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Allen Au 🧢

18 Oct, 13 tweets, 7 min read

#BTC has been consolidating between $59K & $63K. Breaking ATH soon?

TLDR: Yes.
Revisit or even set new ATH ~10/31/21. Max. price for this rally is $70K-$73K
Why?
-Buy & Sell Oscillator & MRGO-14: Buy
-TI: Bullish
-Futures: Bullish w/ some selling
-Options: Bullish
-TA: Bullish

1/ MRGO-14 uses the difference in changes in #BTC's market & realized price to find buy/sell signals for BTC.

Green ➡️ Buy
Red ➡️ Sell

MGRO-14 has flipped green since 10/4/21.

2/ My #BTC Buy & Sell Oscillator has been >1 since 10/5/21.

Simple
Oscillator crosses above 1➡️Buy
Oscillator crosses below 1➡️Sell
Oscillator>2➡️Interim/cycle top

Advanced
Oscillator>1 &📈➡️Buy
Oscillator>1 &📉➡️Take profit
Oscillator<1 &📉➡️Short
Oscillator<1 &📈➡️Take profit

3/ On-chain #BTC realized volume in USD shows that the major resistance & support at:

R: $63.5K
S: $61.5K/$60K/$59K/$58.5K/$58K

Beyond $63.5K, BTC will be on well on its way to price discovery.

4/ On 10/4/21, #BTC's 21D EMA crossed back above its 34D EMA and its CM Super Guppy flipped green.

The price action of BTC has been bullish since these 2 technical indicators (TI) turned bullish.

5a CME #BTC futures annualized premium is double digit positive from October to December 2021, showing the contango trade is going strong for US institutions (sell BTC futures & buy spot BTC).

Bullish!

5b The #BTC perpetual futures liquidations for longs are trending down, while shorts are going up.

Bullish!

5c(i) After some comparison, I found token-margined funding rates for #BTC perpetual futures offer better insights into the price action of BTC than the USD/USDT margined funding rates or overall funding rates.

Particularly, the ones of Deribit & Bitmex offer the best guidance.

5c(ii) Currently, the token-margined funding rates of Deribit & Bitmex are positive. This is bullish for the price for #BTC.

When Deribit's >0.06%, traders could be over-leveraged & get liquidated, leading to a down draft for BTC's price.

5d/ #BTC futures OI are building up along with rising BTC's prices. It has taken out the $19B level & has grown to $23.1B. It looks it will challenge the ATH level of $27.4B, which coincides with BTC's ATH.

As the funding rates aren't excessive, BTC's price has more upside.

6/ $2.8B of Deribit #BTC options are expiring on 10/29/21.

Max Pain= $50K
Put/call Ratio= 0.57

The put call ratio indicates traders are bullish about BTC's price in October 2021.

25 delta skew for 7 & 30 days are showing the same bullish trend.

7a/ Technically, After breaking out of the trend line c, which is the 0.786 Fib Extension at $58K, #BTC shot up to almost $63K, but got rejected at trend line b & has since been consolidating between b & the pitch fork upper parallel trend line.

$58K-$59K offer good support.

7b/ #BTC broke out of a bullish pennant on 10/11/21 & the target price of this breakout is $70.5K.

Based on Fib Ext., BTC could reach between 1.272 Fib ($69.7K) & 1.414 Fib ($73K). There is confluence here.

BTC is likely on track to revisit & break its ATH around 10/31/21.

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More from @AllenAu11

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

20 Oct

A tale of 3 adjoined arcs

#BTC's price action rhymes in each cycle. Using chart patterns & log fib retracement, the current rally high, point of lift-off to the cycle peak & peak price are determined.

TLDR:
Current Rally high: ~$71K
Lift-off: ~$83K
Cycle Peak: ~$250K

1a/ It is found that in each cycle around this time of the year, #BTC price will form two adjoined arcs similar to a cup & handle pattern.

The height of the smaller arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the rally high, which is also called #CTM Wave 2 Peak.

1b/ The height of the larger arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the lift-off price level, from which #BTC will rally to its blow-off top.

BTC just broke out of the smaller arc. Thus, the current rally high is ~$71K. The lift-off price level is ~$83K.

Read 4 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

17 Oct

Here is another example of on-chain data, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), showing similar patterns between #BTC's current cycle and that in 2013 right before & after the mid-cycle correction.

TLDR: BTC could break its ATH by early Nov. 2021.
Cycle peak price: $410K?

1/ #BTC's NUPL is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss. This metric is calculated by subtracting realized cap from market cap, and dividing the result by the market cap. It is a measure of BTC's market sentiment.

medium.com/@adamant_capit…

2a/ We can see that #BTC's NUPL chart shows a 5-wave pattern before & after the mid-cycle correction that is similar in the 2013 & 2021 bull phases.

NUPL Wave 2 ➡️ Mid-Cycle Low Price
NUPL Wave 5 ➡️ #CTM Wave 1 Low Price

Read 5 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

14 Oct

𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟰𝟬 '𝟮𝟭

Price Action Indicators (Fundamentals that affect BTC's price)

TLDR: 📈
1. Miner metrics- Bullish
2. Supply metrics- Bullish
3. Institution demand- Mod. Bullish
4. Network metrics- Bullish

𝟭. 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀
a(i) The hash rate for #BTC miners continues to recover after the China mining ban. This has caused a global reshuffle of BTC mining hash rate such that the US has now emerged as the global leader in BTC mining as per the latest report from CCAF.

1a(ii) Technically, the #BTC hash rate forms an ascending channel. It challenged the key resistance level at 177E, which is also near the top of the channel, but got rejected. It's since recovered & is again on a run to challenge the resistance. Bullish!

Read 15 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

13 Oct

𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟰𝟬 '𝟮𝟭

𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 (𝟭𝟭 this wk)

TLDR: BTC hasn't peaked or is in its bear phase.
The 30D MA metrics, RHODL, & NUPL indicate that BTC has exited #CTM Wave 1* low & onto Wave 2*.

*👇

𝟭 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗣𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗧𝗼𝗽 & 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗣𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺

𝟭𝗮. 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗖𝗮𝗽 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking the peak & the bottom tracker is based on #BTC's moving average price.

BTC has neither peaked nor is it in a bear phase.

𝟭𝗯. 𝗙𝗶𝗯 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.

BTC has neither peaked nor is it in a bear phase.

Read 15 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

13 Oct

The Pi Cycle Top indicator has been accurate in picking out #BTC's tops. If #BTC's cycle peak were to occur in Dec. 2021, would it work?

TLDR: No, unless BTC will perform way better than in past cycles from the mid-cycle correction low with a blow-off top >$500K in Dec. 2021.

1/ The Pi Cycle Top indicator has been accurate in picking the timing of #BTC's tops within +/- 3 days. It uses the 111-day simple moving average (111SMA) & the 350SMAx2 of BTC's price. When the 111SMA moves up and crosses the 350SMAx2, that is when BTC's price reaches a top.

2/ Assume #BTC will reach its cycle peak in December 2021, 3 past BTC price data sets scaled from the mid-cycle correction low are used to test if the Pi Cycle Top could pick out the peak in 2021.

a. 2013
b. 2017
b. Average of 2013 & 2017

Read 12 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

11 Oct

I have built a simple model for tracking #BTC's cycle top & bottom. This is inspired by Philip Swift's Golden Ratio Multiplier, but I use Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples instead.

Top: Between 5.618 & 8.618 Fib Lines
Bottom: 0.382 Fib Line
Cycle top: $260K-$410K?

Notes:
1. The model is built simply using the 350D simple moving average (SMA) of #BTC's price. From this, we use Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of BTC's price to arrive at various lines, namely 0.382, 2.618, 3.618, 5.618, 8.618, 13.618.

2. In the original Golden Ratio Multiplier model, it is noted that each top of #BTC was hitting decreasing Fib sequence multiples of 350D SMA (21, 13, 8, 5, 3) so the current cycle peak should be in the range of 2x. Although this makes sense, I don't think this will happen. Why?

Read 10 tweets

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