2/9 - Europe -
Three #COVID19 zones:
- Green: Spain and Italy;
- Orange (R-eff <0.9) landing [close to safe zones]: ALB; Bos&Herz; [CH; NO]
- Red (R-eff>0.9) in all others:
FR=1.04; PT=1.05, moving away from their safe zones;
PL=1.19; DK=1.18; NL=1.19, IRL=1.14 are rising again.
3/9 - Europe (cont'd)
East and Central Europe is experiencing strong waves of #COVID19, very high to alarming mortality, for 7 more d.
Romania (R-eff=1.14, 31.8% 1 dose); Latvia=1.22 (51.1%); Bulgaria=1.14 (37.2%); Ukraine=1.18 (17.6%); Russia=1.08 (34.2%);
Slovakia=1.15 (45.3%)
4/9 - Africa -
Increase in #COVID19 cases in Gabon (R-eff=1.08), (4.9% received 1 dose);
Libya=0.93 is slowly landing (red), high mortality (21.0% received 1 dose).
Underreporting in many countries.
5/9 - Middle-East
Jordan (R-eff=1.06, 37.7% received 1 dose) is increasing in its #COVID19 epid activ, with medium mortality.
Israel (72.7%) is rapidly landing towards its safety zone, with medium mortality.
Iran is slowly landing, with remaining high mortality.
6/9 - Asia & Pacific
Laos (R-eff=1.14) is rising in in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low mortality, while Thailand=0.94 is slowly landing, with medium mortality; Philippines and Malaysia are landing, with medium mortality levels, for 7 more days.
7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
Singapore (R-eff=1.11, 81.4% received 1 dose) surges at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with med mortality, for 7 more d.
8/9 - North America -
Canada is plateauing in its #COVID19 epid activ, med mort, 78.7% 1 dose: Red in 6 prov/terr, green in Ontario, Orange in Alberta; BC.
The USA are slowly landing towards their safety zone, (66.1%), green in Florida, orange in 16, red in 33 states, high mort.
9/9 - Latin America
Chile=1.12; Domin Repub.=1.08 are leaving their #COVID19 safety zones. El Salvador=0.97; Belize=0.95: plateau, medium mortality;
Cuba; Costa-Rica; Mexico: landing, high mort.
Brazil, Argentina; Colombia; Peru: safe.
Def:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...
11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0
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1/5 - By Oct 23, France is foreseen to reach 5,433 new #COVID19 cases, with 20 deaths/days, if the trend remains at same pace (R-eff=1.07); 75.8% 1 dose.
1/14 - “The UK’s weekly death rate stands at 12 per million, three times the level of other major European nations, while hospitalisations have risen to eight #COVID19-related admissions a week per 100,000 people, six times the rate on the continent.” ft.com/content/345825…
2/14 - “Scientists have urged the UK government to impose fresh coronavirus restrictions in England over winter, as high hospital admission and fatality rates outstrip the rest of western Europe.”
3/14 - “The decision to end compulsory mask-wearing and to pause plans for vaccine passports in England has made the British government an outlier for its management of the pandemic and could account for the worsening trends, according to scientific experts.”
2/9 - Europe -
Three #COVID19 zones:
- Green: Spain and Italy;
- Orange (R-eff <0.9) landing: ALB; CH; NO.
- Red (R-eff>0.9) in all others:
FR=1.08; PT=1.06, moving away from their safe zones;
PL=1.26; DK=1.18; NL=1.21, IRL=1.14 are rising again.
3/9 - Europe (cont'd)
East and Central Europe are experiencing strong waves of #COVID19, very high to alarming mortality, for 7 more d.
Romania (R-eff=1.12, 32.4% 1 dose); Latvia=1.21(51.1%); Bulgaria=1.17 (37.4%); Ukraine=1.18 (17.7%); Russia=1.09 (34.3%);
Slovakia=1.14 (45.5%)
1/5 - On Oct 16, France is leaving its safety threshold of new #COVID19 cases (5,016), with 19 deaths/days. foreseen by Oct 22, R-eff=1.08, red; 75.7% 1 dose.
2/5 - Six Régions are leaving their #COVID19 safety zones, with remaining low to very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days:
Bretagne=1.05;
Corse=1.03;
Hauts-de-France=1.06;
Ile-de-France=1.06;
Pays-de-la-Loire=1.07;
Nouvelle-Aquitaine=1.05;
3/5 - Five Régions are slowly landing [landing] towards their #COVID19 safety zones, with remaining low to very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days:
1/4 - France, Suisse, Italie, Espagne et Portugal: sont-ils les derniers bastions de calme sur le front #COVID19?
L'étau pandémique se resserre.
La très forte activité épidémique à l'est et au centre de l'Europe semble désormais percoler vers l'ouest (DE,AU,DK, NL, BE, UK, IRL).
2/4 - Les semaines à venir pourraient sceller l'évolution de la pandémie en Europe cet hiver:
Les nations très vaccinées qui ont conservé passe sanitaire et port du masque résisteront-elles mieux et plus longtemps que celles qui ne misent que sur leur forte couverture vaccinale?
3/4 - On constate que là où la couverture vaccinale est inférieure à 50%, les pays (Russie, Roumanie) rencontrent de grandes difficultés à juguler la vague de mortalité et l'engorgement de leurs hôpitaux. Ceux qui dépassent 70%, sans mesures associées (UK, IRL), souffrent aussi.
1/3. By Oct 21, the United Kingdom can reach 43,851 new #COVID19 cases and 123 deaths daily, if the reproductive rate remains same (R-eff=1.07).
73.9% received 1 dose.
2/3 - England (R-eff=1.08) and Northern-Ireland=1.07 are experiencing increase again, at high level, in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low [medium] level of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/3 - Scotland (R-eff=0.95); and Wales=0.92 are slowly landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones, from high levels of activity, with medium mortality, for 7 more days.