Thread by @BambroughKevin

Predicting a market crash is very tricky. Especially because everytime the market/economy starts down what looks to be a crash cycle, central bankers print trillions more than they did to prevent the last crash.

I believe this cycle commodity bull will see a melt up of epic proportions because market players will begin to focus on the inevitability of economic shocks being met with more and more trillions of spending. Especially infrastructure spreading to retool the economy

The ‘crash paths’ we will continually be heading down will be a result of blow out commodity prices and inflation as industries will struggle to pass on costs and the broader economy will face a cash crunch.

The problem of high gas, coal, oil etc today will be attacked with money creation tomorrow. China has already demanded banks pump money into coal production. But that’s short term for this winter and immediate needs. The real money and longer term is electric vehicle based

All majors car manufactures have announced plans to completely go EV for nearly their entire fleets over the next 15 years. The impact of this will require the electrical grid to double total power out put. This is a monumental change unlike anything we’ve seen in 100 years+

The materials required to go from burning gas and diesel in combustion engines to building car batteries, electric motors, and charging all those batteries at night is mind boggling. Seasoned resource experts no this won’t be achieved with out sky high metal prices

Nearly every strategic metal the EV world needs will likely double its all time history high this cycle. Eg copper to $10/lb. Commodities/resources will dramatically out perform the broader market over this decade. Massive change in fortunes coming

Each time the market breaks down because of supply disruptions or mini recessions due to energy prices/commodity price squeezes our central bankers will print and bail, while governments throw more money at the problem. But that new infrastructure money will push inflation higher

It takes commodities to make commodities. The resource industry has been battered and beaten for over a decade. Huge investment must be made in equipment and people to produce the materials the Electric power and vehicle industry requires.

Ports, rail, transmission lines, shipping etc all must be invested in and all will consume materials. I often end these threads with my number one impact theme bet. Nuclear power! The way I see it the electric vehicle switch is going to result in a huge baseload demand increase

It’s simply ridiculous to think that we are going to put in all this effort for electric vehicles and power them with coal. Coal is the dominant energy source today around 40% of world electricity.

It’s completely insane to think we double or even increase global power output 50% over 20 years with out a massive contribution from nuclear power. I think the effort will end up being 4x-6x increase in nuclear power. Today it’s ~11-12% of the grid.

Most seem to agree we should reduce not expand coal fired output. It’s simply impossible to meet the power needs of electric vehicles without a massive baseload power increase and the only meaningful way to achieve this is nuclear. I don’t give a shit what people in Germany want

I don’t care at all what some say the perception is there. Germany will be the laughing stock of the world if they shut down there nuclear plants and and increase coal and gas consumption. They will destroy there economy and their manufacturing base will be totally uncompetitive

It’s a mathematical certainty. They simply don’t have the ability to replace the nuclear plants they are currently planning to shut down.

The silent majority will soon be screaming all over the world when they look at their power bills. Screaming mad.

They will want solutions and to also punish those that caused them the financial pain that is coming. Politicians that are actually able and willing to do grade 7-8 math and properly assess the situation and go nuclear will be elected in. It will be bipartisan in the USA

The sentiment change and push to nuclear power has to be one of the most predictable events in the commodity world since the start of the industry revolution and the rise of the Oil Barron’s. It will now take its place as a future fuel and it’s simply amazing how cheap it is now

Current production is less than year consumption by the greatest margin ever. And also the largest supply demand balance of any commodity and it’s not even close. Buying physical uranium now is a steal. Barely any producer can produce it at this price.

If you factor in full cycle economics probably none can. (I’m taking from green field exploration, ex-drilling, feasibility, engineering, permitting, development, production, reclamation)

Uranium is cheap to store and Sprott Physical Uranium Trust is the safest/best $u.un $sruuf

I think it’s the most sure 4-5x over 2 years (or maybe 6months) that I’ve ever seen (any commodity or any stock in 25 years of investing)

As much as I’m loaded up as I write this I can’t help but feel I must own more. The risk to reward is simply unparalleled

FYI. Cameco shareholders should consider the fully cost of the assets they hold.

Imagine the cost and time to drill up Cigar and Mcarthur from scratch and fully develop the mine and processing facilities. It’s a sad travesty that they are willing to sign dog shit contracts

The are simply throwing away massive future profits with a bear market contracting policy that should get senior management fired. Activist shareholders should be demanding that they end there policy of giving 60-40 upside to utilities at these levels. It’s ridiculous

More than ridiculous… it’s incompetent and demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of the position of total strength they possess today. They should be more focused on obtaining material and building stock piles of uranium to cover the contracts they’ve already written

Anyhow… enough about that. It’s just shocking I can’t help but shake my head when I consider how much money they are tossing away needlessly.

If Germany shuts its nuclear power facilities it will need to prepare to shut down some of its manufacturing industry as well or place limits personal consumption. Not gonna happen