Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/5. BREAKING NEWS!!!
From Oct 20, France (R-eff=1.04) is foreseen to leave its threshold defined as > 5,000 new #COVID19 cases/day, while decreasing in mortality.
75.6% 1 dose.
Regional forecasts for Oct 15 to 21.
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/5 - Five Régions are now increasing or plateauing above their #COVID19 safety zones, with remaining low to very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days:

Hauts-de-France=1.05;
Pays-de-la-Loire=1.03;
Ile-de-France=1.01;
Nouvelle-Aquitaine=1.01;
Corse=0.98.

3/5 - Nine Régions have reached their #COVID19 safety zones, and will stay in them, with low to very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days:

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes;
Bourgogne-et-Franche-Comté;
Bretagne;
Centre-Val-de-Loire;
Grand-Est;
Normandie;
Occitanie;

Mayotte;
Réunion.

4/5 - Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur (R-eff=0.88); [and Guadeloupe=0.80] are landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones, [close to reach it for Guadeloupe], with very low [high] mortality, for 7 more days.

5/5 – Martinique (R-eff=1.01); and [Guyane=0.84] are plateauing [landing], from high levels, towards their #COVID19 safety zones, with very high [high] levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

6/5 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

7/5 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0