1/3. By Oct 21, the United Kingdom can reach 43,851 new #COVID19 cases and 123 deaths daily, if the reproductive rate remains same (R-eff=1.07).
73.9% received 1 dose.
Forecasts for nations from Oct 15 to Oct 21.
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
73.9% received 1 dose.
Forecasts for nations from Oct 15 to Oct 21.
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/3 - England (R-eff=1.08) and Northern-Ireland=1.07 are experiencing increase again, at high level, in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low [medium] level of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/3 - Scotland (R-eff=0.95); and Wales=0.92 are slowly landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones, from high levels of activity, with medium mortality, for 7 more days.
4/3 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...
5/3 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0
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