Clinical Response to COVID-19

How are other countries providing care to COVID-19 patients?

Here we compare UK versus Singapore.

[Evidence at end of thread]

1/n
SINGAPORE

TRIAGE:

Any cold/flu symptoms are triaged as ?#COVID19

ALL suspected or confirmed Covid cases are clinically triaged at public health clinics (run by primary care).

All cases have vitals taken, are swabbed and are clinically assessed.
FOLLOW-UP:

ALL cases are followed-up 3-5 days later, with an open-return policy

If confirmed positive (clinically or PCR) or develops signs of LRTI..

..patients transferred by dedicated ambulance to secondary care assessment.

Mean time to admission - 2.6 days (over 1yr)
CAPACITY

Vastly increased basic capacity with 'field' hospitals.

Private sector commissioned to continue 'routine' clinical activities during surges.

Patients can be admitted to a 'field hospital' for Level 0/1 care, or admitted to a dedicated infectious disease hospital.
Singapore has an older population, less doctors, and a denser population than the UK.

They have had less than 5 deaths/100k

Total Case Fatality Rate: 0.16%
UK

TRIAGE

No triage.

Patients who fit the symptom profile can receive a test. No vitals taken. No healthcare contact.

Patients are advised to contact 111 - online or by phone - if they are concerned.
FOLLOW-UP

No follow-up.

Patients who test positive are contacted by non-clinical staff to trace their contacts.

Patients are again advised to contact 111 (not GP) if concerned.

No COVID-19 confirmed patient - even vulnerable - receive any triage or follow-up.
CAPACITY

The UK REDUCED total basic care capacity prior to the pandemic by 8%.

The attempt to develop ICU field hospitals failed due to lack of staff.

The UK remains with less beds than before the pandemic.
The UK population is probably less healthy, and testing has probably been more aggressive.

Time to admission: 5 to 7 days (over 1yr)

We have had over 200 deaths/100k

Total CFR: 1.6% (10 times higher than Singapore)
Summary,
The importance of effective triage, follow-up, and having space to treat patients - I know it may be obvious but clearly not to those making the decisions -, is to detect those who are deteriorating early enough to..
1) stand the best chance of surviving

2) reduce long-term disability (#LongCovid) and

3) to reduce the need for high-level care (eg HDU/ICU) and the length of hospital stay - REDUCES HEALTHCARE BURDEN.
Effective triage reduces healthcare burden.

TRIAGE PROTECTS PATIENT AND NHS!

Waiting for patients to deteriorate and then treat them is neither effective nor efficient. More so for COVID-19, with a wide symptom profile and 'silent hypoxia'.

In the UK we have NO triage
The reason for this is in the attached thread, but, in short, @borisjohnson seems to think we don't need to use the primary care team for test, trace, and triage, and non-clinical providers will do.

But the fact is we have NONE.

In a pandemic we don't triage and we have less beds...

Now you know: what it could be like with engaged leadership, and what it is like with our current leadership. I am not political...but we need to call a spade a spade.
Here is a study we published yesterday on the reliability of the automated, 111 Covid triage service that replaced primary care triage in the UK.

Please share widely. It was public/media pressure that got changes last time.

#NHS #TeamGP

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More from @danielgoyal

20 Oct
Covid-19 and Herd Immunity

What is the clinical harm associated with pursuing a herd immunity policy?

1/15

#GovernmentCovidCatastrophe
@IndependentSage @DMinghella @doctor_oxford @ShaunLintern @dgurdasani1 @trishgreenhalgh @Kit_Yates_Maths @chrischirp
@TheBMA #TeamNHS
Putting aside whether it will work or whether a Health Immunity Strategy (HIS) is ethically right...

What will be the CLINICAL harm to the UK public of allowing SARS-CoV-2 to spread without any mitigation strategies?
We know access to healthcare during a pandemic saves lives and prevents disability.

We know the greatest barrier to a "catastrophic loss of life" with HIS is healthcare availability @wtgowers @ChrisCEOHopson
Read 15 tweets
19 Oct
#COVID19 and '111'

Serious questions about the '111' Triage Service.

Is it fit for purpose?

@NHSDigital @DrGregorSmith @CMO_England @doclourda @CMOWales @FatmaMansab

dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjhci…
Our study published today in the BMJ HCI examined the NHS '111' online triage tool.

Results include:

It could not reliably differentiate between mild and severe Covid-19.

It missed severe cases, advising such cases to say at home.
The study used 52 cases simulating various presentations of Covid-19 from seven national online triage tools.

Reliability was poorest for the '111' version.
Read 19 tweets
17 Oct
It's time to admit this is a national emergency and act accordingly.

The #NHS has never sustained these demands. And they are only increasing.

The UK government has no insight into the problem and it seems they have neither the skills nor the fortitude for such crises.

1/n
We have:

1. NHS pre-winter bed capacity beyond 95% - #NHS
2. The highest demand for primary care services ever recorded
3. An NHS staffing crisis
4. An unmitigated pandemic - #COVID19
5. An absent government
It is dangerous to run a hospital above 85% capacity. When space is tight in a hospital, risk increases.

Risk occurs as we must try and avoid admissions and expedite discharges. @NHSProviders
Read 22 tweets
15 Oct
The British public feel abandoned by their GP (and the NHS generally).

They feel GPs were hiding from the pandemic and afraid of getting #COVID19

The truth is so much more concerning…

@RCGP
@trishgreenhalgh @MartinRCGP @martinmckee @DrSimonHodes @drphilhammond
1. This government, under PM #Johnson And against the will of #TeamGP, bypassed GPs during this pandemic.
As shown in the above thread, There was a very clear objection by many GPs and GP leadership to being side-lined by the government’s pandemic strategy ….back in April 2020!!!

THIS IS OUTRAGEOUS!!!

And the public are completely unaware of this.
Read 8 tweets
14 Oct
Oh my word!

This was a thread from April 2020! @DrSimonHodes #TeamGP

This lack of triaging of patients was noticed and raised from the start…

Why have GPs been cut out the loop with covid testing and triage?

Rant follows 1/n
How can you have a pandemic response with NO Triage…seriously!!! @WHO

And if you get into the thread above you will see the comments are an echo of today “bizarre” “ideology led”

And a complete lack of frontline clinical representation on the government’s expert panel.
And it is the same with the parliamentarians reporting on the pandemic response…no clinical experts at all, or literacy, as far as I can tell…
Read 7 tweets
14 Oct
Lessons I have Learned so far

#COVID19

Experience:

+ Clinical Lead for level 1 and 2 (HDU) COVID Unit

+ Clinician for CAC (Covid Assessment centre)

+ Regional Lead for Remote COVID monitoring and follow-up service.

+ researcher orcid.org/0000-0003-0418…
1. Respect experience.

The two best preparations I undertook were to read, properly, the WHO guidelines (deep dive where necessary)
+
Spoke with the clinical lead in Singapore.

We are juniors in pandemic management and treating SARS. They are not.
IMO: when there is a new pathogen, the experts are those on the frontline treating the disease. At least until enough data is collected to analyse empirically…
Read 12 tweets

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