๐—–๐—ง๐—  #๐—•๐—ง๐—– ๐—ข๐—ป-๐—–๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐— ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ ๐——๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ: ๐—ช๐—ธ๐˜€ ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿญ & ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฎ '๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿญ

๐—ฃ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ธ ๐—œ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€

TLDR: BTC broke its ATH so it isn't in its bear phase as shown repeatedly here.

5 indicators show that BTC is on #CTM Wave 2 & on its way to its cycle peak.
๐Ÿญ ๐—•๐˜‚๐—น๐—น ๐—ฃ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐—ง๐—ผ๐—ฝ & ๐—•๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ ๐—ฃ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐—•๐—ผ๐˜๐˜๐—ผ๐—บ

๐Ÿญ๐—ฎ. ๐—ง๐—ผ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ฎ๐—ฝ ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—น
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking the peak & the bottom tracker is based on #BTC's moving average price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.
๐Ÿญ๐—ฏ. ๐—™๐—ถ๐—ฏ ๐— ๐˜‚๐—น๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.
๐Ÿฎ. ๐Ÿฒ๐Ÿฌ-๐——๐—ฎ๐˜† ๐—ฉ๐—ผ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜๐˜†: ๐—–๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ป๐˜๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐˜„๐—ป ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ? ๐—ก๐—ผ

When 60D VVOL crosses V2 again, #BTC is expected to peak within 60 days. It is closing in on V1!๐Ÿ‘€

* Please read 2(i)(a) of pinned tweet about using the 60D VVOL metric for determining BTC cycle tops.
๐Ÿฏ. ๐—จ๐—ฆ ๐—œ๐—ป๐˜€๐˜๐—ถ๐˜๐˜‚๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น #๐—•๐—ง๐—– ๐—ฃ๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐—ฃ๐—ฎ๐˜๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ป (>๐Ÿฌ.๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿฏ)
๐—ก๐—ผ

* Please read 2(ii)(e) of pinned tweet for details about this metric to determine BTC topping pattern & whether cycle peak is imminent.
๐Ÿฐ๐—ฎ. ๐— ๐—ฉ๐—ฅ๐—ฉ-๐—ญ ๐—ฆ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ (>๐Ÿณ.๐Ÿฑ): ๐—ก๐—ผ

10/16: 2.6*
10/23: 2.4*

*This is similar to that when #BTC was on #CTM Wave 2 of the 2013 bull phase.

This metric went up to 3 on 10/20/21 coinciding when BTC broke its ATH. There is no question that BTC isn't in a bear phase.
๐Ÿฐ๐—ฏ. ๐— ๐—ฉ๐—ฅ๐—ฉ-๐—ญ ๐—ฆ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ (๐Ÿฏ๐Ÿฌ-๐——๐—ฎ๐˜† ๐— ๐—”) (๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐Ÿฑ): ๐—ฌ๐—ฒ๐˜€
This corresponds to that when #BTC is on #CTM Wave 2.

* BTC is on its way to its cycle peak.
๐Ÿฑ.๐Ÿญ-๐—ฌ๐—ฟ+ ๐—›๐—ข๐—Ÿ๐—— ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ (~๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿณ%): ๐—ก๐—ผ

10/16 & 10/23: 54%
๐Ÿฒ๐—ฎ. ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ฅ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ธ (>๐Ÿฌ.๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ): ๐—ก๐—ผ

10/16 & 10/23: 0.005*

The chart pattern is similar to that when #BTC was on #CTM Wave 2 of the 2013 bull phase.
๐Ÿฒ๐—ฏ. ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ฅ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ธ (๐Ÿฏ๐Ÿฌ-๐——๐—ฎ๐˜† ๐— ๐—”) (๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐Ÿฑ): ๐—ฌ๐—ฒ๐˜€
This corresponds to that when #BTC is on #CTM Wave 2.

* BTC is on its way to its cycle peak.
๐Ÿณ. ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜‡๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—›๐—ข๐——๐—Ÿ ๐—ฅ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ (๐—ฅ๐—›๐—ฅ) (>๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฌ๐—ž): ๐—ก๐—ผ

10/16: 11185*
10/23: 13605*

* RHR is similar to that when #BTC was on #CTM Wave 2 of the 2013 & 2017 bull phases.

The chart pattern is similar to that in 2013.
๐Ÿด. ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜‡๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—–๐—ฎ๐—ฝ ๐—›๐—ข๐——๐—Ÿ ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€ (๐Ÿฏ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ):
๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐Ÿญ

* It looks like RC HODL Waves has entered Wave 2 of the 3-Wave pattern & this will be accompanied by the next leg up in #BTC's bull phase.
๐Ÿต๐—ฎ. ๐—ฃ๐˜‚๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น ๐— ๐˜‚๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ฒ (>๐Ÿฐ): ๐—ก๐—ผ

10/16: 1.43
10/23: 1.52
๐Ÿต๐—ฏ. ๐—ฃ๐˜‚๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น ๐— ๐˜‚๐—น๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ฒ (๐Ÿฏ๐Ÿฌ-๐——๐—ฎ๐˜† ๐— ๐—”) (๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐Ÿฑ): ๐—ฌ๐—ฒ๐˜€

This corresponds to that when #BTC is on #CTM Wave 2.

* BTC is on its way to its cycle peak.
๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฌ. ๐—ก๐—จ๐—ฃ๐—Ÿ (๐—•๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ): ๐—ก๐—ผ ๐—˜๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ต๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฎ

10/16: 0.64 (Green)*
10/23: 0.63 (Green)*

* This is similar to that when #BTC was on #CTM Wave 2 of the 2013 & 2017 bull phases.

The chart pattern is similar to that in 2013.

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More from @AllenAu11

20 Oct
A tale of 3 adjoined arcs

#BTC's price action rhymes in each cycle. Using chart patterns & log fib retracement, the current rally high, point of lift-off to the cycle peak & peak price are determined.

TLDR:
Current Rally high: ~$71K
Lift-off: ~$83K
Cycle Peak: ~$250K
1a/ It is found that in each cycle around this time of the year, #BTC price will form two adjoined arcs similar to a cup & handle pattern.

The height of the smaller arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the rally high, which is also called #CTM Wave 2 Peak.
1b/ The height of the larger arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the lift-off price level, from which #BTC will rally to its blow-off top.

BTC just broke out of the smaller arc. Thus, the current rally high is ~$71K. The lift-off price level is ~$83K.
Read 4 tweets
18 Oct
#BTC has been consolidating between $59K & $63K. Breaking ATH soon?

TLDR: Yes.
Revisit or even set new ATH ~10/31/21. Max. price for this rally is $70K-$73K
Why?
-Buy & Sell Oscillator & MRGO-14: Buy
-TI: Bullish
-Futures: Bullish w/ some selling
-Options: Bullish
-TA: Bullish
1/ MRGO-14 uses the difference in changes in #BTC's market & realized price to find buy/sell signals for BTC.

Green โžก๏ธ Buy
Red โžก๏ธ Sell

MGRO-14 has flipped green since 10/4/21. Image
2/ My #BTC Buy & Sell Oscillator has been >1 since 10/5/21.

Simple
Oscillator crosses above 1โžก๏ธBuy
Oscillator crosses below 1โžก๏ธSell
Oscillator>2โžก๏ธInterim/cycle top

Advanced
Oscillator>1 &๐Ÿ“ˆโžก๏ธBuy
Oscillator>1 &๐Ÿ“‰โžก๏ธTake profit
Oscillator<1 &๐Ÿ“‰โžก๏ธShort
Oscillator<1 &๐Ÿ“ˆโžก๏ธTake profit Image
Read 13 tweets
17 Oct
Here is another example of on-chain data, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), showing similar patterns between #BTC's current cycle and that in 2013 right before & after the mid-cycle correction.

TLDR: BTC could break its ATH by early Nov. 2021.
Cycle peak price: $410K? Image
1/ #BTC's NUPL is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss. This metric is calculated by subtracting realized cap from market cap, and dividing the result by the market cap. It is a measure of BTC's market sentiment.

medium.com/@adamant_capitโ€ฆ
2a/ We can see that #BTC's NUPL chart shows a 5-wave pattern before & after the mid-cycle correction that is similar in the 2013 & 2021 bull phases.

NUPL Wave 2 โžก๏ธ Mid-Cycle Low Price
NUPL Wave 5 โžก๏ธ #CTM Wave 1 Low Price
Read 5 tweets
14 Oct
๐—–๐—ง๐—  #๐—•๐—ง๐—– ๐—ข๐—ป-๐—–๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐— ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ ๐——๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ: ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฌ '๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿญ

Price Action Indicators (Fundamentals that affect BTC's price)

TLDR: ๐Ÿ“ˆ
1. Miner metrics- Bullish
2. Supply metrics- Bullish
3. Institution demand- Mod. Bullish
4. Network metrics- Bullish
๐Ÿญ. ๐— ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐— ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐˜€
a(i) The hash rate for #BTC miners continues to recover after the China mining ban. This has caused a global reshuffle of BTC mining hash rate such that the US has now emerged as the global leader in BTC mining as per the latest report from CCAF.
1a(ii) Technically, the #BTC hash rate forms an ascending channel. It challenged the key resistance level at 177E, which is also near the top of the channel, but got rejected. It's since recovered & is again on a run to challenge the resistance. Bullish!
Read 15 tweets
13 Oct
๐—–๐—ง๐—  #๐—•๐—ง๐—– ๐—ข๐—ป-๐—–๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐— ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ ๐——๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ: ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฌ '๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿญ

๐—ฃ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ธ ๐—œ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€ (๐Ÿญ๐Ÿญ this wk)

TLDR: BTC hasn't peaked or is in its bear phase.
The 30D MA metrics, RHODL, & NUPL indicate that BTC has exited #CTM Wave 1* low & onto Wave 2*.

*๐Ÿ‘‡
๐Ÿญ ๐—•๐˜‚๐—น๐—น ๐—ฃ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐—ง๐—ผ๐—ฝ & ๐—•๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ ๐—ฃ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐—•๐—ผ๐˜๐˜๐—ผ๐—บ

๐Ÿญ๐—ฎ. ๐—ง๐—ผ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ฎ๐—ฝ ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—น
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking the peak & the bottom tracker is based on #BTC's moving average price.

BTC has neither peaked nor is it in a bear phase.
๐Ÿญ๐—ฏ. ๐—™๐—ถ๐—ฏ ๐— ๐˜‚๐—น๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.

BTC has neither peaked nor is it in a bear phase.
Read 15 tweets
13 Oct
The Pi Cycle Top indicator has been accurate in picking out #BTC's tops. If #BTC's cycle peak were to occur in Dec. 2021, would it work?

TLDR: No, unless BTC will perform way better than in past cycles from the mid-cycle correction low with a blow-off top >$500K in Dec. 2021. Image
1/ The Pi Cycle Top indicator has been accurate in picking the timing of #BTC's tops within +/- 3 days. It uses the 111-day simple moving average (111SMA) & the 350SMAx2 of BTC's price. When the 111SMA moves up and crosses the 350SMAx2, that is when BTC's price reaches a top.
2/ Assume #BTC will reach its cycle peak in December 2021, 3 past BTC price data sets scaled from the mid-cycle correction low are used to test if the Pi Cycle Top could pick out the peak in 2021.

a. 2013
b. 2017
b. Average of 2013 & 2017
Read 12 tweets

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