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Allen Au 🧢

24 Oct, 15 tweets, 9 min read

𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗸𝘀 𝟰𝟭 & 𝟰𝟮 '𝟮𝟭

𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀

TLDR: BTC broke its ATH so it isn't in its bear phase as shown repeatedly here.

5 indicators show that BTC is on #CTM Wave 2 & on its way to its cycle peak.

𝟭 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗣𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗧𝗼𝗽 & 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗣𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺

𝟭𝗮. 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗖𝗮𝗽 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking the peak & the bottom tracker is based on #BTC's moving average price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.

𝟭𝗯. 𝗙𝗶𝗯 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.

𝟮. 𝟲𝟬-𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝗩𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆: 𝗖𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱? 𝗡𝗼

When 60D VVOL crosses V2 again, #BTC is expected to peak within 60 days. It is closing in on V1!👀

* Please read 2(i)(a) of pinned tweet about using the 60D VVOL metric for determining BTC cycle tops.

𝟯. 𝗨𝗦 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗶𝘁𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗣𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗣𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻 (>𝟬.𝟬𝟬𝟱𝟯)
𝗡𝗼

* Please read 2(ii)(e) of pinned tweet for details about this metric to determine BTC topping pattern & whether cycle peak is imminent.

𝟰𝗮. 𝗠𝗩𝗥𝗩-𝗭 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲 (>𝟳.𝟱): 𝗡𝗼

10/16: 2.6*
10/23: 2.4*

*This is similar to that when #BTC was on #CTM Wave 2 of the 2013 bull phase.

This metric went up to 3 on 10/20/21 coinciding when BTC broke its ATH. There is no question that BTC isn't in a bear phase.

𝟰𝗯. 𝗠𝗩𝗥𝗩-𝗭 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲 (𝟯𝟬-𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝗠𝗔) (𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝟱): 𝗬𝗲𝘀
This corresponds to that when #BTC is on #CTM Wave 2.

* BTC is on its way to its cycle peak.

𝟱.𝟭-𝗬𝗿+ 𝗛𝗢𝗟𝗗 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 (~𝟰𝟳%): 𝗡𝗼

10/16 & 10/23: 54%

𝟲𝗮. 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 (>𝟬.𝟬𝟮): 𝗡𝗼

10/16 & 10/23: 0.005*

The chart pattern is similar to that when #BTC was on #CTM Wave 2 of the 2013 bull phase.

𝟲𝗯. 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 (𝟯𝟬-𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝗠𝗔) (𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝟱): 𝗬𝗲𝘀
This corresponds to that when #BTC is on #CTM Wave 2.

* BTC is on its way to its cycle peak.

𝟳. 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝗛𝗢𝗗𝗟 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼 (𝗥𝗛𝗥) (>𝟰𝟬𝗞): 𝗡𝗼

10/16: 11185*
10/23: 13605*

* RHR is similar to that when #BTC was on #CTM Wave 2 of the 2013 & 2017 bull phases.

The chart pattern is similar to that in 2013.

𝟴. 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗮𝗽 𝗛𝗢𝗗𝗟 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲𝘀 (𝟯𝗿𝗱 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲):
𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝟭

* It looks like RC HODL Waves has entered Wave 2 of the 3-Wave pattern & this will be accompanied by the next leg up in #BTC's bull phase.

𝟵𝗮. 𝗣𝘂𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗠𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲 (>𝟰): 𝗡𝗼

10/16: 1.43
10/23: 1.52

𝟵𝗯. 𝗣𝘂𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲 (𝟯𝟬-𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝗠𝗔) (𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝟱): 𝗬𝗲𝘀

This corresponds to that when #BTC is on #CTM Wave 2.

* BTC is on its way to its cycle peak.

𝟭𝟬. 𝗡𝗨𝗣𝗟 (𝗕𝗹𝘂𝗲): 𝗡𝗼 𝗘𝘂𝗽𝗵𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗮

10/16: 0.64 (Green)*
10/23: 0.63 (Green)*

* This is similar to that when #BTC was on #CTM Wave 2 of the 2013 & 2017 bull phases.

The chart pattern is similar to that in 2013.

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More from @AllenAu11

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

20 Oct

A tale of 3 adjoined arcs

#BTC's price action rhymes in each cycle. Using chart patterns & log fib retracement, the current rally high, point of lift-off to the cycle peak & peak price are determined.

TLDR:
Current Rally high: ~$71K
Lift-off: ~$83K
Cycle Peak: ~$250K

1a/ It is found that in each cycle around this time of the year, #BTC price will form two adjoined arcs similar to a cup & handle pattern.

The height of the smaller arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the rally high, which is also called #CTM Wave 2 Peak.

1b/ The height of the larger arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the lift-off price level, from which #BTC will rally to its blow-off top.

BTC just broke out of the smaller arc. Thus, the current rally high is ~$71K. The lift-off price level is ~$83K.

Read 4 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

18 Oct

#BTC has been consolidating between $59K & $63K. Breaking ATH soon?

TLDR: Yes.
Revisit or even set new ATH ~10/31/21. Max. price for this rally is $70K-$73K
Why?
-Buy & Sell Oscillator & MRGO-14: Buy
-TI: Bullish
-Futures: Bullish w/ some selling
-Options: Bullish
-TA: Bullish

1/ MRGO-14 uses the difference in changes in #BTC's market & realized price to find buy/sell signals for BTC.

Green ➡️ Buy
Red ➡️ Sell

MGRO-14 has flipped green since 10/4/21.

2/ My #BTC Buy & Sell Oscillator has been >1 since 10/5/21.

Simple
Oscillator crosses above 1➡️Buy
Oscillator crosses below 1➡️Sell
Oscillator>2➡️Interim/cycle top

Advanced
Oscillator>1 &📈➡️Buy
Oscillator>1 &📉➡️Take profit
Oscillator<1 &📉➡️Short
Oscillator<1 &📈➡️Take profit

Read 13 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

17 Oct

Here is another example of on-chain data, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), showing similar patterns between #BTC's current cycle and that in 2013 right before & after the mid-cycle correction.

TLDR: BTC could break its ATH by early Nov. 2021.
Cycle peak price: $410K?

1/ #BTC's NUPL is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss. This metric is calculated by subtracting realized cap from market cap, and dividing the result by the market cap. It is a measure of BTC's market sentiment.

medium.com/@adamant_capit…

2a/ We can see that #BTC's NUPL chart shows a 5-wave pattern before & after the mid-cycle correction that is similar in the 2013 & 2021 bull phases.

NUPL Wave 2 ➡️ Mid-Cycle Low Price
NUPL Wave 5 ➡️ #CTM Wave 1 Low Price

Read 5 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

14 Oct

𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟰𝟬 '𝟮𝟭

Price Action Indicators (Fundamentals that affect BTC's price)

TLDR: 📈
1. Miner metrics- Bullish
2. Supply metrics- Bullish
3. Institution demand- Mod. Bullish
4. Network metrics- Bullish

𝟭. 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀
a(i) The hash rate for #BTC miners continues to recover after the China mining ban. This has caused a global reshuffle of BTC mining hash rate such that the US has now emerged as the global leader in BTC mining as per the latest report from CCAF.

1a(ii) Technically, the #BTC hash rate forms an ascending channel. It challenged the key resistance level at 177E, which is also near the top of the channel, but got rejected. It's since recovered & is again on a run to challenge the resistance. Bullish!

Read 15 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

13 Oct

𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟰𝟬 '𝟮𝟭

𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 (𝟭𝟭 this wk)

TLDR: BTC hasn't peaked or is in its bear phase.
The 30D MA metrics, RHODL, & NUPL indicate that BTC has exited #CTM Wave 1* low & onto Wave 2*.

*👇

𝟭𝗯. 𝗙𝗶𝗯 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.

BTC has neither peaked nor is it in a bear phase.

Read 15 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

13 Oct

The Pi Cycle Top indicator has been accurate in picking out #BTC's tops. If #BTC's cycle peak were to occur in Dec. 2021, would it work?

TLDR: No, unless BTC will perform way better than in past cycles from the mid-cycle correction low with a blow-off top >$500K in Dec. 2021.

1/ The Pi Cycle Top indicator has been accurate in picking the timing of #BTC's tops within +/- 3 days. It uses the 111-day simple moving average (111SMA) & the 350SMAx2 of BTC's price. When the 111SMA moves up and crosses the 350SMAx2, that is when BTC's price reaches a top.

2/ Assume #BTC will reach its cycle peak in December 2021, 3 past BTC price data sets scaled from the mid-cycle correction low are used to test if the Pi Cycle Top could pick out the peak in 2021.

a. 2013
b. 2017
b. Average of 2013 & 2017

Read 12 tweets

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