This is our 4th QUB/ICBAN report since the 2016 referendum.
The study involved an online #survey of those living/working in the Central Border Region.
Our survey received c400 responses, equally spread either side of the border. There were also interviews & focus groups.
2/10
We are VERY grateful to each of the respondents to this survey.
It took a time to complete because we insisted on getting comments/views/examples…
And hence the report is another fairly hefty one, as the #Contents show.
The focus is on giving space/voice to respondents.
3/10
Headline findings from the responses to the #survey – bearing in mind this is a large but not a representative sample – are as follows:
First, #Brexit is still seen as major topic of importance by 86% of our respondents -
It's a live & lived issue north & south.
4/10
And the impact of #Brexit has worse or much worse than expected for half our respondents, with only 14% saying it was better than they had feared.
This is notable cos we know from our previous QUB-ICBAN reports they expected it to be bad. 😬
(e.g. tinyurl.com/TheBorderIntoB…)
5/10
And what has that impact been? This is where the comments come into their own.
Obvs, the experience of the #Protocol is a factor here too.
While respondents point to #economic effects, it's the consequences for #social & political relations they're most concerned about.
6/10
The greatest concerns expressed by respondents (from all backgrounds & both sides of the border) are for:
* political #stability in NI,
* North/South #cooperation, &
* #community relations in the border region.
This is reflected in what they feel most pessimistic about...
7/10
Despite the #Protocol's purpose, over half our respondents believe that there might yet be a #hard Irish land #border.
A repeated theme is that of #uncertainty & instability – a sense that the poor UK-EU rel'ship & British-Irish tensions are having effect on the ground.
8/10
To learn more detail on positive & negative views of Brexit/the Protocol, specific challenges for cross-border cooperation, the views of Leave-voters in the border region, the experience of EU migrant workers, the impact of Covid at the border...
👇👇 ukandeu.ac.uk/the-border-aft…
9/10
Meantime, this is evidence, if it were needed, for @DavidGHFrost & @MarosSefcovic that the talks they're having on the #Protocol are being watched nervously by those who far from London & Brussels, Dublin & Belfast, but who are still most directly affected by the outcome.
10/10
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It would be weird if a political sociologist in N.Ireland didn't have something to say about the #NIcensus2021 results released today, wouldn't it?!
& a pity if there weren't slides to go along with those comments...
NI population is up, more households with fewer people in each (2.44 ave).
There is more ethnic and language diversity than before but, oh my, it's still not very much. 2/9
"How would you describe your national identity" - a comparison here between 2011 & 2021.
A drop in British only (down 8 percentage points), and a rise in Irish only (up by 4 % points). 3/9
Predicting the outcome of the Assembly #Election in N.Ireland is straightforward enough if you know how.
There are a handful of key factors to bear in mind.
Nail all of these & you’ll be way ahead of the game come results day 🤓 #AE22 🏖️
1/8
#1: the Issues 📝
What concerns are raised on the door steps? On the airwaves? Social media? Street demos?
What real life problems are addressed in the manifestos?
What policies are dissected in political debate?
Find the common thread across these & ... oh 😶
Moving on💨
2/8
#2: the Parties🥳
What do the polls say [& do they tally]?
How trusted are their leaders, & how secure are they?
How did they perform in the last mandate?
Have they made major blunders?
Are they running too many or too few candidates?
How transfer-friendly are they, to whom?
3/8