The Naked Caller

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23 Oct, 6 tweets, 3 min read

What is Troy trying to achieve here?
Walk back expectations in case Q4 underwhelms?

This whole "dampen the wave" is starting to sound very suspicious...

Let's look at some cold hard facts out of Europe.

Thread:

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1451721573396791296

Boats for Q4 left SHG a full 20 days earlier than previous quarters.

And the trip took less long, so that the first 3 boats for Q4 arrived a full 26-29 days *earlier* than first boats for Q3!

So "all other things being equal" we should expect daily deliveries in NL, SP and NO, for which such data is available, to pick up in the next coming days, apace with the record-setting Q3, just drawn forward in time.

Mind you Troy expects 54k for 🇪🇺 in Q4 vs 46k in Q3!

But Q4 is not equal to Q3!

💠Q3 filled MY backlog.
💠Q4 sees OEMs quote longer deliveries due to supply chain issued. Will $TSLA remain immune?
💠Orders for competitive BEV are in. Will anyone cancel and switch to Tesla?

What if deliveries turned out like this:

Would "dampen the wave" then be used as excuse?

$TSLA *should* dampen that quarterly cycle that never made sense except for hype.

But "dampening" won't be a valid excuse if Q4 falls short, as that may have started end of Q3 instead of Troy's suggestion of Q1 2022.

So Troy's tweet seems a bit disingenuous.

I will continue reporting facts out of Europe.

I leave it up to other experts like @BertelSchmitt and @Paul91701736 to figure out what Troy is really about.

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More from @CallerNaked

The Naked Caller

23 Sep

The $TSLA European Q3 deliveries look set to prove one of the main $TSLAQ bear arguments, making the record-setting absolute deliveries irrelevant:

💠Q3 reveals the cannibalization of M3 by MY.
💠New model pipeline is now effectively empty.

A lethal combination!

Norway alone is soaking up 1/3rd of the 15k MY that @TroyTeslike estimates for all of Europe for Q3.

This can be attributed to pent-up orders that were supposed to be gradually filled from Brandenburg factory. So this won't be repeated in Q4.

But Norway is always special case.

How about Netherlands, where subsidies have been stable throughout 2021?

There, M3 registrations have fallen to the bottom of top 20. $TSLA overall only manages 6th place at < 6.0% market share.

Netherlands is wealthy and prosperous relative to European average.

The Naked Caller

23 Sep

So where are we again in the $TSLA European Q3 delivery cycle?

Why, we are at the point where "in transit" inventory has become local, but not all those local cars have been matched to order yet. So close to end of quarter...

Time to get out the *** DISCOUNTS !!! ***

These M3 LR for Swiss market are now labeled as "demonstration model" even though they have no miles on them.

The LR MIC was already 2000 CHF cheaper due to Chinese battery and slightly lower range.

Now the discount is almost 4000 CHF or over 7%!

Another approach is to sell real demo models, or test drive cars, with some miles on them, at discount.

That is what is happening in UK right now:

Discount is about 7% for LR, 5% for P models, all produced in Q2.

The Naked Caller

24 Mar

$TSLA Q1 deliveries in 🇪🇺:

Most data points towards "ok" quarter:
🔹Ship tracker
🔹Deliveries trackers by country
🔹National $TSLA sites
🔹my own #SGF reports

But this "ok" quarter seems to come at a cost of unsustainable one-offs. Not to mention

🔹Price cuts

Thread:

Ship tracker:

Bulls claim "record" 10 ships to 🇪🇺, beating 9 for Q4 2020 and 7 for Q4 2019.

This may lead to a record in UK, which got RHD supply from 3 boats from Shanghai, in answer to *new* BEV incentives.

But rest of 🇪🇺 had to do with 7 ships vs 9 last Q (7 SFO + 2 SHG).

National delivery trackers:

NL+NO+SP seems more in line with Q1 or Q3 2020.
Far cry from Q4 2019 or Q4 2020.

Country $TSLA delivery data shows "ok" JAN+FEB, but declining market share. And definitely worse product mix as S and X have become negligible.

The Naked Caller

7 Mar

Elon tweets about FSD not simply to pump the stock.

Seems like with all those recent price cuts, FSD makes the difference between selling 2020 inventory at a profit of a loss, both in case of new or used car.

Let's look at just one particular *used* VIN in 🇨🇭 :

There are still 17 used M3 on offer in 🇨🇭, and 6 of them are loaded with FSD. In early February that FSD option was basically valued at zero.

At same time only 2 new inventory car had FSD option, see earlier tweet

https://twitter.com/BonaireVolt/status/1357671110574108673?s=20

By Feb 15th *none* of the 120 new inventory M3 had FSD.

The option reappeared couple of days later, and as of this moment 36 of the 166 listed cars have FSD option!

Before only P specs had FSD. Now 12P, 24 AWD and even 1 SR+ have it.

The Naked Caller

19 Aug 20

Finally some life springing back to the EU $TSLA Q3 delivery scene!

Inventory had been emptied out by end of Q2 and the first RORO unloaded only 2 weeks ago, so we could not really expect much before.

Will it be business as usual for rest of Q3?

Thread 1/14

Most inventory for new cars shown on 14 Tesla EU sites still says "in transit". Far fewer cars have a city "site" label attached to them.

For example in CH about 30 M3 (out of 100+) are attached to either Zurich or Geneva. 8 out of 13 S and 5 out of 15 X also "on site".

2/14

Geneva showroom showing only one 3 and one X. Expect S to be added soon, because why not with all that inventory?

In Q2 as M3 got delivered used S and X were added to Tesla website offer. Remember how they liquidated them by dropping price on those *every day*.

3/14

The Naked Caller

7 Jul 20

Dear $TSLAQ please take your eyes off the stock price and back onto the one single item that matters rn:

CASH ON HAND!

Even if we have no direct reading we can infer qualitatively from the delivery report, current inventory levels and regional disparities in that inventory.

As @fly4dat has extensively reported, EU Q2 deliveries were weak.
China +/- as expected.

US stronger than even @TroyTeslike expected but then @Paul91701736 gives us proof of inventory in US.

As I reported before $TSLA dropped prices on used cars in its inventory to liquidate by EOQ. Needed that cash!

Today, between D, FR and CH, $TSLA lists a total of *7* available cars, all of them used. That is nothing. No new models, only used cars.

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