2/5 The first concept to grasp is that of Realized Value (RV), introduced by @nic__carter & @khannib in 2018
RV is the total value of all circulating coins at the last time they moved on-chain, therefore representing the estimated cost-base of all existing #bitcoin
3/5 Briefly after, @kenoshaking & @MustStopMurad divided the total #bitcoin Market Value (MV) by the RV, creating a groundbreaking metric called the MVRV Ratio
A pseudonym called Awe and Wonder then iterated upon it by standardizing it ((MV-RV)/MVsd), creating the MVRV Z-Score
4/5 Using the same method used to create the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) Bands before, the MVRV Z-Score can be mapped upon the #bitcoin price chart by calculating the RV+x*MVsd at every point in time, where x represents the z-score that you want to visualize
5/5 To summarize; the MVRV Bands represent the #bitcoin price at a certain number of standard deviations from its estimated cost basis
Due to the use of a standard deviation, the bands curl up during 🐂 runs, adopting more lenient price estimations during more volatile times
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2/17 Last year, @Glassnode learned that when an Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) is >155 days old, its has a relatively low probability of being spent
Based on this, they created Short-Term Holder (STH) and Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply metrics
3/17 If you divide @glassnode's LTH supply by the circulating #bitcoin supply, you get a LTH Supply Ratio that quantifies the portion of the supply that is estimated to belong to LTHs
LTHs tend to sell against market strength (🟥) and accumulate during market weakness (🟩)
2/22 Since mid-April, China came down hard on #Bitcoin, banning its institutions to offer #bitcoin services, censoring related search results and shutting down mining operations in recent weeks
Hash rate dropped ~50%, to levels not seen since briefly after last year's halving 🤕
3/22 A result of the hash rate drop is that #Bitcoin blocks are coming in much slower than the usual 10 minute block intervals
In fact; block creation slowed down to more than twice the intended interval & levels not seen in >11 years, illustrating the magnitude of this drop 🤯
1/25 @BitcoinMagazine just posted the first edition of a new monthly series titled 'Cycling On-Chain', in which on-chain and price-related data are used to estimate where in #Bitcoin's market cycle we are
2/25 Just like the periods after the 2012 and 2016 halvings, the 2020 #Bitcoin halving created a supply shock that triggered an exponential price increase
However, compared to the previous one, this cycle got heated much faster 🥵
3/25 When the #bitcoin price ran towards and beyond its previous (2017) all-time high at $20k, market participants increasingly started to secure profits
After the January local top, this profit-taking has been decreasing - despite price still grinding up until recently
1/7 Just published an article at @BitcoinMagazine that uses on-chain data visualizations to explain how #Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment mechanism works & how it relates to hash rate, block intervals, fees & the mempool
2/7 #Bitcoin reaches its 21 million hard cap by starting with a 50 BTC block subsidy and halving that each 210k blocks, until the block subsidy falls away after 33 halvings
#Bitcoin needs block intervals of ~10 min to ensure these halvings are spread out over ~4 years. But why?
3/7 If #Bitcoin had a fixed difficulty, it would have had an adoption threshold if it started high, or quickly run through its supply issuance schedule if it started low
Relatively stable block interval times are needed to spread out miner incentives & ensure stable throughput
1/9 About 9 hours ago, Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla would stop accepting #Bitcoin for payments out of environmental concerns, crashing price by -$8.7k (-16%) to just below $46k
2/9 First, there's the inconsistency:
- On April 22nd, Elon agreed with Jack that #Bitcoin incentivizes renewable energy
- On May 11th, his latest tweet before this was a poll where he asked if Tesla should accept $DOGE as a payment option; which is also a Proof-of-Work coin
3/9 Then there's also the inconsistency that Tesla is apparently still comfortable holding #Bitcoin
As pointed out by @yassineARK, its energy consumption is there to secure past transactions
Are they THAT unaware, or is something else going on? 🤔