+ are vaccinated.

Thread
1/🧵
#COVID19Vic
…ninterventions.science.unimelb.edu.au/pandemic-trade…
I’ve attempted to summarize the differences between the model released yesterday by Melbourne Uni’s Population Interventions Unit (PIU) and the modelling by the Doherty Institute for the National Plan.

2/🧵
PIU provide a very nice web interface that allows the user to explore the effect of different scenarios on the model outcomes. I encourage you to have a look!

…ninterventions.science.unimelb.edu.au/pandemic-trade…

3/🧵
Read 26 tweets
Today we’ll look around the world at countries which have had success at suppressing covid, the delta strain in particular, and see what lessons there might be for Australia.

Thread.
1/🧵

#COVID19Vic #roadmap #CovidVictoria #COVID19nsw
This thread follows two previous threads on why the UK, and Israel/Alberta, are poor parallels to Australia’s covid situation.

2/🧵
Thread on Israel and Alberta is here.

3/🧵
Read 33 tweets
Some more perspective on the mind-boggling modeling from @BurnetInstitute.

*No country* which has achieved 64% vax of total pop. (equivalent to 80% of 16+) has seen 110 deaths/million population in one month (predicted for VIC in January.

#COVID19Vic
premier.vic.gov.au/sites/default/…
1/
Many countries with high vax, low infection-acquired immunity, and nearly zero restrictions have death rates more than 10X lower (Finland, Norway, Denmark).

Hard to understand why VIC covid deaths should exceed those in other low-covid countries by >10X.

2/
Burnet Institute predicts VIC will see 11,600 cases/M and 110 deaths/M (deaths 0.93% of cases!) in Jan 2022.

Last month (19 Aug-18 Sep):

UK started at 65% total pop vaxxed, had 14,851 *reported* cases/M and 55.5 deaths/M (deadliest mo. of delta; deaths 0.37% of cases).

3/
Read 5 tweets
VIC R_eff as of September 6th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.92 ± 0.21

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic
VIC R_eff as of September 6th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.92 ± 0.21

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic
Expected numbers if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Tue: 328 233—430
Wed: 386 255—531
Thu: 452 277—659
Fri: 527 301—811
Sat: 619 323—992
Sun: 721 345—1220
Mon: 838 369—1487

Doubling time is 5.5 days.

#COVID19Vic
Read 4 tweets
VIC R_eff as of September 5th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.89 ± 0.22

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic
VIC R_eff as of September 5th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.89 ± 0.22

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic
Expected numbers if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Mon: 281 192—378
Tue: 329 207—466
Wed: 384 221—573
Thu: 447 237—704
Fri: 520 251—864
Sat: 603 265—1054
Sun: 697 279—1285

Doubling time is 5.5 days.

#COVID19Vic
Read 5 tweets
VIC R_eff as of September 4th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.07 ± 0.29

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic ImageImage
VIC R_eff as of September 4th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.07 ± 0.29

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic ImageImage
Expected numbers if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Sun: 285 178—399
Mon: 344 192—515
Tue: 413 208—661
Wed: 497 222—850
Thu: 596 232—1082
Fri: 713 237—1378
Sat: 852 248—1758

Doubling time is 4.7 days.

#COVID19Vic
Read 4 tweets
1/ The LNP have hijacked the conversation regarding The National Plan to Transition Australia’s COVID19 Response. I wanted to keep track of the propaganda & myths surrounding it.

#covid19nsw
#covid19vic
#covid19aus Image
2/ MYTH: “The plan says that we must lift all lockdowns at 70% (phase b)”.

TRUTH: The plan includes the possibility of lockdowns at both 70% & 80% (phases b & c).
3/ MYTH: “The plan states that all border closures must cease at 70% (phase b).”
Read 11 tweets
Comparisons between current outbreaks in NSW and VIC - by request

1. Outbreak sum
2. Daily cases
3. Unlinked cases
4. Wilds

Note - VIC's July / Aug outbreaks separated into Delta 1 (pink) and Delta 2 (purple)

1. Outbreak sum -

#covidvic #covid19vic #covid19aus
1/7
Note re starting points -
Above = index case
All charts below = 10 local cases in one day

2. Daily cases -

2/7
3. Unlinked cases ('mystery' cases allocated unknown source + cases under investigation) -

3/7
Read 10 tweets
🧵VIC - Outbreak progression
#COVID19Vic

It can be easy to treat the current outbreak in VIC as a single cluster, and compare it to how we expect others to progress. A simple chart like this tells a concerning story of growth:

This thread shows why this outbreak is different 🔽
Transmission is driven by "wild" cases - cases found that were out in the community during some or all of their infectious period. So let's take a look at case isolation status over the outbreak.

It looked like it was going well until the 20th August - what happened?
The answer - new clusters were found (MyCenter child care and Shepparton). And just like at the beginning of the outbreak, there was an initial large jump in cases, and new related cases were not isolating. The Wyndham cluster was also later found.
Read 7 tweets
🔗VIC dataset review - linked and unlinked
27th August 2021
#COVID19Vic

- 11 prior cases linked
- 8 UI cases moved to unknown source
- 16 new under investigation cases
- 1 case removed from dataset

Currently:
44 - "Under investigation" (🔻3)
17 - "Unknown source" (🔺8)
11 Linked cases:
🔗Manningham, 19th
🔗Maribyrnong, 21st
🔗Melbourne, 21st
🔗Boroondara, 22nd
🔗Greater Geelong, 22nd
🔗Melbourne, 23rd
🔗Whittlesea, 23rd
🔗Hobsons Bay, 24th
🔗Hume, 24th
🔗Hume, 25th
🔗Wyndham, 25th
8 under investigation case moved to unknown source:
🔴Moonee Valley, 18th
🔴Unknown LGA, 19th
🔴Wyndham, 19th
🔴Greater Dandenong, 20th
🔴Hobsons Bay, 20th
🔴Melbourne, 20th
🔴Melton, 20th
🔴Greater Shepparton, 21st
Read 5 tweets
📊VIC - Active clusters
27th August 2021
#COVID19Vic

New cases: 79
Recoveries: 19
Total active cases: 660🔺60
Total active clusters: 55🔻1

Cluster status:
🟢Cases recovering
🔵No change
🟠Cases increasing

Clusters with <5 cases are grouped into "All Other"
7 new clusters:
🟠Woolworths Millers Junction Altona North (7)
🟠Borgcraft Pty Ltd Altona (2)
🟠Electrical Service Williamstown North (2)
🟠3048 Wharparilla Lodge Echuca Tier 1B (1)
🟠Greater Shepparton Secondary College Mooroopna Campus (1)
New clusters (cont):
🟠Monash Medical Centre Emergency Department Clayton Clinic Waiting Room (1)
🟠Western Health Footscray Hospital Emergency Department Tier 1B (1)
Read 5 tweets
🔗VIC dataset review - linked and unlinked
26th August 2021
#COVID19Vic

• 12 prior cases linked *
• 1 under investigation case moved to unknown source
• 13 new under investigation cases

Currently:
47 - "Under investigation" (🔺1)
9 - "Unknown source" (➖)
Linked cases:

10th August:
- Melton^

18th August:
- Moreland

21st August:
- Boroondara
- Greater Shepparton (2)
- Hobsons Bay
- Hume
- Port Phillip

22nd August:
- Melbourne
- Wyndham

23rd August:
- Melbourne*
- Monash

* Also removed from dataset
^ Unknown source
Under investigation case moved to unknown source:
- Cardinia (19th)

13 new under investigation cases, in the following LGAs:
- Brimbank
- Hume (2)
- Maribyrnong
- Maroondah (2)
- Melton
- Port Phillip
- Wyndham (4)
- Yarra
Read 4 tweets
🔗VIC dataset review - linked and unlinked
25th August 2021
#COVID19Vic

• 10 prior under investigation cases linked *
• 0 under investigation cases moved to unknown source
• 9 new under investigation

Currently:
46 - "Under investigation" (🔻1)
9 - "Unknown source" (➖)
Linked prior under investigation cases:

20th August:
- Greater Shepparton

22nd August:
- Greater Shepparton
- Wyndham (2)

23rd August:
- Greater Shepparton (3)
- Mansfield
- Moreland *
- Unknown LGA *

* These cases also removed from the dataset
9 new under investigation cases, in the following LGAs:
- Hobsons Bay (2)
- Hume
- Maribyrnong
- Melton
- Monash (2)
- Moonee Valley
- Moreland
Read 4 tweets
Lockdowns are such a tough time for younger ones, particularly teens. Many of you are reaching out for ideas on HOW to best support adolescents over the coming weeks. Here are some ideas, put together with the LEGENDS from @RCHMelbourne & @CforAH. I hope this helps: 🙏 (Thread)
1) Acknowledge their experience, validate their feelings and recognise their personal strengths. Try to see things from their perspective. It’s okay to feel frustrated, sad or disappointed about missing an important celebration or not seeing friends. #covid19vic
2) Worry about the future is understandable. This is a tough time and everyone will experience it and react differently. Your teen will also have unique strengths. How have they displayed resilience in tough times in the past?
Read 12 tweets
Adult population of Australia is ~20million.
80% of adult popln is 16mil. That leaves 4MILLION not protected.
Plus 5MILLION kids. who catch, spread, become ill
That leaves 9MILLION people vulnerable to infection.
Delta moves fast. It leads to more hospitalisation..and deaths. 1/
Conservatively, if 10% require hospitalisation, and 1% result in death, we are looking at:
900,000 hospitalisations
90,000 deaths

This is unfathomable horror.
This suppression + vax strategy so-we-don't-overwhlem-the-health-system doesn't hold water 2/
It never really did..
but while we are saying ah well, we'll slow it down so our health system doesn't collapse (even though there are no reserves even pre-Covid) is not good enough.

At the same time healthcare 'heroes' aren't protected. They are put in harm's way 3/
Read 20 tweets
Thought I’d be helpful and write up a little COVID digest with all the new policies coming through each day (Source: summary for Health Care Workers)
🦠
🦠
🦠
🧵
⬇️
Use the @threadreaderapp to read in one place!
#COVID19 #COVID19Vic #COVID19ACT #covidnsw #GladysFail
1. Lockdown extended for Greater Sydney until September, gotta wear masks outdoors in all of NSW, curfews and exercise limits for hotspot LGAs, and a permit system
2. *NSW* 📈
🚨644 new cases
🟠 71 infectious in the community
🕵️‍♀️506 cases still being investigated
2️⃣ cases infected in the ACT and are isolating in NSW
⚰️Sadly, 4 deaths - 3 in their 80s, 1 in their 70s.
470 people in 🏥
80 people in ICU
27 requiring ventilation🌬
Read 23 tweets
A thread: A PSA for people to actually show more mutual understanding and NOT jump to pass immediate judgement on other people - without further clarification or information. This is regarding the public "policing" covid compliance. #COVID19Vic #auspol #melbourne #COVID19nsw
I went to the Yarraville Woolworths Metro, and just before I entered the door I realised I left my telephone at home (Which is very rare). Meaning I couldn't scan the QR code at the entrance - and required to approach a staff member for manual checkin.
As I'm walking in a mature aged (mid 60's) anglo saxon guy, who is also entering at the same time - sees me enter and immediately starts accosting me at the entrance exclaiming "why havn't you checked in". I reply "I left my phone at home"....
Read 15 tweets
🗺VIC COVID-19 Map
Coolaroo, Maribyrnong Clusters (Final)
13th July - 5th August 2021
#COVID19vic
✳Age breakdown of cases in these clusters:

- Includes overseas acquired cases during this time period
✳Case onwards transmission

- Excludes 6 cases where the link is unknown
Read 5 tweets
🔵🐦 VIC Wild cases -

(This figure not very telling today. See Raf's tweet below - Day 13 results mean pre-isolation infectious period goes back > 2 weeks ago)

🐦 Wild: 13
🏠 Iso: 44

#covidvic #covid19vic #covid19aus

Daily Wilds -
Daily trend (7-days) -
14-day sum -
Read 4 tweets
We know that it's great to lock down HARD and FAST.

But WHAT IF there are delays identifying infections?

A single (undetected) case of Delta can be dozens in days!

This is why ongoing testing rates matter.

1/11

#covid19aus #covid19nsw #covid19vic #Qldlockdown #covid19qld Image
Low ongoing COVID testing rates would seem to be partially to blame for the spread in SE Queensland - where contact tracers are urgently tracing an outbreak detected at the 2500-person Indooroopilly State High School site.

brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queen…

2/11 Image
We've all heard the "Hotel Quarantine is 99.9% effective" statistic. However, that includes both health and sick travelers.

A more realistic number is 1 in 44 cases escape (as you'll see in @migga's data here: )

That's why testing matters right now.

3/11
Read 10 tweets
Thread
1/Trying to figure this out #COVID19Vic #COVID19nsw

Aust. (25.5 mil)
2017 - 161,000 dths
2018 - 158,000
2019 -169,000
2020 - 141,000*

In Sweden (10 mil)
14,000 Covid dths (over 18 mths)(min. restrictions)

14,000 x 2.55 = 35,700 Aus dths (min. restrictions 18 mths) ImageImage
2/
35,700/3 = 11,900 (6 months)

11,900 x 2 = 23,800 (12 months)

23,800+141,000 = 165,200 est deaths in Aus in 2020 (3,800 less than 2019)

By following our 2019 Pandemic Plan (see: Sweden restrictions)

(Hint: search for lockdown)

www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/…
3/
Even applying the 18 month death rate (in case we did worse than the Swedes, as impossible as it sounds) we end up with 176,700 deaths in Aus for 2020 (less of an increase than what occurred in 2018-2019.)
Read 7 tweets
1/ Some thoughts on Vic outbreak handling & why Vic's current outbreak won't lead to a 3rd wave....
🔹️3 ring contact tracing
🔹️Clear & simple restrictions
🔹️Authorised Provider & Authorised Worker list
🔹️Vic Gov payment to stay home & not spread COVID-19
🔹️Mask rules
2/ 🔆 3 Ring Contact Tracing (1)
1. COVID-19 positive person isolated 14 days
2. Primary close contact of COVID-19 positive person quarantined 14
days
3. Close contact of P.2 - Secondary close contact. 14 days quarantine dependent on individual situation
3/ 🔆 3 Ring Contact Tracing (2)
🔸️Aim to stop chains of transmission
🔸️Ideally secondary contact test positive in quarantine, not in wild
🔸️Idea Vic got from Vietnam 👍 🇻🇳
🔸️Secondary contact may leave quarantine IF primary contact not in same house & has neg test day 3
Read 10 tweets

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