๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ

Global Macro Review - October 2021

1/15

Crude ๐Ÿš€ along with domestic equities as vol โ†˜๏ธ

The 10/2 curve โ†—๏ธ then โ†˜๏ธ sharply with short-end ๐Ÿš€

Grains โ†—๏ธ with ๐ŸŒฝ &๐ŸŒพ๐Ÿ’ช๐Ÿผ

AUD ๐Ÿฆ˜๐Ÿ”บ and JPY ๐Ÿˆน ๐Ÿ”ป

Letโ€™s dig in to the ๐Ÿงฎ!
2/15

Commodities led the #inflation trade higher with the $CRB +3.83% and a new cycle high.
3/15

๐Ÿ›ข and โ›ฝ๏ธ ๐Ÿš€ to new cycle highs while Natty ๐Ÿช“ at 6.47

$WTIC 83.57 +11.38%
$BRENT 84.38 +7.46%
$GASO 2.37 +8.22%
$NATGAS 5.43 -7.52%

Chart: $WTIC +11.38% for October is up 72% in 2021
3a/15

$NATGAS -7.52% found resistance at the February 2014 ๐Ÿ” and โ†˜๏ธ

The question remains, does Natty have ๐Ÿฆต๐Ÿฆต to break thru?

Chart: 10-year chart of $NATGAS
4/15

SILVER led metals higher in October but along with the others remains ๐Ÿป trend (3-month price momentum)

$SILVER 23.95 +8.62%
$COPPER 4.37 +6.85%
$PLAT 1021 +6.06%
$GOLD 1784 +1.53%

Chart: COPPER thwarted at 4.82 and is now -2.46% over (T) duration
5/15

Grains with a โ†”๏ธ performance, but only $SOYB remains ๐Ÿป trend

$WHEAT 773 +6.51%
$CORN 568 +5.87%
$SOYB 1249 -0.52%
$SUGAR 19.29 -2.82%

Chart: $CORN ๐ŸŒฝ is +4.22% over (T) duration โ™‰๏ธ
6/15

UST yields were a tale of two durations as the 10/2 curve ๐Ÿ” at 129 BPS on 10/08 and ๐Ÿฅž the balance of the month to close at 106 BPS

2Y .501 +21.9 bps
5Y 1.185 +20.5 bps
10Y 1.561 +5.8 bps
30Y 1.939 -12.4 bps

Chart: $IVOL -1.53% as the ๐Ÿป steepener trade failed ๐Ÿ˜ฐ
6a/15

The MOVE 75.45 +14.38 points on the month, suggesting a nervous and hedge bond market coming into #FOMC and #NFP this week.

Chart: YTD MOVE index matching the February high
7/15

Convertibles and long duration bond ETFs โ†—๏ธ on the month

CWB +3.08%
TLT +2.34%
TIP +0.77%
LQD +0.34%
BND -0.08%
IEF -0.51%
HYG -0.64%
IVOL -1.53%

Chart: CWB a TSLA beneficiary
8/15

Major #fx currencies showed some vol towards month end, as AUS EUR CAN all indicated the end of QE or outright โ†—๏ธ rates.

$USD 94.12 -0.13%%
$GBP 1.369 +1.63%
$EUR 1.156 -0.17%
$AUD 0.752 +4.01%
$USDCHF 0.915 -1.82%
$USCAD 1.238 -2.37%
$USDJPY 113.99 +2.44%

Chart: $FXA ๐Ÿš€
9/15

Volatility drained โ†˜๏ธ as equity investors remained โ™‰๏ธ - not sharing the ๐Ÿ˜ฑ of bond traders

$VIX 16.26 -6.89 pts
$VXN 19.64 -7.01 pts
$RVX 22.08 -6.81 pts
$VXEEM 20.19 -8.70 pts

Chart: $VIX remains ๐Ÿป and near cycle lows
10/15

Fueled by the decline in long duration bonds, large growth lead US equities โ†—๏ธ โ™‰๏ธ

$COMPQ 15498 +7.27% ATH
$SPX 4605 +6.91% ATH
$IWM 228 +4.25%

Chart: $COMPQ +5.63% over (T) duration and +20.25% YTD
11/15

Top US sectors:
XLY +12.09%
XLE +10.33%
XLK +8.18%
XLB +7.6%
XLRE +7.58%

Negative alpha
XLC +0.24%
XLP +3.5%
XLU +4.74%

Chart: Tesla was the ๐Ÿ”ฅ behind the out performance of $XLY
12/15

It was a โ†”๏ธ bag in major internatโ€™l market indices

$CAC 6830 +4.76%
$HSI 25377 +3.26%
$DAX 15689 +2.81%
$SSEC 3547 -0.58%
$NIKK 28893 -1.9%
$KOSPI 2971 -3.2%

Chart: $KOSPI remains ๐Ÿป (t) -1.61% and (T) -7.23% and has been a great short
13/15

Top performing country ETFs
IDX +8.62% ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ
EWC +7.84% ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ
NOR +6.84% ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด
EWD +6.82% ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช

Worst performers
EWZ -8.75% ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท
EWJ -2.63% ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต
EWY -1.45%% ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท

Chart: $IDX +8.68% (t) and +14.75% (T) โ™‰๏ธ โ™‰๏ธ
14/15

So, as we ๐Ÿ‘€ ahead to November, you need not look far to see what stands in the way of this #reflation trade.

#FOMC on Wednesday and #NFP on Friday.

The big โ“

Will the #FOMC do its job to โ†˜๏ธ #inflation, as we clearly are at full employment
15/15

The bond market sees rates โ†—๏ธ and future #growth and #inflation โ†˜๏ธ - hence the ๐Ÿฅž curve and the โ†—๏ธ MOVE

Equity investors showing no ๐Ÿ˜ฑ with VIX 16

Letโ€™s see what unfolds.

Meanwhile have a great ๐ŸŽƒ!

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @tdarling1

29 Oct
Hello Friday and the last trading day of October!

MTD returns
$WTIC +10.37%
$CORN +4.84%
$CRB +4.17%
$COPPER +3.07%

$GOLD +2.60%
$USD -0.97%

$COMPQ +6.92%
$SPX +6.71%
$CAC +4.36%
$DAX +2.85%
$KOSPI -1.93%
$VIX 16.53 -661 BPS

$UST2Y +22 BPS
$UST10Y +5 BPS

Let's dig into ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia closed โ†”๏ธ on the day #dispersion

$NIKK 28893 +0.25% ๐Ÿ”บ
$SSEC 3547 +0.8% ๐Ÿ”บ
$IDX 6591 +1.05% ๐Ÿ”บ

$TWII 16897 -0.3% ๐Ÿ”ป
$HSI 25377 -0.7% ๐Ÿ”ป
$KOSPI 2971 -1.3% ๐Ÿ”ป

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 7324 -1.45%

India โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 59124 -1.4%
Europe decidedly โ†˜๏ธ

$DAX 15570 -0.75%
$FTSE 7230 -0.25%
$CAC 6782 -0.35%
$AEX 805 -0.95%
$IBEX 9023 -0.05%
$MIB 26803 -0.3%
$SMI 12081 -0.6%
$MOEX 4150 -0.95% ๐Ÿช†
Read 10 tweets
27 Sep
Hello, Monday!

๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ and โ›ฝ๏ธ looking ๐Ÿ”ฅ

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ
Asia closed โ†”๏ธ

$NIKK 30240 -0.05% โ™‰๏ธ
$SSEC 3583 -0.85%
$TWII 17314 +0.3%
$HSI 24187 unch
$KOSPI 3234 +0.3% ๐Ÿป

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7384 +0.6%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 60135 +0.15%
European bourses opening โ†—๏ธ

$DAX 15665 +0.85%
$FTSE 7074 +0.3%
$CAC 6679 +0.6%
$AEX 793 +0.2%
$IBEX 8935 +0.7%
$MIB 26075 +0.4%
$SMI 11824 +0.05%
$MOEX 4073 +0.85% ๐Ÿช†
Read 12 tweets
26 Sep
Global macro review 09/26/21

1/10

What a week!
$VIX ๐Ÿš€ to 28.79 on ever grand ๐Ÿ˜ฑ only to โ†˜๏ธ into FOMC, closing 17.75 โ†˜๏ธ

$RVX 24.61 -6.9%
$VXN - 20.93 -6.02%
$VXEEM 23.93 +23.93 ๐Ÿ‘โ€๐Ÿ—จ

Chart: $VIX put in a new high only to crash -38% leaving Monday put buyers with a ๐Ÿ’ผ of ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ
2/10

Despite (or maybe because of) the volatility, US equities closed higher on the week

$SPX +0.51% (w) -1.2% (t) +4.08% (T) โ™‰๏ธ
$COMPQ +0.02% (w) -0.54% (t) +4.79% (T) โ™‰๏ธ
$IWM +0.26% (w) -1.48% (t) -3.97% (T) ๐Ÿป

Chart: $SPX โ†˜๏ธ 5.3% before retracing +3.5% off the Monday low
3/10

Energy and financials led US sectors โ†—๏ธ
$XLE +3.2%
$XLF +1.7%
$XLK +0.79%

REITs, utes, and staples lagged
$XLRE -2.01%
$XLU -1.90%
$XLP -1.04%

Chart: XLE forming a base off July 19 and Aug 19 lows, โ™‰๏ธ trade +3.2% but still ๐Ÿป Trend -8.0%.
Read 13 tweets
24 Sep
Hello Friday!

What a week! ๐ŸŽข

But you'd never know it from the average of things

Week to date score board
$SPX +0.36%
$USD -0.16%
$WTIC +2.06%
$COPPER -0.35%
$GOLD -0.09%
$TNX +2.92%
$VIX -10.48% <<

Let's dig into the early morning ๐Ÿงฎ
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต is ichiban ๐Ÿฅ‡ into the Asian close โ†”๏ธ

$NIKK 30249 +2.05% ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต
$SSEC 3613 -0.8%
$TWII 17260 +1.05%
$HSI 24130 -1.55% ๐Ÿ”ป
$KOSPI 3125 -0.05%
$IDX 6145 +0.05%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
7343 -0.35%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 50962 +0.15%
After a nice ๐ŸŽ‰ that saw $FEZ +1.75% for the week, Europe is trading โ†˜๏ธ at the open

$DAX 7045 -0.9%
$FTSE 7045 -0.45%
$CAC 6629 -1.05%
$AEX 793 -0.95%
$IBEX 8837 -0.45%
$MIB 25942 -0.55%
$SMI 11837 -0.85%
$MOEX 4039 -0.35%
Read 10 tweets
20 Sep
Welcome to ever grand Monday where the sky is red and so if your long book.

Let's dig into the good, the grand, and the #fugly
Shanghai showing no signs of stress but $HSI โ†˜๏ธ

$NIKK 30500 +0.6%
$SSEC 3614 +0.2%
$TWII 12277 unch
$HSI 24077 -3.4%
$KOSPI 3141 +0.35%
$IDX 6076 -0.9%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 7248 -2.1%

India โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 58891 -0.2%
European bourses โ†˜๏ธโ†˜๏ธ

$DAX 15163 -2.1%
$CAC 6428 -2.2%
$FTSE 6865 -1.4%
$AEX 778 -1.4%
$IBEX 8577 -2.1%
$MIB 25149 -2.2%
$SMI 11781 -1.3%
$MOEX 3985 -1.2%
Read 13 tweets
19 Sep
Global Macro Review 09/19/2021

1/13

#OPEX did not disappoint.

Volatility โ†—๏ธ, SPX sold โ†˜๏ธ, and the USD โ†—๏ธ for the 2nd week in a row, causing damage to EU and EM longs.

Letโ€™s dig in to the damage done and opportunities ahead

(Please retweet โค๏ธ)
2/13

After coming in early in the week, equity vol (especially VIX) accelerated into OPEX, but ended โ†˜๏ธ for the week

$VIX 20.81 -0.67%
$VXN 22.27 -2.11%
$RVX 26.43 -6.57
$VXEEM 24.26 +3.03%

Chart: $VIX weekly +0.53% on a (T) duration (3-months) and finding resistance
3/13

True to #OPEX form $SPX closed โ†˜๏ธ for the second week in a row taking $COMPQ with it while $IWM eked out small gain

$SPX 4433 -0.57% โ™‰๏ธ
$COMPQ 14054 -0.47% โ™‰๏ธ
$IWM 222.48 +0.39% (N) where N = neutral trend

Chart: $SPX -2.6% into #OPEX on volume, as it has for past 4 mos
Read 14 tweets

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