Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #growth

Most recents (24)

What are the implications of excess global financial market volatility on economic growth? Are there threshold effects in the relationship between growth & excess global volatility for individual countries? How should we model the nonlinear effects in a multi-country setting? 1/n
We answer these questions in recent work with Alexander Chudik @DallasFed, M Hashem Pesaran @USCDornsife @TrinCollCam, @mraissi80 @IMFNews & @arebucci1 @JHUCarey @cepr_org @nberpubs: ideas.repec.org/p/cam/camdae/2… #TGVAR 2/n
The #Covid19 #pandemic has been a shock like no other, initiating simultaneous demand and supply disruptions. In addition, it led to a sharp tightening in global #financial market conditions during the first quarter of 2020. 3/n Image
Read 23 tweets
In a recent paper, with Alexander Chudik @DallasFed, M Hashem Pesaran @USCDornsife, @mraissi80 @IMFNews & @arebucci1 @JHUCarey, we develop a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (#TGVAR) to quantify the #macroeconomic effects of #Covid19: econ.cam.ac.uk/research/cwpe-… 1/n Image
Key challenges with the empirical #economic analysis of #Covid19 include the following: how to identify the shock, how to account for its non-linear effects, & how to quantify its effects while accounting for spillovers, common global factors, network effects and uncertainty. 2/n
We contribute to the literature by addressing these issues in a coherent multi-country framework. We offer an identification strategy for the #Covid19 shock considering that a synthetic control method cannot be applied in the context of a global #pandemic. 3/n
Read 23 tweets
1/x A great study:

#Predicting #Infectious #SARSCOV2 From [PCR] #Diagnostic #Samples

FYI only @carlheneghan

Quoting,

“ Methods
...#RT_PCR_confirmed #positive samples’ ...ability to infect Vero cell lines [was determined].” >

academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…
2/x con’t

“...90 #RT_PCR #positive #samples were #incubated on Vero cells

26 samples (ie 26/90= 28.9%)
demonstrated viral growth

[Inserted:
#NOT 100.0% !]

...There was #NO [viral] growth in samples with a [cycle threshold] Ct > 24
or
[symptom onset to test] STT > 8 days.” >
3/x con’t

“Conclusions
SARS-CoV-2 Vero cell infectivity was #ONLY observed for RT-PCR Ct<24 and STT < 8 days.

Infectivity of patients with Ct>24 and duration of symptoms > 8 days may be #LOW.

This info can inform public health policy and guide clinical, #INFECTION_CONTROL..” >
Read 9 tweets
Growth hacking 101

Identify the North Star 🌟

For Airbnb it's # of nights booked
For Ubereats # number of orders placed

Then define the KPIs to back the North Star 🌟
- User acquisition
- Retention
- Revenue
- etc

#GrowthHacking #100DaysOfCode #Entrepreneurship #business
Define themes to reduce redundant decision making

Example Theme: Improve Registration Flow

Actions:
- Add Google Auth
- Add Facebook Auth
- Print sign up form upon visit.

#Growth #GrowthHacking #100DaysOfCode
#business
Sort the themed actions into time zones such as current, near term and future.

Implement tests and analyze the results with defined KPIs

- Double down on the tactics that are working
- Discard the tactics that aren't working

#Growth #GrowthHacking #100DaysOfCode
#business
Read 3 tweets
'Pulling #consumption forward' is an unhelpful euphemism for 'engaging in #capital consumption': more graphically, 'writing cheques the people can't cash'.
Self-sustaining #growth requires coherence between consumption & production not just today, but over time.
1/x #centralbanks
That latter is difficult enough to achieve without #centralbankers & policy-makers in general trying to impose their own vision of the balance (one always narrowly biased to the present) on a system composed of billions of interacting needs & preferences.
2/x
#bankofenfgland
The unavoidable (Rumsfeldian) uncertainty -as well as the calculable risks- is made much greater when every fluctuation today -itself a direct result of IN-coherence, largely inflicted from above- is greeted with yet another blunt-force trauma assault on the capital structure
3/x
Read 9 tweets
The #FOMC today began the process of “operationalizing” the average inflation targeting framework that Chair #Powell first laid out in his Jackson Hole, WY, Economic Policy Conference speech: including new guidance on how long #policy rates can be expected to remain near zero.
Specifically, policy #rates will remain at current levels “until #labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum #employment and #inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.”
Still, we’re skeptical about the achievability of this #inflation goal when the #disinflationary influences of technological #innovation and the #demographic trend of #population aging arguably hold a greater impact on the rate of inflation than central bank #policy does.
Read 6 tweets
A tremendous amount of ink has been spilled discussing the supposed quandary of the #equity market’s robust recovery since March, while at the same time #economic improvement has been more uneven and uncertain.
At the heart of this misunderstanding is an apples-to-oranges comparison: the fact is that the #stock #market and the #economy, while connected, are two meaningfully distinct entities.
As a case in point, the correlation between domestic corporate #profits and #GDP #growth collapsed in the 1990s and has hovered near zero for the past three decades. Image
Read 7 tweets
📢𝗦𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘁!

We are thrilled to announce our new series #Tech4India as part of the #ETI in partnership with #NESTMEA @MEAIndia & @PrinSciAdvOff

Stay tuned for:

🔸Info on key #emerging technologies & sectors 📡🧬🚀⚛️ 🤖

🔸Details on participation in the #ETI Image
#Tech4India

Recent advances in 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗺 𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗵 can bring paradigm shifts in #computing #communication & #cryptography affecting all sectors in the process

Participate in #ETI & help India prepare for the #QuantumRevolution 2.0⚛️

ℹ️thesciencepolicyforum.org/initiatives/et…

#NESTMEA
1/2 Image
#Tech4India

We encourage people from varied backgrounds to form multidisciplinary teams and send us EoI on innovations like #QuantumComputing #QuantumCommunication & #QuantumNetworks

Selected teams will be invited to prepare a consolidated tech dev & adoption roadmap 4 🇮🇳
2/2
Read 15 tweets
Encouragingly, this morning’s #JobsReport witnessed not only solid job gains, with 1.37 million #jobs added, but also a drop in the #unemployment rate to single digits, at 8.4%, which is a psychologically meaningful threshold to breach.
Still, great perspective is required when situating this #data in proper context. The #unemployment rate is still resting too close to double digits, and many #businesses will not recover their footing for years to come, if ever.
Additionally, the sectors of the #economy that were responsible for much of the past decade’s #job gains (travel, #leisure and entertainment) will be slower to come back and may be years away from recovering.
Read 4 tweets
1-Today we shall continue to dive deeper into the aspects of #Past #Life #Astrology.

And the very first word that comes to mind is #Karma.

#Karma is actually a poorly understood term.

Most people think of Karma and might think of punishment and retribution. (1/25)
2-The fact is Karma is like a #Cosmic, ongoing, Instruction Design of God.

Karma is rather concerned with #Evolution and #Growth.

@BabaRamDass used to often say, “May be the #Law of #Karma itself is #God” (2/25)

#PastLifeAstrology.
3-Just like Ether, Karma is all-embracing and has a myriad of #Manifestations

The #Cosmos operates at different levels of #Karma –from Personal Karma to the Karma of entire nations or communities. (3/25)

#KarmicAstrology.
Read 25 tweets
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @cnbcKaren for having me on the show this morning.

Here's a short thread of the notes - entitled, "Time to Get Real?" - which I put together in preparation.
They should hopefully be self-explanatory:-

#SquawkBox #CNBC #macro #equities #commodities
You've heard it here before: pay out or pay down is a big part of the #inflation equation:-
Yes, there's a "V" - or at least a flipped square root sign - underway, but will it extend far enough & fast enough?
Read 11 tweets
Catch our Director Dr @laveeshbhandari interact with young, budding economists and share about our initiatives on creating a sustainable and inclusive world! @UNCTAD @yahindiadelhi @aashima_arora_ @NikkhilKalia
Register: tinyurl.com/y5q9qrh2 ImageImageImage
"#Economic #Growth is leading to a fall in #employment for women due to a structural shift in the #economy. Due to technological advancement - demand for agri labourers, most of whom are women working on small family farms is reduced." -@laveeshbhandari (1/11)
@Ajayvirjakhar
"I am not saying it is right. Fall in demand is for all landless labourers, who are generally unskilled and not just women." - @laveeshbhandari (2/11) Read more: tinyurl.com/yxak6ds3 @narendramodi @thegwpfcom @JoeAgneya @alindaMjan @anshuman1tiwari @capt_amarinder @smritiirani
Read 12 tweets
As we move to the new academic year, our focus @councilofdeans continues to be on ensuring high quality education outcomes for #healthcare students. This is in the context of government priorities for growth, a pandemic and winter pressures.
Five key asks we are discussing with ministers and wider university sector colleagues this week:
1. Capital investment in university infrastructure, digital innovation and academic staffing to include joint posts between academia and service.
2. Regulatory flexibility around hours and stronger focus on education outcomes. Short term plan: focus on simulation and examples of best practice. Long term plan: tranform education from hours and process to competence and outcomes.
Read 9 tweets
Valuation: It’s a contested issue in the market. Are stocks as divorced from fundamentals as many say? This chart shows that’s a fair point. While the #SPX is up 50% from the low, the NTM P/E multiple has almost doubled. Image
But, in my view, the bearish P/E argument misses something important: At bottoms, price usually leads #earnings. So there are going to be periods where price goes up while earnings still go down which, mathematically, leads to a rising P/E ratio.
The same thing happened in 2009 after the GFC bottom. Look: an analog of the inflation-adjusted #SP500 index now & back then. Bottom panel: Earnings as measured from the price low—not the earnings low. Back in ’09, EPS fell another 5% after the #SPX bottomed on March 9. Image
Read 12 tweets
I’ve now finished my reading on 🇹🇼 🇯🇵 🇨🇳 🇰🇷

What have I learnt?

Growth & urbanisation erode gender inequalities

Militant activism fosters feminist activism, eg SK vs J

Long work days may be key to economic catch-up but (absent affordable childcare) reinforce gender pay gaps.
If asked to predict the next 20 years:

🇹🇼 is in a positive feedback loop & will converge with Europe

🇰🇷 feminist activism will enable more gains, eg on GBV & family policy

🇨🇳‘s gender pay gap will fall with growth, tho crackdowns on activism curb rights

🇯🇵 seems quite trapped
So on the global gender rankings, I expect:

🇯🇵 to fall down - due to long work days, gender pay gaps, weak civil society, minimal activism.

🇨🇳 will reverse its recent descent, economically

🇰🇷 should go up, no longer on par with 🇯🇵

🇹🇼 might be top 15.
Read 14 tweets
.@PikaGoldin was right! FLFP has a U, even in China!

With marketisation, gender pay gaps increased.

But now it's closing, due to #StructuralTransformation & rising demand for white collar jobs in China

#thread Image
Until now, all the econ papers on China said that gender wage gaps were increasing due to #marketisation.

Gender wage gaps were higher in more marketised regions, & over time.

BUT

Omitted variable bias!! 👻👻👻

What about the stage of structural transformation...?
Capital-intensive manufacturing companies sought men as reliable workers

Construction boomed also

So even if men only had primary education, they still capitalised on rapid industrialisation, construction, & marketisation
Read 12 tweets
Another #tech bubble? There’s a lot of talk about the FANG mega-cap #growth companies leading the market, just like 2000. The #tech companies’ narrow leadership of the #SPX is a big reason perma-bears are hating on the #market. Right or wrong? Let’s take a closer look. (THREAD)
1/ In 1999 I did a deep dive on the top darling stocks to compare the lopsided leadership of the late 1990s to the early to mid-1970s. Earlier, during the 1960s, the cyclical #bullmarket from Oct. 1966 to Nov. 1968 produced a huge bubble in retail speculation.
2/ #Tech & space companies were big favorites. Then came the #recession of 1970 & a painful bear market that wiped out speculators. During that decline & recovery, institutional investors dominated the #stockmarket & were buying tried-and-true stocks with bulletproof #earnings.
Read 18 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 07/30/2020 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/07/30/dai…
Evolutionary origins of the SARS-CoV-2 sarbecovirus lineage responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic | Nature Microbiology

nature.com/articles/s4156…

#pandemic #evolutionary #origins #microbiology
Strike 1: Gold; Strike 2: Dollar; Strike 3: Inflation Expectations – Alhambra Investments

alhambrapartners.com/2020/07/28/str…

#inflation #gold #expectations #investments
Read 6 tweets
#DeepakNitrite manufactures Basic #Chemicals, Fine & Speciality Chemicals and Performance Products.
Major products of the company are #Phenol #Acetone #Cumene #DASDA #Inorganic Salts #Xylidines #Toluidines
#Revenue Mix and #Location details as below:
Company’s turnover entails from the Domestic Revenues which stood at 58% of Total Revenues and the rest 42% came from Exports
Recently company has started commercial production of #Isopropyl Alcohol #IPA.
Isopropyl alcohol is mixed with water for use as a rubbing-alcohol antiseptic. It is also used in aftershave lotions, hand lotions, and other cosmetics.
Read 26 tweets
For a virus that presents "few to no symptoms" for the majority, "U.S. Orders Up to 600 Million Doses of #Pfizer, BioNTech Covid #Vaccine" (Bloomberg).

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

So let's take a look at Pfizer.
"Pfizer is a publicly-traded global pharma corp.headquartered in NYC. Its revenues reached $52.5 billion in 2017. #Pfizer makes Advil, Xanax, #DepoProvera, Neosporin, #Lyrica & Dimetapp. Pfizer manufacturers more than 350 different pharmaceuticals & operates in 180 countries.
Pfizer's Lyrica, the new vallium, linked to depression, anxiety & suicide, now top pain medication on PBS. #Pregabalin #Addiction. Addicts of #hydromorphone (#Opioid) (Pfizer) have found a new addiction w/ #Lyrica. Capsules are opened, crushed & snorted.

thetimes.co.uk/article/drug-d…
Read 40 tweets
In the first of a four-part series on India's #growth challenge, @KwatraNikita and I look back at India's growth record since early '80s, and show why getting growth back on track is essential to tackle the country's most difficult problems.
#PlainFacts
livemint.com/news/india/the… Image
Everybody agrees that this year will be exceptionally bad for growth. But beyond that period, will we know for sure if growth is seeing a sharp rebound or faltering?
We examine this question in the second part of the series.
#PlainFacts #GDPParadox
livemint.com/news/india/fix… Image
In the third part of the series, we look at India's oft-neglected deficits in social infrastructure, which sap productivity, hurt #growth.
(The idea for the graphic came from a similar Ind-China comparison by @CafeEconomics years ago for #PlainFacts).
livemint.com/news/india/the… Image
Read 4 tweets
#Magnetism & #Electropotential
Are the #Energy #Fields of #Nature that create all #Geometry over all #scales of our #ElectromagneticUniverse. Vibrations that overlap, create wave-interferrence patterns aka Geometry.
Imagine a #vortex on each pole, spinning in opposite direction
It's these #two #spins that make up everything on fundamental level.

!Two spins! in a #specific #ratio.
#GoldenRatio !
#Fibonacci !

Two spins grinding against each other, originating from their common center-point.

You can find these two spins in absolutely everything.
Keep your eyes open to try to find the #Two #Spins of #Nature. Two vibrations #in #harmony, in #golden #ratio, therefore manifesting the fibonacci numbers
Two spins #equilibrating each other, playing in
#harmony
#symphony
#Vibration
#Interferrernce
#Geometry
Read 20 tweets
Jamais depuis 1999 l'écart de performance entre l'investissement #value et #growth sur une année n'a été si important. L'écart est supérieur à 33% sur les marchés Américains. #Thread Image
Sur 5 ans nous constatons également un delta significatif supérieur à dix points de performance. Image
Nos clients nous interrogent régulièrement sur cette thématique : doit-on s'attendre un retour en force de l'investissement value ? Synthèse de notre réponse ci-après et à votre disposition pour plus de détails.
Read 7 tweets
“The current #pandemic has accelerated #consumer needs; the demand for instant access to #financial #services and products from a #mobile phone seems inexhaustible. The #UK, therefore, is in a unique position to continue to unleash financial #technology…” reut.rs/3gAEQnK Image
Current socio-economic conditions are spurring on technologies that plug gaps in the market for the underbanked, who lack access to financial products & services, such as Investree in #Indonesia, joining us tomorrow morning for Future of Fintech in #SEAsia bit.ly/2VT511h Image
#Future of #Fintech in #SEAsia - 8 July, 9.30am - Joel Yarbrough is the VP for #AsiaPacific for @RapydPayments, a #global FinTech-as-a-service platform and is responsible leading their #growth efforts in the region, join here bit.ly/2BL1IlF #webinar #tech #finance #ASEAN Image
Read 3 tweets

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