Tweet

Ted Darling

20 Sep, 13 tweets, 2 min read

Welcome to ever grand Monday where the sky is red and so if your long book.

Let's dig into the good, the grand, and the #fugly

Shanghai showing no signs of stress but $HSI ↘️

$NIKK 30500 +0.6%
$SSEC 3614 +0.2%
$TWII 12277 unch
$HSI 24077 -3.4%
$KOSPI 3141 +0.35%
$IDX 6076 -0.9%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7248 -2.1%

India ↘️
$BSE 58891 -0.2%

European bourses ↘️↘️

$DAX 15163 -2.1%
$CAC 6428 -2.2%
$FTSE 6865 -1.4%
$AEX 778 -1.4%
$IBEX 8577 -2.1%
$MIB 25149 -2.2%
$SMI 11781 -1.3%
$MOEX 3985 -1.2%

🇺🇸 futures bright 🔴 ↘️

$ES 4382 -1.15%
$NQ 15193 -0.9%
$RTY 2200 -1.5%

$VIX 25.14 🔺🔺🔺

GOLD catching a bid ↗️ as yields fall on #riskoff

$GOLD 1755 +0.2%
$SILVER 22.46 +0.55%
$COPPER 4.154 -2.2%
$PLAT 1968 -0.8%
$PALL 1968 -0.8%
$ALI 2883 +0.4%
$ZINC 3032 -1.2%

Hydrocarbons ↘️

$WTIC 70.59 -1.7%
$BRENT 74.28 -1.4%
$NATGAS 5.014 -1.8%
$GASO 2.139 -1.5%

Grains ↘️

$WHEAT 703 -0.65%
$CORN 520 -1.2%
$SOYB 1272 -0.9%
$SUGAR 18.99 -0.9%

USD ↗️ with BTC ↘️↘️↘️

$USD 93.345 +0.2%
$EUR 1.171 -0.1%
$GBP 1.368 -0.45%
$AUD .7239 -0.35%
$USDJPY 109.67 -0.25%
$USDCHF .9316 -0.1%
$USDCAD 1.2806 +0.3%
$USDRUB 73.4128 +0.75%

$BTC 45088 -6.6%

UST yields ↘️ with 10/2s to 111.4 BPS

2Y ,22
5Y .841
10Y 1.334
30Y 1.87

Global 10Y mostly ↘️
JPN 0.059 🔺
CAN 1.282 🔺

Sometimes when you #BTFD, it's oh so grand.

Today, you wake up to ever grand 🐻

Fade your feelings and step up to the plate ⚾️🏏

Have a super profitable 💰 day - no, make it ever grand, Monday!

UPDATE: my mistake - NIKK SSEC KOSPI closed for holiday. Ever grand to come tomorrow

CNBC cranking out scary headlines this morning. Latest one is $BTC -10%.

Expecting a massive 😱🤮 at the open...

More scary shit from CNBC now by email.

Mikey Mike from $MS!

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More from @tdarling1

Ted Darling

@tdarling1

19 Sep

Global Macro Review 09/19/2021

1/13

#OPEX did not disappoint.

Volatility ↗️, SPX sold ↘️, and the USD ↗️ for the 2nd week in a row, causing damage to EU and EM longs.

Let’s dig in to the damage done and opportunities ahead

(Please retweet ❤️)

2/13

After coming in early in the week, equity vol (especially VIX) accelerated into OPEX, but ended ↘️ for the week

$VIX 20.81 -0.67%
$VXN 22.27 -2.11%
$RVX 26.43 -6.57
$VXEEM 24.26 +3.03%

Chart: $VIX weekly +0.53% on a (T) duration (3-months) and finding resistance

3/13

True to #OPEX form $SPX closed ↘️ for the second week in a row taking $COMPQ with it while $IWM eked out small gain

$SPX 4433 -0.57% ♉️
$COMPQ 14054 -0.47% ♉️
$IWM 222.48 +0.39% (N) where N = neutral trend

Chart: $SPX -2.6% into #OPEX on volume, as it has for past 4 mos

Read 14 tweets

Ted Darling

@tdarling1

17 Sep

Hello #opex Friday!

Quick recap of drivers in Global Macro WTD
$SPX +0.34%
$VIX 18.69 -10.79%
$USD 92.92 +0.36%
$WTIC 72.61 +4.15%
$TNX 1.331 -0.75%
$GOLD 1757 -1.98%
$DAX 15652 +0.27%

So, overall risk assets have fared well ↗️

Let's dig into the early morning data!

After a week that saw weakness in HSI -5.87% and SSEC -2.59%, Asian equities closed ↗️ on the day

$NIKK 30500 +0.6%
$SSEC 3614 +0.2%
$TWII 12277 unch
$HSI 24882 +0.9%
$KOSPI 3141 +0.3%
$IDX 6133 +0.4%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7404 -0.75%

India ↗️
$BSE 59262 +0.2%

Europe building ↗️ on Thursday's gains

$DAX 15713 +0.4%
$FTSE 7046 +0.25%
$CAC 6683 +0.9%
$AEX 803 +0.6%
$IBEX 8624 +1.15%
$MIB 26122 +0.6%
$SMI 12066 +0.3%
$MOEX 4044 unch

Read 10 tweets

Ted Darling

@tdarling1

1 Aug

Global macro review

1/14

It’s a new month! 🐰 🐰

Let’s look back on July for positioning clues ahead

Notables:
$GLD ♉️
$TLT ♉️
$FXF ♉️
$CORN 🐻
$SILVER 🐻
$EEM 🐻
$DAX and $XLE teetering on 🐻

2/14

The UST curve flattened in July with 10/2s to 103.8 BPS. MOVE 61.19 +5.01%

2Y .188 -24.5%
5Y .694 -20.69%
10Y 1.226 -15.10%
30Y 1.895 -1.46%

Chart: $TNX peaked in March at 1.765% and since rolled over

3/14

Bond ETFs ↗️ with curve flattening

$TLT +3.72%
$TIP +2.68%
$IVOL +2.52%
$IEF +1.99%
$BNDX +1.49%
$LQD +1.42%
$BND +1.17%
$HYG +-0.1%

Chart: Convertibles bucked the trend with $CWB -1.07%

Read 16 tweets

Ted Darling

@tdarling1

30 Jul

Hello, Friday and the last trading day of July!

Risk assets under pressure 🟥 this morning, but with JPOW support, it's been a good week to date:

COPPER +2.8%
GOLD +1.9%
WHEAT +3.1%
WTIC +2.15%
XLE +3.15%
XME +8.0%

Let's dig into the early morning data!

Asia closed ↘️🟥

$NIKK 27284 -1.8%
$SSEC 3397 -0.4%
$TWII 17247 -0.9%
$HSI 25908 -1.3%
$KOSPI 3202 -1.25%
$IDX 6070 -0.8%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7393 -0.4%

India ↗️
$BSE 52813 +0.3% <<

Europe under pressure ↘️

$DAX 15514 -0.8%
$FTSE 7035 -0.6%
$CAC 6635 unch
$AEX 756 -0.3%
$IBEX 8741 -0.5%
$MIB 25486 -0.1%
$SMI 12071 -0.1%
$MOEX 3786 -0.5%

Read 10 tweets

Ted Darling

@tdarling1

29 Jul

Hello Thursday!

You avoided the 🐫 because JPOW skirted his mandate. #Inflation? 🪛 it. Let is run 🔥

You know what to do.
Short USD. Long CRB & GOLD.

Let's dig into the morning data!

Asia bounced off oversold levels ↗️

$NIKK 27784 +0.7%
$SSEC 3412 +1.5%
$TWII 17403 +1.55%
$HSI 26244 +3.25%
$KOSPI 3243 +0.2%
$IDX 6121 +0.5%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7417 +0.5%

India ↗️
$BSE 52698 +0.5%

Europe trading ↗️ with stronger Euro

$DAX 15601 +0.2%
$FTSE 7067 +0.7%
$CAC 6656 +0.7%
$AEX 753 +0.7%
$IBEX 8796 +0.7%
$MIB 25401 +0.55%
$SMI 12084 +0.1%
$MOEX 3800 +0.5%

Read 10 tweets

Ted Darling

@tdarling1

28 Jul

Hello hump 🐫 day!

A little bit of mean reversion with the #FOMC decision due at 2PMEST is the perfect set up for the 🐫

Let's dig into the overnight data!

Asia ↔️ but mostly ↘️

$NIKK 27582 -1.4%
$SSEC 3362 -0.6%
$TWII 17135 -0.8%
$HSI 25421 +1.45% 🇭🇰
$KOSPI 3237 +0.1%
$IDX 6089 -0.15%

Australia ↘️
7379 -0.7%

India ↘️
$BSE 52424 -0.3%

Europe ↗️ after a day that saw $AEX ↘️ -1.0%

$DAX 15557 +0.25%
$FTSE 7013 +0.25%
$CAC 6576 +0.7%
$AEX 743 +0.7%
$IBEX 8747 +0.6%
$SMI 12064 +0.35%
$MOEX 3754 +0.55%

Read 10 tweets

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