๐ญ๐ฎ. ๐ง๐ผ๐ฝ ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking the peak & the bottom tracker is based on #BTC's moving average price.
BTC hasn't peaked yet.
๐ญ๐ฏ. ๐๐ถ๐ฏ ๐ ๐๐น๐๐ถ๐ฝ๐น๐ถ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.
*This is similar to that when #BTC was on #CTM Wave 2 of the 2013 bull phase.
This metric went up to 3 on 10/20/21 coinciding when BTC broke its ATH. There is no question that BTC isn't in a bear phase.
๐ฐ๐ฏ. ๐ ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฉ-๐ญ ๐ฆ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ (๐ฏ๐ฌ-๐๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐) (๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฑ): ๐ฌ๐ฒ๐
This corresponds to that when #BTC is on #CTM Wave 2.
The chart pattern is similar to that when #BTC was on #CTM Wave 2 of the 2013 bull phase.
๐ฒ๐ฏ. ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ถ๐๐ธ (๐ฏ๐ฌ-๐๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐) (๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฑ): ๐ฌ๐ฒ๐
This corresponds to that when #BTC is on #CTM Wave 2.
#BTC's price action rhymes in each cycle. Using chart patterns & log fib retracement, the current rally high, point of lift-off to the cycle peak & peak price are determined.
TLDR:
Current Rally high: ~$71K
Lift-off: ~$83K
Cycle Peak: ~$250K
1a/ It is found that in each cycle around this time of the year, #BTC price will form two adjoined arcs similar to a cup & handle pattern.
The height of the smaller arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the rally high, which is also called #CTM Wave 2 Peak.
1b/ The height of the larger arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the lift-off price level, from which #BTC will rally to its blow-off top.
BTC just broke out of the smaller arc. Thus, the current rally high is ~$71K. The lift-off price level is ~$83K.
#BTC has been consolidating between $59K & $63K. Breaking ATH soon?
TLDR: Yes.
Revisit or even set new ATH ~10/31/21. Max. price for this rally is $70K-$73K
Why?
-Buy & Sell Oscillator & MRGO-14: Buy
-TI: Bullish
-Futures: Bullish w/ some selling
-Options: Bullish
-TA: Bullish
1/ MRGO-14 uses the difference in changes in #BTC's market & realized price to find buy/sell signals for BTC.
Green โก๏ธ Buy
Red โก๏ธ Sell
MGRO-14 has flipped green since 10/4/21.
2/ My #BTC Buy & Sell Oscillator has been >1 since 10/5/21.
Here is another example of on-chain data, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), showing similar patterns between #BTC's current cycle and that in 2013 right before & after the mid-cycle correction.
TLDR: BTC could break its ATH by early Nov. 2021.
Cycle peak price: $410K?
1/ #BTC's NUPL is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss. This metric is calculated by subtracting realized cap from market cap, and dividing the result by the market cap. It is a measure of BTC's market sentiment.
๐ญ. ๐ ๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐
a(i) The hash rate for #BTC miners continues to recover after the China mining ban. This has caused a global reshuffle of BTC mining hash rate such that the US has now emerged as the global leader in BTC mining as per the latest report from CCAF.
1a(ii) Technically, the #BTC hash rate forms an ascending channel. It challenged the key resistance level at 177E, which is also near the top of the channel, but got rejected. It's since recovered & is again on a run to challenge the resistance. Bullish!
๐ญ๐ฎ. ๐ง๐ผ๐ฝ ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking the peak & the bottom tracker is based on #BTC's moving average price.
BTC has neither peaked nor is it in a bear phase.
๐ญ๐ฏ. ๐๐ถ๐ฏ ๐ ๐๐น๐๐ถ๐ฝ๐น๐ถ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.
The Pi Cycle Top indicator has been accurate in picking out #BTC's tops. If #BTC's cycle peak were to occur in Dec. 2021, would it work?
TLDR: No, unless BTC will perform way better than in past cycles from the mid-cycle correction low with a blow-off top >$500K in Dec. 2021.
1/ The Pi Cycle Top indicator has been accurate in picking the timing of #BTC's tops within +/- 3 days. It uses the 111-day simple moving average (111SMA) & the 350SMAx2 of BTC's price. When the 111SMA moves up and crosses the 350SMAx2, that is when BTC's price reaches a top.
2/ Assume #BTC will reach its cycle peak in December 2021, 3 past BTC price data sets scaled from the mid-cycle correction low are used to test if the Pi Cycle Top could pick out the peak in 2021.