1/7 Just published an article at @BitcoinMagazine that uses on-chain data visualizations to explain how #Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment mechanism works & how it relates to hash rate, block intervals, fees & the mempool
2/7 #Bitcoin reaches its 21 million hard cap by starting with a 50 BTC block subsidy and halving that each 210k blocks, until the block subsidy falls away after 33 halvings
#Bitcoin needs block intervals of ~10 min to ensure these halvings are spread out over ~4 years. But why?
3/7 If #Bitcoin had a fixed difficulty, it would have had an adoption threshold if it started high, or quickly run through its supply issuance schedule if it started low
Relatively stable block interval times are needed to spread out miner incentives & ensure stable throughput
4/7 This is achieved via a difficulty adjustment mechanism
When hash rate is high & block intervals short, #Bitcoin increases mining difficulty to slow down production
If hash rate is low & block intervals long, difficulty decreases, incentivizing miners to (re)join the network
5/7 When hash rate grows & blocks are coming in faster than planned, it is relatively easy to get a transaction included a block, easing transaction fee pressure
The opposite is true during a steep hash rate dip - until miners get bailed out by a downward difficulty adjustment
6/7 In #Bitcoin, it is also possible to see what transactions are in the waiting line to get included in a block (the mempool), and what fee they bid to jump the line
During hash rate dips, the waiting line gets more crowded & jumping the line gets more expensive
7/7 When the block subsidy runs out, transaction fees will become the primary source of miner revenue.
Developing a healthy block space market is essential for #Bitcoin's long-term existence. If you'd like to read more on that, check out this article:
1/9 About 9 hours ago, Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla would stop accepting #Bitcoin for payments out of environmental concerns, crashing price by -$8.7k (-16%) to just below $46k
2/9 First, there's the inconsistency:
- On April 22nd, Elon agreed with Jack that #Bitcoin incentivizes renewable energy
- On May 11th, his latest tweet before this was a poll where he asked if Tesla should accept $DOGE as a payment option; which is also a Proof-of-Work coin
3/9 Then there's also the inconsistency that Tesla is apparently still comfortable holding #Bitcoin
As pointed out by @yassineARK, its energy consumption is there to secure past transactions
Are they THAT unaware, or is something else going on? 🤔
1/6 During yesterday's mini-dip, I saw unrest in my feed & some people were pinging me if I was still bullish on #Bitcoin
To me this was nothing but another shake-out of weak hands and leverage, while nothing changed regarding the big picture 🤷♂️
A short 🧵 on (not) getting rekt
2/6 So, what happened?
Simple: as soon as #Bitcoin set a new local high and dipped a bit, there was a steep uptick in people aping in long on leverage again 🦍
As always, this is a recipe for getting rekt - which is exactly what happened a few hours later 🤦
3/6 Meanwhile, there were large stablecoin inflows to exchanges and large #bitcoin outflows from OTC desks - both signs that there is some serious dip buying going on
1/10 Recently, I became convinced that the #bitcoin price simply went up too fast and this consolidation is functioning as a re-accumulation phase
IMO the January local top was the turnaround point in the market structure 🏔️
I'll elaborate in this 🧵 with some on-chain data ⛓️
2/10 During the January local top, the #bitcoin price went up FAST 🥵
Compared to 2017, this run-up happened: 1) at an earlier post-halving date 2) at a faster acceleration, and 3) to a higher degree (reached a 🌡️ of 7 - which in 2017 it only reached during the blow-off top)
3/10 Due to the rapid price increase, unrealized profits were sky high, triggering an increasing number of entities to take profits
Since the January local top, profit-taking cooled down to pre-ATH levels - despite the #bitcoin price itself still grinding up 👀
1/7 Short 🧵 on the recent hash rate drop in #Bitcoin, its recovery and the impact of that on several on-chain metrics ⛓️
On April 16th, hash rate on #Bitcoin had a steep decline related to to a power outage in China, to which it is now recovering - it even approaches new ATH's
2/7 As a result of the hash rate drop, block interval times increased, which means that blocks were temporarily being produced at a (much) slower pace than the normal 10 blocks/min
As miners came back online & mining difficulty adjusted downwards, blocks are now coming in fast
3/7 Blocks coming in at a faster pace has done wonders for the mempool congestion & related transaction fees, making on-chain #Bitcoin transactions cheaper again
Over the past 24 hours, miners were even churning through the mempool transactions paying a 5 sat/vByte fee