Thread by @AllenAu11

The Pi Cycle Top indicator has been accurate in picking out #BTC's tops. If #BTC's cycle peak were to occur in Dec. 2021, would it work?

TLDR: No, unless BTC will perform way better than in past cycles from the mid-cycle correction low with a blow-off top >$500K in Dec. 2021.

1/ The Pi Cycle Top indicator has been accurate in picking the timing of #BTC's tops within +/- 3 days. It uses the 111-day simple moving average (111SMA) & the 350SMAx2 of BTC's price. When the 111SMA moves up and crosses the 350SMAx2, that is when BTC's price reaches a top.

2/ Assume #BTC will reach its cycle peak in December 2021, 3 past BTC price data sets scaled from the mid-cycle correction low are used to test if the Pi Cycle Top could pick out the peak in 2021.

a. 2013
b. 2017
b. Average of 2013 & 2017

3a/ A simulation is done with #BTC's prices from the 2013 mid-cycle correction low scaled to that of the 2021 mid-cycle correction low on 7/20/21.

Projected Cycle Peak: 12/18/2021
Peak Price: $530K
Pi Cycle Cross: 1/3/2022
Time Difference: 16 days late

3b/ A 2nd simulation is done with #BTC's prices from the 2017 mid-cycle correction low scaled to that of the 2021 mid-cycle correction low on 7/20/21.

Projected Cycle Peak: 12/20/2021
Peak Price: $300K
Pi Cycle Cross: Almost on 2/5/2022 ($950 diff.)
Time Difference: 47 days late

3c/ A 3rd simulation is done with #BTC's prices using the average of those of 3a & 3b.

Projected Cycle Peak: 12/18/2021
Peak Price: $390K
Pi Cycle Cross: 1/14/2022
Time Difference: 27 days late

4a/ In order for the Pi Cycle Top to have a 2nd cross to coincide with the cycle peak in December 2021, BTC has to be performed way better than past cycles.

Given current #BTC's price action is the average between the 2013 & 2017 bull phases, this seems a stretch.

4a/ Just for argument sake, #BTC is in a supercycle. Using the same 3 data sets for simulation, the Pi Cycle Top will cross exactly on the projected cycle peak dates in December 2021 if the scaled BTC prices were increased by:

2013: 40%
2017: 75%
Avg. 2013 & 2017: 60%

4c/ Some perspective on #BTC's cycle peak price if that were to happen:

2013: $740K
2017: $530K
Avg. 2013 & 2017: $630K

In all cases, BTC's price will have to be more than $100K now!

4d/ If a Pi Cycle Cross were to occur on 12/31/21, #BTC's price action is best to follow that of 2013 followed by the avg. between 2013 & 2017 (AVG).

Projected Peak: 12/18/21
Price Need to Increase By: 2% (2013); 20% (AVG)
Peak Price: $540K (2013); $470K (AVG)
Late: 13 days

4e/ In both cases, the Pi Cycle Top will still miss the projected peak by 13 days, but #BTC's prices seem more reasonable under the avg. 2013 & 2017 scenario.

Does that imply a lengthening cycle (LC)? If the Pi Cycle Top is 100% accurate, BTC may peak in early 2022, but no LC.

5/ Conclusion:
What I've shown is not to invalidate the Pi Cycle Top indicator or agree that there is a lengthening cycle.

What the simulations have shown is that the Pi Cycle Top will miss #BTC's cycle peak if it were to occur in Dec. 2021 unless BTC is in a supercycle now.