Boats for Q4 left SHG a full 20 days earlier than previous quarters.
And the trip took less long, so that the first 3 boats for Q4 arrived a full 26-29 days *earlier* than first boats for Q3!
So "all other things being equal" we should expect daily deliveries in NL, SP and NO, for which such data is available, to pick up in the next coming days, apace with the record-setting Q3, just drawn forward in time.
Mind you Troy expects 54k for 🇪🇺 in Q4 vs 46k in Q3!
But Q4 is not equal to Q3!
💠Q3 filled MY backlog.
💠Q4 sees OEMs quote longer deliveries due to supply chain issued. Will $TSLA remain immune?
💠Orders for competitive BEV are in. Will anyone cancel and switch to Tesla?
What if deliveries turned out like this:
Would "dampen the wave" then be used as excuse?
$TSLA *should* dampen that quarterly cycle that never made sense except for hype.
But "dampening" won't be a valid excuse if Q4 falls short, as that may have started end of Q3 instead of Troy's suggestion of Q1 2022.
So Troy's tweet seems a bit disingenuous.
I will continue reporting facts out of Europe.
I leave it up to other experts like @BertelSchmitt and @Paul91701736 to figure out what Troy is really about.
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So where are we again in the $TSLA European Q3 delivery cycle?
Why, we are at the point where "in transit" inventory has become local, but not all those local cars have been matched to order yet. So close to end of quarter...
Time to get out the *** DISCOUNTS !!! ***
These M3 LR for Swiss market are now labeled as "demonstration model" even though they have no miles on them.
The LR MIC was already 2000 CHF cheaper due to Chinese battery and slightly lower range.
Now the discount is almost 4000 CHF or over 7%!
Another approach is to sell real demo models, or test drive cars, with some miles on them, at discount.
That is what is happening in UK right now:
Discount is about 7% for LR, 5% for P models, all produced in Q2.
Elon tweets about FSD not simply to pump the stock.
Seems like with all those recent price cuts, FSD makes the difference between selling 2020 inventory at a profit of a loss, both in case of new or used car.
Let's look at just one particular *used* VIN in 🇨🇭 :
There are still 17 used M3 on offer in 🇨🇭, and 6 of them are loaded with FSD. In early February that FSD option was basically valued at zero.
At same time only 2 new inventory car had FSD option, see earlier tweet
Dear $TSLAQ please take your eyes off the stock price and back onto the one single item that matters rn:
CASH ON HAND!
Even if we have no direct reading we can infer qualitatively from the delivery report, current inventory levels and regional disparities in that inventory.
As @fly4dat has extensively reported, EU Q2 deliveries were weak.
China +/- as expected.
US stronger than even @TroyTeslike expected but then @Paul91701736 gives us proof of inventory in US.
As I reported before $TSLA dropped prices on used cars in its inventory to liquidate by EOQ. Needed that cash!
Today, between D, FR and CH, $TSLA lists a total of *7* available cars, all of them used. That is nothing. No new models, only used cars.