As usual this week's summary had basic road map for
Cryptos
Indexes
Also mentioned commodities this time, don't always
And safe havens VIX TLT DXY GLD I combine but don't expect them all to move together
And higher in that thread, was a few tweets about the FOMC, summed to
"means more push up on indexes and & prefer cryptos back to highs
Yes, even if taper announced - an expectation thing, because 120B per month adjusted to 105B or whatever... is still going UP"
Literally everything
What I wrote for all of this has happened
Safe-havens are helping confirm that risk-trades under pressure now with -
VIX 11/3-4 low, 11/3 probably the close low
TLT 11/3 pullback low
DXY 11/2-3 with close test 11/4 today up pretty strong, pressuring cryptos
GLD 11/3 low up today despite DXY which is some tell
Marko Kolanovic (head quant JPM) cannot do this in his dreams with 100 quants and I'm doing it for many if not most weeks!!
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Image for indexes & cryptos
Weaker assets tend to get hit sooner and harder
Worst is into 10-Nov area, with some other low 12-Nov
Obv indexes have been flying and ETH still powering up
SPX in massive bull from covid low but weekly band overshoot of this size is rare
Combine with sentiment and longer term pivot resistance, astro this week not so nice
Some pause due, hence the STOP sign
But actually I'm thinking higher highs later in Nov or early Dec
I rec'd to watch safe havens last week (along with FXI short) because of a few things, and interesting to see VIX TLT GLD all making a move with stocks so strong
Think these will continue into coming week 10-Nov area
Remember nearly everything I am about to quote was written last Sunday 10/31 either in the Google Sheet (link now in bio) or in the tweet summary.
Indexes: "Expecting up for trading top 11/3-5; following week down pressure"
Up into 11/5!
☑️☑️☑️
But for scoring giving myself a 4 (scale 1-5) since I called a top call yesterday. This was like an own goal. If I thought about the EE#, and data collection period, beat likely.
Cryptos: "Still prefer rally into 11/3-5 trading top."
Pretty good! Also some cryptos topped on the early side compared to indexes, per this follow up tweet.
Still think early new month, bulls in charge, better astro
11/1-3 at least, possibly through 11/5 means more push up on indexes and & prefer cryptos back to highs
Yes, even if taper announced - an expectation thing, because 120B per month adjusted to 105B or whatever...
Is still going UP!
But whatever highs form 11/3-5 looks like decent trading top, because following week more challenged
Also to be clear, don't think 11/3-5 is major top, should get another push up later Nov or early Dec & that probably more important