1. Overnight $TSLA "unhid" about 12 M3 LR from Q3 and Q2.
No miles, so no test-drive.
Yet offered as "demo" at significant discount.
5% off this beauty in the Netherlands, sitting in Tilburg:
2. Ireland:
The first boat #DonPasquale arrived 10-18, perhaps too late for Q4 cars to reach Ireland.
So most likely the *single* car that $TSLA sold in Ireland for all of October (a M3) must have been a spillover from arrivals in Q3, during which $TSLA sold 168 M3 (0 MY).
Ireland ctd:
All the more surprising then that $TSLA Ireland is now showing only *1 single unit* of M3 LR, produced too late to be on the #DonPasquale, but probably in transit on the #Talia that left Shanghai 10-02 and arrived in UK yesterday.
For all of Europe, some 212 units of M3 LR, produced between 09-29 and 10-26, are on offer.
Not a significant amount, but enough to conclude that $TSLA is NOT sold out for Europe.
212 is the lower limit, as some unsold inventory likely remains hidden.
3. Over to Norway.
31 units M3 SR+, produced between 08-31 and 09-30 are listed as "local inventory". That is 20 more than I counted last Friday, when I gave my first Q4 demand alert.
Some 21 M3 LR and 5 M3 P are now also listed on the $TSLA website, with mftr dates between 10-14 and 10-26.
So these are "in transit", on one of many more expected boats.
Norway ctd:
Last Friday, Norwegian #SGF troops counted about 150 $TSLA cars in the port of Drammen.
So possibly only 2/3 of those were matched to order. Could be less than that, as some inventory may be sitting in some DC already.
Since its introduction in Europe, there has not yet been a single unit of a MY offered out of local or in transit inventory (or demo).
Most likely $TSLA is throttling supply out of China to keep some backlog for if and when Brandenburg comes online.
On top of the Q2- and Q3-produced M3 LR that $TSLA unhides from time to time, there are also hundreds of used MX, MS and M3 that $TSLA is offering in 🇪🇺.
Another reason to limit supply of MY: discount the used cars more gradually (which has resulted in slow flow rate).
$TSLAQ
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Boats for Q4 left SHG a full 20 days earlier than previous quarters.
And the trip took less long, so that the first 3 boats for Q4 arrived a full 26-29 days *earlier* than first boats for Q3!
So "all other things being equal" we should expect daily deliveries in NL, SP and NO, for which such data is available, to pick up in the next coming days, apace with the record-setting Q3, just drawn forward in time.
Mind you Troy expects 54k for 🇪🇺 in Q4 vs 46k in Q3!
So where are we again in the $TSLA European Q3 delivery cycle?
Why, we are at the point where "in transit" inventory has become local, but not all those local cars have been matched to order yet. So close to end of quarter...
Time to get out the *** DISCOUNTS !!! ***
These M3 LR for Swiss market are now labeled as "demonstration model" even though they have no miles on them.
The LR MIC was already 2000 CHF cheaper due to Chinese battery and slightly lower range.
Now the discount is almost 4000 CHF or over 7%!
Another approach is to sell real demo models, or test drive cars, with some miles on them, at discount.
That is what is happening in UK right now:
Discount is about 7% for LR, 5% for P models, all produced in Q2.
Elon tweets about FSD not simply to pump the stock.
Seems like with all those recent price cuts, FSD makes the difference between selling 2020 inventory at a profit of a loss, both in case of new or used car.
Let's look at just one particular *used* VIN in 🇨🇭 :
There are still 17 used M3 on offer in 🇨🇭, and 6 of them are loaded with FSD. In early February that FSD option was basically valued at zero.
At same time only 2 new inventory car had FSD option, see earlier tweet