$TSLA Q4 delivery cycle in 🇪🇺 :

Concrete signs of weak demand, thread with proof:

1. Overnight $TSLA "unhid" about 12 M3 LR from Q3 and Q2.

No miles, so no test-drive.
Yet offered as "demo" at significant discount.

5% off this beauty in the Netherlands, sitting in Tilburg:
2. Ireland:

The first boat #DonPasquale arrived 10-18, perhaps too late for Q4 cars to reach Ireland.

So most likely the *single* car that $TSLA sold in Ireland for all of October (a M3) must have been a spillover from arrivals in Q3, during which $TSLA sold 168 M3 (0 MY).
Ireland ctd:

All the more surprising then that $TSLA Ireland is now showing only *1 single unit* of M3 LR, produced too late to be on the #DonPasquale, but probably in transit on the #Talia that left Shanghai 10-02 and arrived in UK yesterday.
For all of Europe, some 212 units of M3 LR, produced between 09-29 and 10-26, are on offer.

Not a significant amount, but enough to conclude that $TSLA is NOT sold out for Europe.

212 is the lower limit, as some unsold inventory likely remains hidden.
3. Over to Norway.

31 units M3 SR+, produced between 08-31 and 09-30 are listed as "local inventory". That is 20 more than I counted last Friday, when I gave my first Q4 demand alert.

Norway ctd:

Some 21 M3 LR and 5 M3 P are now also listed on the $TSLA website, with mftr dates between 10-14 and 10-26.

So these are "in transit", on one of many more expected boats.
Norway ctd:

Last Friday, Norwegian #SGF troops counted about 150 $TSLA cars in the port of Drammen.

So possibly only 2/3 of those were matched to order. Could be less than that, as some inventory may be sitting in some DC already.
Since its introduction in Europe, there has not yet been a single unit of a MY offered out of local or in transit inventory (or demo).

Most likely $TSLA is throttling supply out of China to keep some backlog for if and when Brandenburg comes online.
On top of the Q2- and Q3-produced M3 LR that $TSLA unhides from time to time, there are also hundreds of used MX, MS and M3 that $TSLA is offering in 🇪🇺.

Another reason to limit supply of MY: discount the used cars more gradually (which has resulted in slow flow rate).

$TSLAQ

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with The Naked Caller

The Naked Caller Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @CallerNaked

2 Nov
Very weak OCT21 car sales out of 🇨🇭.

Part shortages are still to blame.

OEM are clearly allocating scarce parts with priority to BEV, PHEV and MHEV, allowing those to maintain 50% of the market.

This is without help from $TSLA which registered only 58 cars for the month. Image
$TSLA OCT21 sales were also very weak in other 🇪🇺 for which data is already available (Spain, Netherlands, Norway, Finland, Ireland, Sweden).

The bulk of 2 ship-loads of $TSLA that arrived in OCT21 should show up in NOV21.

Raw $TSLA market share data for 🇨🇭: Image
There is no sign yet of any "dampen the quarterly wave" in the raw data above.

The smoothed data shows continuation of the long-term downward trend of $TSLA market share.

With 2 more months we will get a first measure of degree of M3 cannibalization by MY. Image
Read 4 tweets
23 Oct
What is Troy trying to achieve here?
Walk back expectations in case Q4 underwhelms?

This whole "dampen the wave" is starting to sound very suspicious...

Let's look at some cold hard facts out of Europe.

Thread:
Boats for Q4 left SHG a full 20 days earlier than previous quarters.

And the trip took less long, so that the first 3 boats for Q4 arrived a full 26-29 days *earlier* than first boats for Q3!
So "all other things being equal" we should expect daily deliveries in NL, SP and NO, for which such data is available, to pick up in the next coming days, apace with the record-setting Q3, just drawn forward in time.

Mind you Troy expects 54k for 🇪🇺 in Q4 vs 46k in Q3!
Read 6 tweets
23 Sep
The $TSLA European Q3 deliveries look set to prove one of the main $TSLAQ bear arguments, making the record-setting absolute deliveries irrelevant:

💠Q3 reveals the cannibalization of M3 by MY.
💠New model pipeline is now effectively empty.

A lethal combination!
Norway alone is soaking up 1/3rd of the 15k MY that @TroyTeslike estimates for all of Europe for Q3.

This can be attributed to pent-up orders that were supposed to be gradually filled from Brandenburg factory. So this won't be repeated in Q4.

But Norway is always special case.
How about Netherlands, where subsidies have been stable throughout 2021?

There, M3 registrations have fallen to the bottom of top 20. $TSLA overall only manages 6th place at < 6.0% market share.

Netherlands is wealthy and prosperous relative to European average.
Read 7 tweets
23 Sep
So where are we again in the $TSLA European Q3 delivery cycle?

Why, we are at the point where "in transit" inventory has become local, but not all those local cars have been matched to order yet. So close to end of quarter...

Time to get out the *** DISCOUNTS !!! ***
These M3 LR for Swiss market are now labeled as "demonstration model" even though they have no miles on them.

The LR MIC was already 2000 CHF cheaper due to Chinese battery and slightly lower range.

Now the discount is almost 4000 CHF or over 7%!
Another approach is to sell real demo models, or test drive cars, with some miles on them, at discount.

That is what is happening in UK right now:

Discount is about 7% for LR, 5% for P models, all produced in Q2.
Read 4 tweets
24 Mar
$TSLA Q1 deliveries in 🇪🇺:

Most data points towards "ok" quarter:
🔹Ship tracker
🔹Deliveries trackers by country
🔹National $TSLA sites
🔹my own #SGF reports

But this "ok" quarter seems to come at a cost of unsustainable one-offs. Not to mention

🔹Price cuts

Thread:
Ship tracker:

Bulls claim "record" 10 ships to 🇪🇺, beating 9 for Q4 2020 and 7 for Q4 2019.

This may lead to a record in UK, which got RHD supply from 3 boats from Shanghai, in answer to *new* BEV incentives.

But rest of 🇪🇺 had to do with 7 ships vs 9 last Q (7 SFO + 2 SHG).
National delivery trackers:

NL+NO+SP seems more in line with Q1 or Q3 2020.
Far cry from Q4 2019 or Q4 2020.

Country $TSLA delivery data shows "ok" JAN+FEB, but declining market share. And definitely worse product mix as S and X have become negligible.
Read 9 tweets
7 Mar
Elon tweets about FSD not simply to pump the stock.

Seems like with all those recent price cuts, FSD makes the difference between selling 2020 inventory at a profit of a loss, both in case of new or used car.

Let's look at just one particular *used* VIN in 🇨🇭 : Image
There are still 17 used M3 on offer in 🇨🇭, and 6 of them are loaded with FSD. In early February that FSD option was basically valued at zero.

At same time only 2 new inventory car had FSD option, see earlier tweet

By Feb 15th *none* of the 120 new inventory M3 had FSD.

The option reappeared couple of days later, and as of this moment 36 of the 166 listed cars have FSD option!

Before only P specs had FSD. Now 12P, 24 AWD and even 1 SR+ have it.
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(