The Pi Cycle Top indicator has been accurate in picking out #BTC's tops. If #BTC's cycle peak were to occur in Dec. 2021, would it work?

TLDR: No, unless BTC will perform way better than in past cycles from the mid-cycle correction low with a blow-off top >$500K in Dec. 2021. Image
1/ The Pi Cycle Top indicator has been accurate in picking the timing of #BTC's tops within +/- 3 days. It uses the 111-day simple moving average (111SMA) & the 350SMAx2 of BTC's price. When the 111SMA moves up and crosses the 350SMAx2, that is when BTC's price reaches a top.
2/ Assume #BTC will reach its cycle peak in December 2021, 3 past BTC price data sets scaled from the mid-cycle correction low are used to test if the Pi Cycle Top could pick out the peak in 2021.

a. 2013
b. 2017
b. Average of 2013 & 2017
3a/ A simulation is done with #BTC's prices from the 2013 mid-cycle correction low scaled to that of the 2021 mid-cycle correction low on 7/20/21.

Projected Cycle Peak: 12/18/2021
Peak Price: $530K
Pi Cycle Cross: 1/3/2022
Time Difference: 16 days late Image
3b/ A 2nd simulation is done with #BTC's prices from the 2017 mid-cycle correction low scaled to that of the 2021 mid-cycle correction low on 7/20/21.

Projected Cycle Peak: 12/20/2021
Peak Price: $300K
Pi Cycle Cross: Almost on 2/5/2022 ($950 diff.)
Time Difference: 47 days late Image
3c/ A 3rd simulation is done with #BTC's prices using the average of those of 3a & 3b.

Projected Cycle Peak: 12/18/2021
Peak Price: $390K
Pi Cycle Cross: 1/14/2022
Time Difference: 27 days late Image
4a/ In order for the Pi Cycle Top to have a 2nd cross to coincide with the cycle peak in December 2021, BTC has to be performed way better than past cycles.

Given current #BTC's price action is the average between the 2013 & 2017 bull phases, this seems a stretch.
4a/ Just for argument sake, #BTC is in a supercycle. Using the same 3 data sets for simulation, the Pi Cycle Top will cross exactly on the projected cycle peak dates in December 2021 if the scaled BTC prices were increased by:

2013: 40%
2017: 75%
Avg. 2013 & 2017: 60%
4c/ Some perspective on #BTC's cycle peak price if that were to happen:

2013: $740K
2017: $530K
Avg. 2013 & 2017: $630K

In all cases, BTC's price will have to be more than $100K now!
4d/ If a Pi Cycle Cross were to occur on 12/31/21, #BTC's price action is best to follow that of 2013 followed by the avg. between 2013 & 2017 (AVG).

Projected Peak: 12/18/21
Price Need to Increase By: 2% (2013); 20% (AVG)
Peak Price: $540K (2013); $470K (AVG)
Late: 13 days
4e/ In both cases, the Pi Cycle Top will still miss the projected peak by 13 days, but #BTC's prices seem more reasonable under the avg. 2013 & 2017 scenario.

Does that imply a lengthening cycle (LC)? If the Pi Cycle Top is 100% accurate, BTC may peak in early 2022, but no LC.
5/ Conclusion:
What I've shown is not to invalidate the Pi Cycle Top indicator or agree that there is a lengthening cycle.

What the simulations have shown is that the Pi Cycle Top will miss #BTC's cycle peak if it were to occur in Dec. 2021 unless BTC is in a supercycle now.

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More from @AllenAu11

14 Oct
𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟰𝟬 '𝟮𝟭

Price Action Indicators (Fundamentals that affect BTC's price)

TLDR: 📈
1. Miner metrics- Bullish
2. Supply metrics- Bullish
3. Institution demand- Mod. Bullish
4. Network metrics- Bullish
𝟭. 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀
a(i) The hash rate for #BTC miners continues to recover after the China mining ban. This has caused a global reshuffle of BTC mining hash rate such that the US has now emerged as the global leader in BTC mining as per the latest report from CCAF. Image
1a(ii) Technically, the #BTC hash rate forms an ascending channel. It challenged the key resistance level at 177E, which is also near the top of the channel, but got rejected. It's since recovered & is again on a run to challenge the resistance. Bullish! Image
Read 15 tweets
13 Oct
𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟰𝟬 '𝟮𝟭

𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 (𝟭𝟭 this wk)

TLDR: BTC hasn't peaked or is in its bear phase.
The 30D MA metrics, RHODL, & NUPL indicate that BTC has exited #CTM Wave 1* low & onto Wave 2*.

*👇
𝟭 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗣𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗧𝗼𝗽 & 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗣𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺

𝟭𝗮. 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗖𝗮𝗽 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking the peak & the bottom tracker is based on #BTC's moving average price.

BTC has neither peaked nor is it in a bear phase.
𝟭𝗯. 𝗙𝗶𝗯 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.

BTC has neither peaked nor is it in a bear phase.
Read 15 tweets
11 Oct
I have built a simple model for tracking #BTC's cycle top & bottom. This is inspired by Philip Swift's Golden Ratio Multiplier, but I use Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples instead.

Top: Between 5.618 & 8.618 Fib Lines
Bottom: 0.382 Fib Line
Cycle top: $260K-$410K?
Notes:
1. The model is built simply using the 350D simple moving average (SMA) of #BTC's price. From this, we use Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of BTC's price to arrive at various lines, namely 0.382, 2.618, 3.618, 5.618, 8.618, 13.618.
2. In the original Golden Ratio Multiplier model, it is noted that each top of #BTC was hitting decreasing Fib sequence multiples of 350D SMA (21, 13, 8, 5, 3) so the current cycle peak should be in the range of 2x. Although this makes sense, I don't think this will happen. Why?
Read 10 tweets
9 Oct
If you've heard that current on-chain data are totally dissimilar to past cycles, you'd see for yourself.

If we look at the #BTC's 14-day Delta Gradient metric, we can find similar patterns in the bull phases of 2021 & 2013.

It's hard not to be bullish! Cycle Peak ~Dec 2021. Image
Notes:
1/
a. Market Gradient measures #BTC's market cap gradient

b. Realized Gradient measures BTC's realized cap gradient. Realized cap is the value of all BTC in circulation at the price they've last moved

c. Delta Gradient= Market Gradient - Realized Gradient
1d. 14-day #BTC Delta Gradient measures the difference between the 14-day Market Gradient & 14-day Realized Gradient.

If this metric is positive, the price of BTC is on an uptrend (bullish) & vice versa
Read 4 tweets
8 Oct
Why is $GBTC still trading at a discount? Would it trade back at a premium? Will we see a blow-off top for $GBTC as #BTC’s price goes parabolic?

TLDR: Long story. No, unless certain conditions prevail, but not this year. Yes, projected peak $GBTC price: $150-$240.
If you don't know much about $GBTC (Grayscale #Bitcoin Trust), you could read the following tweet about $GBTC as a quick refresher.

1/ Why is $GBTC trading at a discount?
$GBTC will be in discount when its price is trading lower than its #BTC holdings/share outstanding. Simply, investors are unwilling to buy $GBTC unless its value its lower relative to BTC.
Read 19 tweets
8 Oct
The following🧵is a refresher about the Grayscale #Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC) if you want background information about this closed-end BTC fund. Enjoy!

* +ve: Positive
-ve: Negative
NAV: Net Asset Value
AUM: Assets Under Management
DCG: Digital Currency Group, Grayscale's parent
A/ $GBTC used to be the only game in town if one wants exposure to #BTC, but couldn't invest in it directly or wants to invest in a BTC proxy for their 401(k) for tax reasons or doesn't want the hassle to store their private keys. Investors can trade $GBTC at OTCQX Exchange.
B/ $GBTC is backed 100% by #BTC. Accredited investors can buy Grayscale's privately-placed $GBTC shares at NAV (value of BTC holdings/share). When that happens, Grayscale will buy BTC to back up its shares. Currently, 1 $GBTC share = 0.000935656 BTC.
Read 15 tweets

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