Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #uncertainty

Most recents (24)

1/ Q: When will we get to herd immunity?

A: When we get a vaccine & lots of people have received it; or else, a very long time from now. Image
2/ Even though we have well over 30 million confirmed cases & nearly a million deaths from #COVID19 worldwide, we’re not even close to reaching herd immunity. In fact, we're not even close to the lowest estimates for herd immunity in the places that were absolutely slammed early.
3/ Most scientists think that we need around 60-70% of people to be immune to #COVID19 in order to reach herd immunity. Herd immunity happens when a virus is starved of new hosts because susceptible people are so rare in the population.
Read 13 tweets
Economics is primarily a way of thinking about the world that uncovers the true mechanisms and processes behind, and helps us understand, what we can all observe. This is a forever thread collecting my #econthread tweets. #PerBylundthreads
Read 46 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 08/22/2020 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/08/22/dai…
So Far, 2020 Has Been Our Year of Magical Thinking | The Nation

thenation.com/article/societ…

#MagicalThinking #coronavirus
Complex systems science allows us to see new paths forward | Aeon Essays

aeon.co/essays/complex…

#coronavirus #SFI #complexity
Read 7 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 08/21/2020 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/08/21/dai…
Emergent Ventures prizes for best new and recent blogs - Liberalism 2.0 fellows - Marginal REVOLUTION

marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…

#ventures #blogs #liberalism #emergent #prizes
The 27 Principles — Renegade Inc.

link.medium.com/R7c7yDme68

#politics #economics #change #systems
Read 6 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 7/12/2020-2

greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/07/12/dai…

How Futurists Cope With Uncertainty | by Amy Webb | The Startup | Medium

medium.com/swlh/how-futur…

#uncertainty
Covid-19 and climate change: Why we need to remember what we’ve lost - Vox

vox.com/energy-and-env…

#COVID19 #ClimateChange #TippingPoint
Can HVAC guidance help prevent transmission of COVID-19? | McKinsey

mckinsey.com/industries/adv…

#transmission #COVID19 #coronavirus #hvac
Read 3 tweets
Ops, we did it again! Image denoising just leveled up!!! arxiv.org/abs/2006.06072
Our new method can do so much more than just predicting a denoised image!
Let us take you on a short tour… (1/6) #CARE #denoising #uncertainty #diversity @Mangal_Prakash_ @sagzehn @jug_lab
What always bugged us with any CARE method is that a single restored output is created, giving the false impression that the input can unambiguously be restored. But some information gets lost in the noise, so this can obviously not strictly be true! (2/6) arxiv.org/abs/2006.06072
A #DivNoising network is trained to know how structures in the data look like and can be used to predict diverse denoised outputs. In areas of the image where the input is ambiguous, #DivNoising will sample the space of reasonable interpretations.(3/6) arxiv.org/abs/2006.06072
Read 8 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 6/05/2020-2

greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/06/05/dai…

Bruno Latour, the Post-Truth Philosopher, Mounts a Defense of Science - The New York Times

nytimes.com/2018/10/25/mag…

#philosophy #postmodernism #Science
Leading with the Unknowns in COVID-19 Models - Scientific American Blog Network

blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/l…

#models #uncertainty #DecisionMaking
Read 12 tweets
This was indeed a fantastic and very insightful panel! Perhaps a summary of the main points can be useful. Thus, a long thread. 1/n
All panelists agree: Market power in #digital markets is worrisome. Fiona and Tommaso think that #mergers can worsen this situation and directly harm consumers by killing actual or potential competition, reducing #innovation (either killing the innovation of the target or .. 2/n
…the innovation of the acquiring incumbents) and quality (including #privacy). Mergers can also cause indirect harm (Tommaso) by increasing prices in the other side(s) of the market (e.g. #advertising). 3/n
Read 14 tweets
(1/13) Q: Help! My kid is supposed to start or return to #college in the fall. Will colleges even be open? Our family isn't that excited about Zoom U.

A: While very few colleges have announced firm plans, we compiled as much information as we could find in this thread:
(2/13) With so much #uncertainty about what the next academic year looks like, students and their families are having to make big, expensive decisions with little information.

What are some of the options schools are considering? The main scenarios are:
(3/13)
1. Open in-person instruction with changes to accommodate #Covid_19
2. Postpone the start of fall semester by weeks/months.
3. Online/remote instruction in Fall 2020, & re-open campus for Spring 2021.
4. Cancel fall semester and run a full academic year from Jan-Aug 2020
Read 13 tweets
Over the past few weeks of #covid19 confinement - or #shelteringinplace as they say in the US - we have been able to witness (and sometimes support) a number of organizations in their move to #remotework
We believe our experience with implementing #NWoW - #futureofwork in North America - is a helpful lens in seeing both the challenges and changes organizations face when switching to #remotework... some observations:
Organizations that are technologically well-equipped for #remotework before #covid19 were obviously advantaged, but... it was much easier for organizations that were already culturally fit/ready! #orgculture
Read 8 tweets
BLOG: Modernity without its clothes: the pandemic crisis shines a light on futilities of control | Andy Stirling

steps-centre.org/blog/modernity…

#COVID19 #uncertainty
(Image: Rob Oo / cc-by 2.0) Engine control room
"What is now becoming devastatingly undermined is the general credibility of any confident performance of predictive control...

What the pandemic shows is that in the wider, long-run ‘real world’ of human affairs, *control does not exist*."
"Just as a hammer can condition its holder to see every problem as a nail, so unfolding Modernities around the world are ironically enslaved by their perennial aspirations to control."
Read 5 tweets
PR firms prepare 60-80% of global news while 6 media corps control lion's share of global news. [Giants: the Global Power Elite by P Phillips].

Contemplating the sound question "what are they trying to sell me?" is always a legitimate/wise exercise.

If the "ideological protectors of concentrated global capital" wanted you to remain calm - the media, in lockstep, would mirror & amplify this desire. Instead we witness a psychological terror campaign waged against populace - w/ a growing acceptance/demand of fascist measures.
Many of the observations from the 2016 article, "Why We’re Living in the Age of Fear" can be explored in relation to what we bear witness to, at present moment. Our #fear is very easy to #manipulate. "We're #wired to respond to it above everything else."

rollingstone.com/politics/polit…
Read 21 tweets
So much #fear, #uncertainty & #confusion abounds in our #society & #community right now. It's #understandable, a #Human response.For over 40 years my #Motto, #CatchPhrase or #Mantra,if you will, has been & still is a lyric in a song by one of my favourite Rock Bands- Uriah Heep!
I've used the line to define a lot of the philosophy I believe in, from a #signature on a #profile to some #website subscription to a deeply felt, personal interpretation of whatever is happening in the present moment in time!
The song: #CircleOfHands,the line: #Todays are only #Yesterdays, #Tomorrow! It says to me that whatever is happening #Today,by #Tomorrow it will be cast into history & be a #Yesterday!Always gave me hope that whatever ails us now,we'll survive& look back& realize all things pass!
Read 5 tweets
1/10 It’s hard to shut my mind off in the face of #COVID19. As #AcuteCareSurgeons our day/night/weekend jobs taking care of #injured patients and #patients needing #EmergencySurgery for abdominal and soft tissue diseases do not dissipate.
2/10 Yet we are also experts in #CriticalCare and need to prepare to care for patients w/ #respiratoryfailure and #shock due to #COVID19. We are implementing #plans based on the little evidence that exists while trying to stay #safe, #healthy, and #resilient.
3/10 We step into the trauma bay as others threaten to shoot our patient (but police can protect us). We do operations where rHepC/HIV risk is high (but PEP can protect us). We don't shy away from blood, feces or dead flesh up to our eyeballs (but we have #PPE to protect us).
Read 10 tweets
Yesterday was hard.
Today will be harder.
It's going to get worse.

How do we deal and cope amongst the #uncertainty and #chaos?

Some thoughts about managing through the #coronavirus #pandemic:
#Covid_19
1. At work:
✅If you're in a position of leadership, get on the same page with the rest of leadership
✅Know your institution's policies, collate them in 1 place, disseminate to employees
✅Be proactive in asking folks how they are. What ? do they have? If you don't know, say so
✅Amidst all the physical preparedness, don't forget to check on their mental and emotional health.

We are all scared. Uncertain of each coming day. Of each coming hour.

Don't assume when folks are quiet that they are not scare, confused, or just need a little comfort.
Read 25 tweets
Canada criminalizes Indigenous People who exercise their Inherent Rights & pursue their livelihoods

RCMP raid #Wetsuweten Lands
Private Security + RCMP Harrass #TinyHouseWarriors
DFO do sting operations on #Mikmaw Fishers
OPP killed Dudley George
Etc Etc
cbc.ca/news/canada/no…
Read this Full story on armed oppression of Indigenous Sovereign pursuits of livelihoods by @Pam_Palmater

macleans.ca/opinion/the-bl…
On Occupations Dr John Borrows, 2005 Report
“Over the past 250 years Aboriginal peoples have been largely dispossessed of their lands & resources in Canada. Land is crucial to their survival as peoples. Its continuing reoccupation...inspires their visions”
attorneygeneral.jus.gov.on.ca/inquiries/ippe…
Read 9 tweets
MAR 5 #CoronavirusOutbreak MD THREAD 1: Latest ARGIS Map 3/5 6:53AM .. NOTE #China not supplying DEATHS update.FIRST SEE #IMF Report from yesterday.. AND Breaking #Boris suspends #British #Parliament .. IS #Iran totally sure that Vendor from #Wuhan had come to HolyDays before?
MAR 5 #CoronavirusOutbreak MD THREAD 2:
Yesterday's MD THREAD: tinyurl.com/ww2jk4h
by MD trained during #HIV #AIDS Epidemic When we had to fight YEARS for Research, and Treatment.
Still do @VP #Pence killed many in #Indiana in 2015 #maddow @seattletimes @sfchronicle
MAR 5 #CoronavirusOutbreak MD THREAD 3: WaPo Mapping LINK...tinyurl.com/qrsxkva as I note above I like ARGIS JohnsHopkins Map better but this is US alone... HEADS UP..SCARY folks...
While #ImpeachedForLife #IMPOTUS45 #Trump and @VP Pence are clueless @maddow @CNN @votevets
Read 36 tweets
Really cool study on physician “positivity” from 1987, very thought-provoking about managing #uncertainty:

Abstract below, but I encourage reading the paper - it’s short and open access: bmj.com/content/bmj/29…

(H/T @AdamRodmanMD and @drjohnm)

Some thoughts..

1/ Image
Interesting that physician “positivity” in the study is a mix of certainty and reassurance, with a touch of... deceit 😬. Hardcore paternalism.

“Negativity” is basically conflated with acknowledgement of uncertainty without much elaboration or statement of hope/optimism.

2/
Dr. Simpkin @greyscalespaces and others have studied & argued that acknowledging—nay tolerating—nay embracing uncertainty is healthy for clinicians.

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
There is some confusion about how the #market economy works. Simply put: production drives it, but #consumption is the intended outcome. It is false, but a common misconception, to think consumption drives it. It means one overlooks the core problem of economizing production,
which is solved by market allocation. Consumption as driver might apply for production for oneself, such as Robinson Crusoe on his deserted island, but it is different in a market setting. We do produce in order to consume, but we typically produce specific goods, which, through
sale, earn us an income that we can then spend on goods to consume. What goods do we consume? Those produced by others and acquired through purchases using the money we earned. This means our consumption, and what we wish to consume, is not the driver of the economy. Consumption
Read 11 tweets
Today's Applied Complexity Symposium begins with a panel on Computation and Complex Economies, feat. Rob Axtell, Joshua Epstein, @C4COMPUTATION, Blake LeBaron, John Miller, & @MelMitchell1

(Follow this thread for live coverage all day...)

#complexsystems #economics
4 Principles of Collective #Computation:

1 Ground truth (objective reality)
2 Effective ground truth (what we agree on, whether or not it is accurate)
3 #Information can be collectively encoded in #networks
4 Outputs are a product of collective dynamics

@C4COMPUTATION right now
"I think #economics really needs to adopt a generative framework with agent-based models of cognitively plausible software people...[and] we don't choose to fear."

- SFI'S Joshua Epstein (@GeorgeMasonU) on modeling emotions at today's ACtioN symposium:
Santafe.edu/action
Read 44 tweets
SFI President David Krakauer introduces our annual board of trustees symposium on New #Complexity #Economics - follow this thread for live coverage of talks by @EricBeinhocker @AKStanger @ole_b_peters @JacksonmMatt @cmoncap & W. Brian Arthur today...
"I think we have to be aware that we're not just discussing financial systems. We are discussing the future of the stability of the planet."

- David Krakauer
on #Complexity #Economics
"What is the #economy? I would argue that it doesn't exist in the physical world. It is a product of our #imagination. It is made out of #ideas. It does have an effect on the physical world. But the imagined order that we have is not succeeding."

- @EricBeinhocker
Read 38 tweets
"You don't see radio changing gradually and suddenly become radar. #Darwin's theory doesn't work for #technology, and we have to make a new observation."

- W Brian Arthur at SFI today

#evolution #innovation #invention
"Novel technologies are constructed from existing technologies. These offer themselves as components for the construction of further technologies."

- W Brian Arthur at SFI today

#evolution #innovation #invention #technology #engineering #design
Unlike the two-parent #inheritance typical to (but not ubiquitous among) #complex organisms, #technology inherits features from n parents - a "vast ancestral #network" more like horizontal gene transfer networks in #bacteria.

W Brian Arthur on sumulating #invention on a chip:
Read 18 tweets
"Life did not invent #DNA."

Experimental support for the #hotsprings hypothesis for life's origin: David Deamer of @ucsc on nucleic acid polymerization in the wet-dry cycling of Darwin's "warm little pond," powered by #geothermal. Lab results confirmed in #hydrothermal pools.
From "boring statistical partitioning" in the fission of early protocells to the complex #homeostasis-driven #mitosis of the cells we know - Doron Lancet of @WeizmannInstSci on the gradient between closure of #autocatalysis #networks to complex regulatory mechanisms of #biology.
"Life is an integrated nested network of dynamic #kinetic cycles."

Addy Pross emphasizes the importance of motion to the persistent forms of self-organizing #complexsystems at SFI today
Read 13 tweets
1. Welcome to the 1st presentation of today’s #HCTwitterConf19 #NoPressure I'm @louoboyle & I'm asking WHY SHOULD I BOTHER? Provoking & reflecting on why #MakingConnections is increasingly crucial to all facets of our practices, thinking & futures within & beyond HE @HumCommons
@humcommons 2. #SetTheScene #WorkLife
To-do lists can seem to get ever longer & the timescales to complete even shorter. Mindful that #Wellbeing #SelfCare are always priority, why spend time engaging with communities like @HumCommons online?
#HCTwitterConf19
@humcommons 2a. (further reading)
Doing More with Less? Work and Wellbeing in Academics euppublishing.com/doi/full/10.33…
Read 22 tweets

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