#Moldova: PM Gavrilita and MFA Popescu met with various EU officials in Brussels. The most relevant so far has been that of the High Representative / Vice-President of the Borrell Commission. Here are some conclusions: ⤵️
1) The EU official congratulated the Moldovan officials on the electoral victory (that occurred more than two months ago); 2) He stressed that the government has a strong mandate to advance reforms, which is also a “great honor” and a “great responsibility”;⤵️
3) The rule of law is something that Borrell emphasized when speaking of bilateral dialogue, as well as democracy and human rights. 4) The EU strongly supports the new government's reform agenda, including the fight against corruption, Borrell noted.⤵️
He said that the EU will offer financial assistance (no mentioning of the ongoing macro-financial assistance) to support reforms (within the implementation of the Association Agreement), which should be sustainable!⤵️
5) Discussions with Moldovan officials included the possibility of developing cooperation in the field of defense and security. Brainstorming is probably taking place in this regard. Most likely, something will be presented at the Association Council at the end of October; ⤵️
6) Borrell reiterated the need to peacefully resolve the Transnistrian conflict. There are no indications of specific actions by the EU in this regard. 7) The importance of activity within the Eastern Partnership on the principles of inclusion and differentiation was also⤵️
underlined. By mentioning "inclusion", Borrell avoided talking about the "Association Trio” that Moldova set up together with Ukraine and Georgia in May 2021. Overall, the EU official has asked the right questions. The only thing that was overlooked is a fraction of the⤵️
critical appraisal of current government deviations in terms of good governance. The "ostrich approach" towards the Moldovan government is not good for the EU or for the quality of the planned reforms, which are vital to the smooth running of the country.⤵️
Read more about the situation on the ground here:👇

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More from @DionisCenusa

26 Sep
#Russia: Gazprom announced that it is ready to increase gas supply, based on new applications and renewed contracts. Putin's spokesperson, Peskov, has assured that Gazprom is a "reliable partner" for European countries: 1) These statements follow the request for an ⤵️
investigation of Russia's interventions in the vertiginous rise in gas prices, demanded of the European Commission by a group of MEPs. Although no clear evidence of non-compliance with supply contracts by Russia was presented, it is highly unlikely that the Kremlin is not⤵️
interested in using its gas/Gazprom leverage to profit from price fluctuations in European markets. 2) The unresolved issue of the Nord Stream 2 certification that should take place soon could be another trigger for the benevolence expressed by Peskov/Gazprom/Putin.⤵️
Read 6 tweets
26 Sep
#Germany: A very useful interview with Angela Merkel's former political adviser Christoph Heusgen explaining which were the most challenging decisions related to Eastern Europe and Russia: 1) Ukraine-Russia: “We did not want to promote that conflict. bit.ly/3lT0fgk ⤵️
That is why, against strong opposition from the United States, she prevented Ukraine from being granted the prospect of joining NATO; nor did the Association Agreement with the European Union open up any prospect of membership. She always kept in mind what was tolerable for ⤵️
Russia. But then, overnight, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych said: No, I'm not going to do this thing with the EU.” 2) Russian aggression: “But we could not have known that Russia was planning an invasion. U.S.Senator John McCain, however, felt it could have been ⤵️
Read 7 tweets
10 Aug
#Moldova: Putin's administration envoy Dmitry Kozak, who also oversees the Moldavian file (in particular, the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict) prepares for a trip to Chisinau. Two things it is important to keep in mind. First, President Sandu did not visit Moscow, ⤵️
although she did travel to various European capitals, including the EU. Second, the government program designed by Gavrilita's cabinet alludes to Moldova pursuing pragmatic and predictable relations with Russia. At the same time, the withdrawal of Russian arms & military forces⤵️
is also indicated as a priority in the dialogue with Moscow. It is unusual for a senior Russian official to come to Moldova, even before an official call occurred between new MFA Nicu Popescu (@nicupopescu) and Russian MFA Sergey Lavrov. Apparently, Kozak comes to Chisinau⤵️
Read 4 tweets
9 Aug
#Belarus: As the democratic opposition in exile celebrates the democratic awakening, Lukashenko launched a mixture of threats and disinformation to the public at home and to his nemeses abroad. Here are 14 most important takeaways: ⤵️
1) The drafting of the constitution is in progress. It will be presented to the public and subsequently approved in a referendum. Lukashenko imagines this whole process as "demicratic." With the opposition oppressed, detained, exiled or scared to death, it is impossible to⤵️
hold a democratic referendum. 2) He assured that he would soon end his political career. It is probably related to the adoption of the new constitution. But whether that means that Lukashenko or his loyal circle will not rule the country in his name, it is highly unlikely. ⤵️
Read 16 tweets
8 Aug
#Belarus: The exponent of the Minsk local administration Vladymyr Kukharev has instructed supermarkets to replace food products made in Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine from "central shelves". He even threatened sanctions if supermarkets did not comply. This action is considered⤵️
as a necessary response to the EU economic sanctions. Similar discriminatory measures are recommended throughout the country. If enacted, these measures could become counter-sanctions against the EU. Despite the fact that Ukraine did not join the EU economic sanctions, the⤵️
Lukashenko regime treats its neighbor to the south as hostile. In this article, I predicted that it only matters if long before Lukashenko applies the Russian-style countermeasures against EU food producers. 👇
Read 4 tweets
22 Jul
#NordStream2: The US-Germany agreement was signed. Here is my take on it: 1) The agreement is a compilation of aspects ranging from insecurities related to Russia to the general climate crisis and energy modernization of Ukraine. 2) From the beginning, it is obvious that both⤵️
the US and Germany want to reassure Ukraine by adding all the security concerns regarding Russia (Russian aggression, evil influence, Minsk Agreements, Normandy format). 3) However, the conventional security problems related to Russia seem slightly disconnected from the energy⤵️
aspects that remain in the agreement. 4) The disconnect is felt with the paragraph on joint efforts between the US and Germany to combat climate change. It separates the paragraph on Russia and the conventional insecurities and energy threats related to Russia.⤵️
Read 15 tweets

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